OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol the euro had no precip in SNE just a few runs ago. omg the gfs sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Another thing that worries me. Without dynamics, no one is getting anything beyond meh. There is not cold air....currently upper 30s in Caribou and near freezing in Quebec City. Not good. Elephant in the room today as it was in 2010 (but that was 2/20 I believe). Wetbulbed and colder air actually gets worked in as I mentioned earlier this morning. But your idea is valid too. That's what concerned me late last night. The normally torch gfs is cold though and we'll see what the euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This was never a NE storm or for that matter NYC. Mid Atlantic deserves this storm after all the misses this winter. He'll this won't even come close to Nemo. Have a good day. Hope you guys pull off atleast 1-2 inches I hope they get 3 feet but we'll see you at verificatoin time meat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And maybe...just maybe, people will understand the reluctance to put out public scares last night and today so far. It may be warranted but this situation is not at all etched in stone. I actually disagree, usually by 36 hours the GFS has figued out it's problems, it's rare that 24 hours(down here) before the event starts it caves so dramatically, and at that time frame the public has to start preparing if it's going to be big, which all models were hinting at. Was expecting it, but not to this extreme. Someone at NECP needs to look at that model, six runs in a row and then this drastic shift, combined with 12 for 12 on the ensembles 6 runs in a row, is unacceptable. I was a fan of it because I thought it figured out it's problems when it didn't cave at 48 hours or 36 hours, but now, it's failure is just more obvious. Looks like Upton is going to verify, still think they made the wrong call last night, but this proves them to be correct. Imagine if it hadn't caved though, and that's why they made the wrong call... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol the euro had no precip in SNE just a few runs ago. omg the gfs sucks! Say BDL sneaks out 0.25" liquid... Euro had 0" a couple runs ago while gfs and ensembles had run and run of 2" liquid and heavy snow nearly to Canada lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Another thing that worries me. Without dynamics, no one is getting anything beyond meh. There is not cold air....currently upper 30s in Caribou and near freezing in Quebec City. Not good. Elephant in the room today as it was in 2010 (but that was 2/20 I believe). ding ding ding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Say BDL sneaks out 0.25" liquid... Euro had 0" a couple runs ago while gfs and ensembles had run and run of 2" liquid and heavy snow nearly to Canada lol But to his point....it now has 2 inches for me and it had nada 24 hours ago...(at least the prior night's 0Z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Say BDL sneaks out 0.25" liquid... Euro had 0" a couple runs ago while gfs and ensembles had run and run of 2" liquid and heavy snow nearly to Canada lol The GFS gave us a blizzard, its ensembles were on board........its mistakes greatly impact sensible weather, I can live with a Euro miss then anty up to a couple few inches, going from feet of snow to .25 in qpf in two runs is just horrific, its not even debatable on the impacts of real weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Say BDL sneaks out 0.25" liquid... Euro had 0" a couple runs ago while gfs and ensembles had run and run of 2" liquid and heavy snow nearly to Canada lol Really bad. NCEP should be ashamed. This is like 1985 with regard to the GFS....just awful and unusable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's the good thing I suppose, but hopefully it's right with the moisture train. When you get these arms of theta e moving north I feel like models can botch the placement or intensity of it. We are getting close so I think they have the idea correct but placement is key. Its definitely going to be very difficult to figure out exactly how the LLJ firehose sets up off the Atlantic...the Ukie barely gets it into SE MA...GFS does bring it decently north, but just not as far inland (still giving coastal ME/PWM over an inch of qpf)...RGEM looks like it would be probably in between. But if this starts to sag back SE a bit over the next 24 hours, then nobody will see much of anything. Maybe a few inches in the hills...perhaps some in SE MA. We'll just have to see how the whole thing evolves...I remember that one 00z suite about 48 hours out before the blizzard all went SE and then the Euro came in stout again...will be interesting to see the Euro this time...see if it holds steady or even tries to tick NW while all the other models seem to have more wild swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BDL only getting .25 lol?? Euro has 1.00 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I actually disagree, usually by 36 hours the GFS has figued out it's problems, it's rare that 24 hours(down here) before the event starts it caves so dramatically, and at that time frame the public has to start preparing if it's going to be big, which all models were hinting at. Was expecting it, but not to this extreme. Someone at NECP needs to look at that model, six runs in a row and then this drastic shift, combined with 12 for 12 on the ensembles 6 runs in a row, is unacceptable. I was a fan of it because I thought it figured out it's problems when it didn't cave at 48 hours or 36 hours, but now, it's failure is just more obvious. Looks like Upton is going to verify, still think they made the wrong call last night, but this proves them to be correct. Imagine if it hadn't caved though, and that's why they made the wrong call... -skisheep This has actually been the trend most of the winter. The problem was we first had