Cold Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 With regards to Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 meh. I like your spot for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Do those plumes ever verify? I always see them referenced but do they work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thanks for the excellent explanation. In a nutshell, if the NAM has the synoptics right it'll score a coup, but if we look at synoptic verification scores for GFS vs NAM past 48 hrs or better Euro vs NAM, this is a no brainer on which model camp will probably be more right come verification time. Well it shows us what our various scenarios are for this storm. The NAM represents a plausible outcome. But signs point towards the interaction with that shortwave over the Lakes being the critical player. The NAM misses the phase, the Euro is later, the GFS aggressively drives it SE and phases earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 meh. Not placing much faith in those. They always seem weenieish to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Do those plumes ever verify? I always see them referenced but do they work? Verified here within a 1/4" on the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This would look just like that event in 2010 if the s/w to the NW didn't exist. Really not all that close of an analog, JMHO. Weak comparison. it wouldn't be an analog if it were exactly the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 How are you feeling for our area? lots of QPF potentially, temps are a worry for me. I'm playing it conservative right now. QPF will not be an issue in my mind. Euro/SREFs are just a plastering. Surface temps will be in the 30s so we'll need dynamics to keep us all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Do those plumes ever verify? I always see them referenced but do they work? They did ok in the blizzard...but they have been overdone in several other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They did ok in the blizzard...but they have been overdone in several other storms.Yeah I recall a few Maine guys posting them the last few storms and I didn't remember the amounts being that high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 They did ok in the blizzard...but they have been overdone in several other storms. Norlun....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Verified here within a 1/4" on the blizzardThey can be weenieish. Some of the members gave you and I 50-70" for the blizz. I think inside 24hrs the mean isn't too bad. There's decent SREF spread still though, so I'd personally be hesitant in putting faith in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think it helps to view it in a potential vorticity model. The phasing makes a little more sense than looking at individual vorticity maxima at H5. The NAM advects the potential vorticity on the tropopause eastward, resulting in a missed phases. It tries at 12z, but just misses the connection. The GFS on the other hand (06z) advects this PV anomaly in the northern stream south and east, which interacts with the southern stream PV anomaly by tugging it northward. The two stream phase completely later on, which is when we get the stall and loop S of the benchmark. I think the warmth aloft comes from the missed phase. The NAM is dynamically as intense as the GFS, so heights remain high to the north rather than tighten towards the center as the GFS depicts. The GFS does draw down that northern stream cold pool, while the NAM lingers it over the Lakes. Yeah thanks. I know what I'm looking at but wanted to make sure what I thought was happening was happening. The NAM came steadily towards the Euro, if you overlay the 0z/6z/12z NAM runs and then look at the 12z NAM vs the 0z Euro...we can see it's coming back to the fold. That will be the feature to watch with the rest of the models right now. RGEM/GGEM last night were also slow in diving that feature down which probably explains their less intense solutions. The 12z RGEM appears to have come more towards the NAM solution in a delayed phase. It's possible the NAM is scoring a coup here, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Do those plumes ever verify? I always see them referenced but do they work?They nailed the blizzard and Dec 29 th if that's any consolation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Upton is riding the EURO, and then undercutting it, totally tossing NECP, the RGEM, and the UKIE. Map of expected liquid. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 06z GFS was kinda interesting for BOS...yeah it has 2" of QPF as mostly snow...but it also has poor lift during second half of the storm. The omega shifts from deep layer lift through the SGZ to low-level stuff centered around 900mb while there is downward motion in the SGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Do you guys agree? Todd Gutner@ToddWBZ With a NE wind off H2O, surface will be too warm for first half of storm for much if any snow accum outside of hills...IMO... Lol. It's pretty obvious I do since I responded to him and agreed. My thoughts right now are lots of rain inside 495 turning into maybe a little slop. Outside 495 a few inches of crap. And then possibly a max of 10" in Worcester County. I'm just worried that the precip rates necessary for snow never really make it. Well worried about a lot actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah thanks. I know what I'm looking at but wanted to make sure what I thought was happening was happening. The NAM came steadily towards the Euro, if you overlay the 0z/6z/12z NAM runs and then look at the 12z NAM vs the 0z Euro...we can see it's coming back to the fold. That will be the feature to watch with the rest of the models right now. RGEM/GGEM last night were also slow in diving that feature down which probably explains their less intense solutions. The 12z RGEM appears to have come more towards the NAM solution in a delayed phase. It's possible the NAM is scoring a coup here, but we'll see. RGEM would be a pretty pedestrian solution, maybe low end warning at most in the hills...advisory snow elsewhere, perhaps a bit higher interior SE MA. Conservative wins if RGEM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah thanks. I know what I'm looking at but wanted to make sure what I thought was happening was happening. The NAM came steadily towards the Euro, if you overlay the 0z/6z/12z NAM runs and then look at the 12z NAM vs the 0z Euro...we can see it's coming back to the fold. That will be the feature to watch with the rest of the models right now. RGEM/GGEM last night were also slow in diving that feature down which probably explains their less intense solutions. The 12z RGEM appears to have come more towards the NAM solution in a delayed phase. It's possible the NAM is scoring a coup here, but we'll see. By 48 the RGEM is dumping the energy, FTMP into the trough. NAM is on its own. Still, we toss. Notice the difference between the 0z GGEM and the 12z RGEM to illustrate the point. The 12z RGEM came back towards a slightly more aggressive phase, we see the offshore low has it's closed contour up over us, versus just offshore. The RGEM is colder this run through the layers (at least the ones I can see) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 RGEM would be a pretty pedestrian solution, maybe low end warning at most in the hills...advisory snow elsewhere, perhaps a bit higher interior SE MA. Conservative wins if RGEM is correct. Check out the lakes, it's split somewhere between the NAM and Euro. More phasing than the NAM, but not as much as the Euro. Could be a harbinger here of later shifts. I do think the RGEM is wrapping up pretty good at 48 too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm playing it conservative right now. QPF will not be an issue in my mind. Euro/SREFs are just a plastering. Surface temps will be in the 30s so we'll need dynamics to keep us all snow. definitely gonna need some help with the temps. would be a meh end to the year if its mostly a cold rain or a non accum snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well the standards are set much higher in SNE. A six inch event would be a big loss. Hell... I'll take it in a second and be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Rpm gives me 12-16 Ginx 16-20 and ORH East to about 495 2-3 feet. Coast though gets very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS blunts the diving energy compared to its 6z run, but is also a little faster in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Check out the lakes, it's split somewhere between the NAM and Euro. More phasing than the NAM, but not as much as the Euro. Could be a harbinger here of later shifts. I do think the RGEM is wrapping up pretty good at 48 too though. Looks real good on the REG PCPN site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Rpm gives me 12-16 Ginx 16-20 and ORH East to about 495 2-3 feet. Coast though gets very littleDoes RPM ever work out? Like plumes do not trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS and NAM are worlds apart in how they handle that energy by even 30 hours. GFS digging down, NAM got stopped by customs at the border and is trying to find an entry point further east. The GFS is off of its earlier solutions though, there is definitely a more easterly component to that energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They can be weenieish. Some of the members gave you and I 50-70" for the blizz. I think inside 24hrs the mean isn't too bad. There's decent SREF spread still though, so I'd personally be hesitant in putting faith in them. Yeah, But the mean stayed pretty steady, There were a few weenie members well north of there on several runs but in the end like you said, It did ok, I just use it more as a reference and just another piece of guidance, I think you and i will be on the sidelines for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LOL the RPM gives Kevin 8" and Will over 2'. Suck gradient over BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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