Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 1.25'+ for all of SE MA/ CC thru 66h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 only the GFS can go from northern outlier to southern outlier in 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 How can two people looking at the same thing see such differences?He doesn't know where Tolland is I guess. I'm right on the 12-16 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS is just a garbage model. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 UNC backed off as well. Overtrend has corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 1.25'+ for all of SE MA/ CC thru 66h. 1.5"+ @ 72h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS is just a garbage model. Awful. lol, We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS caving as usual. WE all expected it to cave yesterday...instead it hooked us all in and then caves today....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Couple more runs and it will be back to a DC event.......................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 He doesn't know where Tolland is I guess. I'm right on the 12-16 line Keep looking son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And maybe...just maybe, people will understand the reluctance to put out public scares last night and today so far. It may be warranted but this situation is not at all etched in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z GFS will actually be lighter on the QPF over eastern NE than the 00z Euro was. It's over 1.5" by 72 hours and still going. The GFS is such a break from even the other 2 models so far, I will ride the Euro at this juncture. if it dumps OTS, that's the way to go. But I expect again this just to play out like we've seen all year which is that the Euro was probably "stalling" too far SW, which will shift everything seaward a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS is now Half the Snowstorm the EURO is. The EURO Fiiinally says "ok ok GFS you win I'll come north" and when it does the GFS goes back out to sea! WTH? At least Rain is almost out of the question. GFS still called the North trend Big time, but this latest move is killing our congrats party for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Glancing blow, a couple inches in CT, meh. Maybe some weenie totals over a small area of SNE but I'm becoming more convinced that this storm will be by and large NBD for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Uncle is pedestrian to minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And maybe...just maybe, people will understand the reluctance to put out public scares last night and today so far. It may be warranted but this situation is not at all etched in stone. I agree Jerry, both BOX and OKX have handled this very well. I really hope you guys can get a decent storm out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ukie looks prettty ugly too...its still good for SE MA and perhaps BOS...but even back to ORH its probably only advisory at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Glancing blow, a couple inches in CT, meh. Maybe some weenie totals over a small area of SNE but I'm becoming more convinced that this storm will be by and large NBD for snow. If the euro goes se, then yeah it's probably not a huge deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Glancing blow, a couple inches in CT, meh. Maybe some weenie totals over a small area of SNE but I'm becoming more convinced that this storm will be by and large NBD for snow. Quit poo-pooing my snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And maybe...just maybe, people will understand the reluctance to put out public scares last night and today so far. It may be warranted but this situation is not at all etched in stone. According to some posters yesterday the alarm should have been sounded for big totals only to become another major bust, Putting maps out 3-4 days in advance of any storm is just plain stupid, The public does not need that much warning, Its winter using the normal protocol by the NWS has worked for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 These further SE solutions though are alot colder for E MA...so it will have less trouble accumulating there. Very cold soundings on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Another thing that worries me. Without dynamics, no one is getting anything beyond meh. There is not cold air....currently upper 30s in Caribou and near freezing in Quebec City. Not good. Elephant in the room today as it was in 2010 (but that was 2/20 I believe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This was never a NE storm or for that matter NYC. Mid Atlantic deserves this storm after all the misses this winter. He'll this won't even come close to Nemo. Have a good day. Hope you guys pull off atleast 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Quickly becoming unreadable from one GFS run lol. Give it till the euro at least folks. Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 These further SE solutions though are alot colder for E MA...so it will have less trouble accumulating there. Very cold soundings on the GFS. That's the good thing I suppose, but hopefully it's right with the moisture train. When you get these arms of theta e moving north I feel like models can botch the placement or intensity of it. We are getting close so I think they have the idea correct but placement is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the euro goes se, then yeah it's probably not a huge deal. I'm thinking it does too....what a tease the last 2 days have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And maybe...just maybe, people will understand the reluctance to put out public scares last night and today so far. It may be warranted but this situation is not at all etched in stone. For eastern New England there's a big difference between headlining a wind driven storm potential and treating it like a passing shower. If Harv and Pete were working this week it'd have been different. So 4 models, all 4 are quite different at 500mb by 48 hours. I really don't understand what is going on, or why they're having this difficulty all of a sudden in breaking like they are. Must be the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This was never a NE storm or for that matter NYC. Mid Atlantic deserves this storm after all the misses this winter. He'll this won't even come close to Nemo. Have a good day. Hope you guys pull off atleast 1-2 inches great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Glancing blow, a couple inches in CT, meh. Maybe some weenie totals over a small area of SNE but I'm becoming more convinced that this storm will be by and large NBD for snow. You did a real nice job of not jumping on the bandwagon when other non-met posters did. I agree that this is a complicated forecast but the pros are the pros when it comes to the tough ones! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Also, all the bellyaching about the GFS when the low actually makes a reasonably close pass. It just compacted the QPF and of course is not giving armageddon amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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