Collinsville Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If every model agreed with the GFS general depiction I'd probably go 1-3 most areas in CT and maybe 3-6 out by you. It's just an ugly setup. 0.27" of liquid with 1.2" snow. I can envision it already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah Ray.....2-5 sounds reasonable with rates and slop factor. Hopefully GFS is correct but when has it been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 who's got the link to the updated GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The GGEM is a glancing blow followed by a norlun kind of signature Thursday night and Friday morning. Oh god not again... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah Ray.....2-5 sounds reasonable with rates and slop factor. Hopefully GFS is correct but when has it been? MOS numbers still bullish. NAM MOS is a good chuckle for ORH. I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Westborough is different than Westford - but that number tracks close (about .3 higher) to what I can add up. I wish wundermap had total QPF - not just frame by frame.I meant Westford but somewhere in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just toss the Euro and forecast that will work Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Some more 09z SREF stuff. That's 24"+ for areas just SW of BOS. 601138_522964004413857_823469640_n.jpg lol my brother lives in N. Attleboro. He gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Whiff on main event, with Norlun snow showers for Portsmouth. Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM coming in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM is the same, it's north with the surface low and the mid-level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 As usual Ray is jackpotted on the Euro and GFS and he is Debbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM is a much better phase than last nights run. Colder and wetter here. Sorry Debbies....you'll have to hope the Euro buckles to pooh on the parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM looks a bit better than last night...its the other model aside from the Euro that has made only small trends in this system from run to run...its been inching north like the Euro. Hasn't had any wild swings yet (at least in the past 4 or 5 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The GGEM is a glancing blow followed by a norlun kind of signature Thursday night and Friday morning. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not sure if it means anything down the road but Indianapolis was forecasting 3-6'' some models up to 8. But its been 36 and rain all morning which is not what's forrcasted FWIW I pulled up 18z NAM forecast ptype and compared to ptype radar. Looks like the NAM was right on. Not sure what other models showed for that area, though. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/nerad25.jpg http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lolnot true Ray its a great hit for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 As usual Ray is jackpotted on the Euro and GFS and he is Debbie I'm seriously miffed at some of the comments in here. What are peoples expectations with this? Even if it ends up a 3-6" type deal, that is not meh in my book. I'm in the 2-4" expectation world right now, even though a lot of guidance is giving me 10-12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM is a much better phase than last nights run. Colder and wetter here. Sorry Debbies....you'll have to hope the Euro buckles to pooh on the parade. Rollo rolling with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 no its noti checked their site. They have mixes precip becoming all snow. Their 850s are borderline however but plain rain wasnt forecasted. Hi to the NE crowd. Was surfing around and saw this and had to comment. No surprises happening anywhere in the OH-IN-IL region right now. As ORH mentioned, the main show for central IN thru OH isnt suppose to occur until this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I dunno if people want to rip and read QPF output that's fine. There's a chance it verifies. I just don't like the look. Not sure what else there is to add. Yea....it's a mess...marginal, and dependant upon heavy rates, as guidance trends less amped.Not the recipe for a major snow. If you get 1.5" of QPF protracted over a 48 hour window, you aren't getting anywhere near 15" of snow lol...more like 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm seriously miffed at some of the comments in here. What are peoples expectations with this? Even if it ends up a 3-6" type deal, that is not meh in my book. I'm in the 2-4" expectation world right now, even though a lot of guidance is giving me 10-12"+.It never bothers me I think 8-12 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 not true Ray its a great hit for you Prob gives him a foot...but its pretty meh back in CT...esp west of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yea....it's a mess...marginal, and dependant upon heavy rates, as guidance trends less amped. Not the recipe for a major snow. yeah any time a model nickle and dimes me to 1" of liquid spread out over 48 hours through 3 or 4 different mechanisms I say meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Rollo rolling with it. Will points out that the GGEM changes have been minor. Pre-change it was one of my favorite this winter with the scrapers. I'm a little edgy with it now post change as we have no track record. Also, the Euro...like I said inside of 48-60 it will school every other model most of the time. Has been woeful 72-100ish this winter with the scrapers but it's a recognizable flaw that we can plan on. Take the 12z GGEM and Euro compromise, and I said that before I saw the GGEM. Toss the NCEP stuff and the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm seriously miffed at some of the comments in here. What are peoples expectations with this? Even if it ends up a 3-6" type deal, that is not meh in my book. I'm in the 2-4" expectation world right now, even though a lot of guidance is giving me 10-12"+. I'm just a little perplexed at the model bashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice to see Ggem on board for solid hit. Euro will tickle NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro has been trending more robust for each of the last 4 cycles. GGEM has been gradually trending more robust. GFS/SREFS are backing off somewhat from their ridiculous over the top solutions. Still looks good for eastern areas but a tight gradient to the W and NW. BOX laid it out perfectly with their 3 scenarios. 1. Warm and wet (looks like this one is least likely imo) 2. Cold and E MA jackpot (most models showing this) 3. Whiff SE Looks like we're between 2 and 3 with most models agreeing on 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm seriously miffed at some of the comments in here. What are peoples expectations with this? Even if it ends up a 3-6" type deal, that is not meh in my book. I'm in the 2-4" expectation world right now, even though a lot of guidance is giving me 10-12"+.I agree with you.In which post have I whined? Apparently being skeptical of heavy snows constitues being a "debby"...It's ok to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yeah any time a model nickle and dimes me to 1" of liquid spread out over 48 hours through 3 or 4 different mechanisms I say meh. Exactly......I'd honestly just assume not have it...no bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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