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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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Its definitely going to be very difficult to figure out exactly how the LLJ firehose sets up off the Atlantic...the Ukie barely gets it into SE MA...GFS does bring it decently north, but just not as far inland (still giving coastal ME/PWM over an inch of qpf)...RGEM looks like it would be probably in between.

 

But if this starts to sag back SE a bit over the next 24 hours, then nobody will see much of anything. Maybe a few inches in the hills...perhaps some in SE MA. We'll just have to see how the whole thing evolves...I remember that one 00z suite about 48 hours out before the blizzard all went SE and then the Euro came in stout again...will be interesting to see the Euro this time...see if it holds steady or even tries to tick NW while all the other models seem to have more wild swings.

 

GFS is virtually the only model getting precip this far north, That's why i have a hard time buying into this storm up here anyways

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Lol at the end it's colder and puts down 6-18 across the region and some are in the lawn thread, as Kev would say what in the Sam Hell is going on in here?

We all do not live in eastern new england.........The GFS and its Ens were locked and loaded for consecutive runs, they just completely pulled the plug and give people here a borderline dusting.  I am happy for eastern mass........and hope this se trend is over for there sake.

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Lol at the end it's colder and puts down 6-18 across the region and some are in the lawn thread, as Kev would say what in the Sam Hell is going on in here?

 

If every model agreed with the GFS general depiction I'd probably go 1-3 most areas in CT and maybe 3-6 out by you. It's just an ugly setup. 

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We all do not live in eastern new england.........The GFS and its Ens were locked and loaded for consecutive runs, they just completely pulled the plug and give people here a borderline dusting.  I am happy for eastern mass........and hope this se trend is over for there sake.

This. Usually it's one or two wierd GFS runs, but it took seven runs of the GFS and nine of the GEFS to figure out it was out to lunch. When somethings locked in for that long, you feel like you have to beleive it, and of course, right after you accept it, it pulls the rug out on you. From now on, my forecasts are miniumum 70/30 EURO, GFS is on autotoss, it's that useless, you can't beleive what it's showing even inside 36 hours anymore.

 

-skisheep

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Not sure if it means anything down the road but Indianapolis was forecasting 3-6'' some models up to 8. But its been 36 and rain all morning which is not what's forrcasted

 

 

Its not supposed to snow there until tonight. The drizzle and mid 30s was expected at this point.

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This. Usually it's one or two wierd GFS runs, but it took seven runs of the GFS and nine of the GEFS to figure out it was out to lunch. When somethings locked in for that long, you feel like you have to beleive it, and of course, right after you accept it, it pulls the rug out on you. From now on, my forecasts are miniumum 70/30 EURO, GFS is on autotoss, it's that useless, you can't beleive what it's showing even inside 36 hours anymore.

 

-skisheep

 

your words read as though it's Saturday and it's post -mortem on the event.   

 

duh, nothings happened yet - you don't know.   

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your words read as though it's Saturday and it's post -mortem on the event.   

 

duh, nothings happened yet - you don't know.   

No, we don't know anything, but the fact that it caved to the EURO as a massive shift after seven runs and inside 36 hours is a failure, no other way to spin it.

 

I've given up anything more than 6" here unless the EURO pulls a JMA, but I think 2-4" still has a shot.

-skisheep

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your words read as though it's Saturday and it's post -mortem on the event.   

 

duh, nothings happened yet - you don't know.   

 

Well...the NCEP stuff was tossable the last several runs and I think I said as much.   It's just that people want to believe. 

 

It's job was done in signaling the threat, from here on out ride the Euro, or perhaps a Euro/GGEM compromise.

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Westboro had over 1.5 qpf and 15 of snow on the Euro

 

Westborough is different than Westford - but that number tracks close (about .3 higher) to what I can add up.  I wish wundermap had total QPF - not just frame by frame.

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