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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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12z GFS will actually be lighter on the QPF over eastern NE than the 00z Euro was.

 

It's over 1.5" by 72 hours and still going.  The GFS is such a break from even the other 2 models so far, I will ride the Euro at this juncture.  if it dumps OTS, that's the way to go.  But I expect again this just to play out like we've seen all year which is that the Euro was probably "stalling" too far SW, which will shift everything seaward a bit.

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And maybe...just maybe, people will understand the reluctance to put out public scares last night and today so far. It may be warranted but this situation is not at all etched in stone.

I agree Jerry, both BOX and OKX have handled this very well.  I really hope you guys can get a decent storm out of this 

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And maybe...just maybe, people will understand the reluctance to put out public scares last night and today so far. It may be warranted but this situation is not at all etched in stone.

 

According to some posters yesterday the alarm should have been sounded for big totals only to become another major bust, Putting maps out 3-4 days in advance of any storm is just plain stupid, The public does not need that much warning, Its winter using the normal protocol by the NWS has worked for years

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Another thing that worries me. Without dynamics, no one is getting anything beyond meh. There is not cold air....currently upper 30s in Caribou and near freezing in Quebec City. Not good. Elephant in the room today as it was in 2010 (but that was 2/20 I believe).

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This was never a NE storm or for that matter NYC. Mid Atlantic deserves this storm after all the misses this winter. He'll this won't even come close to Nemo. Have a good day. Hope you guys pull off atleast 1-2 inches

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These further SE solutions though are alot colder for E MA...so it will have less trouble accumulating there. Very cold soundings on the GFS.

That's the good thing I suppose, but hopefully it's right with the moisture train. When you get these arms of theta e moving north I feel like models can botch the placement or intensity of it. We are getting close so I think they have the idea correct but placement is key.

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And maybe...just maybe, people will understand the reluctance to put out public scares last night and today so far. It may be warranted but this situation is not at all etched in stone.

 

For eastern New England there's a big difference between headlining a wind driven storm potential and treating it like a passing shower.  If Harv and Pete were working this week it'd have been different.

 

So 4 models, all 4 are quite different at 500mb by 48 hours.  I really don't understand what is going on, or why they're having this difficulty all of a sudden in breaking like they are.  Must be the block.

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Glancing blow, a couple inches in CT, meh. Maybe some weenie totals over a small area of SNE but I'm becoming more convinced that this storm will be by and large NBD for snow.

 

You did a real nice job of not jumping on the bandwagon when other non-met posters did.  I agree that this is a complicated forecast but the pros are the pros when it comes to the tough ones!

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