to determine was this a "regionwide" event or a "scraper"...the former and the GFS tends to be overdone. We kind of ruled that out at 18z yesterday when the GFS started to show some cracks and certainly by 0z last night. In every case with the scraper category even the non-ncep stuff has over-reached for a run or 2. Not usually to this degree. I mean we're talking a couple of times the Euro would paint .5" back to Boston and in the end Phil would get .3" type of event, not the type of deal where the Euro has almost 2" of QPF and ends up back at Partly cloudy. The ratio was roughly 50-60% for the non-ncep high, that said the Euro I'd think will be down in the .6 to 1" range this run, unless the GFS and NAM are still onto something. (for the south shore/boston area) The UK blows, not a model I care much about, and the GGEM...we don't have a track record with this "revised" model yet. One thing is almost certain, at this time range, despite how bad it was getting the storm here, the Euro will tool the other models from here on out MOST of the time. This seems to be an almost impossible shift for many. They can't make the mental break in this last 18-24 hours that the GFS was great at signaling a threat, but there's that time when you have to quickly switch to the Euro/GGEM combo and even probably realize that they are overdone for a brief time. The handoff is likely complete with the 12z Euro...and at that point it's really time to ignore the NCEP guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So, Will, you must have even less confidence now. 2-24" first call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Say BDL sneaks out 0.25" liquid... Euro had 0" a couple runs ago while gfs and ensembles had run and run of 2" liquid and heavy snow nearly to Canada lol well yeah...that isn't exactly a fair way to do verification...but a couple runs ago the Euro had boston with nothing...now it has like 2" of qpf. We'll see how it shakes out....but the models handled this one poorly in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z GFS, meh snow totals thru 72h. fyi, that orange area is 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol the euro had no precip in SNE just a few runs ago. omg the gfs sucks! it's all bs - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z GFS, meh snow totals thru 72h. fyi, that orange area is 12"+. 12zgfssnowdepth072.gif Pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z GFS, meh snow totals thru 72h. fyi, that orange area is 12"+. 12zgfssnowdepth072.gif That's Kevin's worst nightmare right there. I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So, Will, you must have even less confidence now. 2-24" first call? Maybe I'll forecast 7-8" and run away from this like Feb 24th...it worked out in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z GFS, meh snow totals thru 72h. fyi, that orange area is 12"+. 12zgfssnowdepth072.gif very meh. I mean come on folks, isn't this what everyone has dreamed of? Major major gradient from KTOL to KGAY with a bullseye of KORH. This solution is the storm everyone has been begging for, and all we get is heavy meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BDL only getting .25 lol?? Euro has 1.00 there no it doesn't. Wunderground looks about 0.60" on the 00z euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 no it doesn't. Wunderground looks about 0.60" on the 00z euro run. They were close to an inch on my maps...HFD looked like an inch...BDL maybe more like 0.80"...but a chunk of that was form that rogue inverted trough the Euro had as the storm exited. So the totals in western SNE were a bit more precarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 given how great Feb was, any additional snow is just a bonus to pad totals, its march either way it won't stick around too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 no it doesn't. Wunderground looks about 0.60" on the 00z euro run. We were told it had.75 from west of BDL to ORE and 1.00 from Hfd east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Maybe I'll forecast 7-8" and run away from this like Feb 24th...it worked out in that one. Just hope it doesn't turn into a 2/10/10 lol. I guess I would go with 6-12" for Worcester county. Not very high confidence as I could see you getting higher for sure but if I had to make a call that would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 no it doesn't. Wunderground looks about 0.60" on the 00z euro run. WeatherBell has the 0.7" contour right over BDL. *edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A little surprised there's no watches out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just hope it doesn't turn into a 2/10/10 lol. I guess I would go with 6-12" for Worcester county. Not very high confidence as I could see you getting higher for sure but if I had to make a call that would be it. Well I think unlike 2/10/10, we'll know if this sucks 12 hours before it starts or not. So on that front, I hope we have better forecasts out as the storm starts...but hopefully by 12 hours out, I am not forecasting 2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Could someone tell me how to get a QPF read out from the EC with the wundermaps? I don't see the option in the drop down list of "map types". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They were close to an inch on my maps...HFD looked like an inch...BDL maybe more like 0.80"...but a chunk of that was form that rogue inverted trough the Euro had as the storm exited. So the totals in western SNE were a bit more precarious. yeah that was the only time they had decent precip...the rest was really light I guess it's tough to add up but the vast majority of the time BDL was in the .01-.05 contour or the .05-.10 contour in the 3hr. I added it again and got 0.80" this time. I wish wunderground had total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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