weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Guidance continues to ramp up. This is a classic wet march snow. Most of your haven't lived through the ones in the 50s but this is quite similar. None of those were forecasted correctly including march of 1958 which I remember as about a foot of cement growing up in nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Apparently they had a super computer failure, euro will be delayed until Thursday. Storm is cancelled until then. 14 hours in the nam has that feathered appeal with multiple vortmax lowering heights up here. Tom Pettys famous song comes to mind at this moment. Running Down a Dream? It's hard to argue against the Euro most times. And the evolution of this one was strange, it was an 18z run of the GFS that came in big after a mostly meh 12z run. That seemed suspect, but then 00z came in big again, you wait one more cycle to start ramping up and there is 12z today. Now it's hard to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 matt noyes is interpreting models and giving a pretty bullish forecast from NE ct hills thru ORh hills .....shows a pretty sharp cut off from hills to 128 and then again to the coast. I wont say amounts but he's going pretty big. http://www.mattnoyes.net/forecast/2013/03/late-day-forecast-video-light-snow-tapers-quiet-tuesday-midweek-storm.html He said at least 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Running Down a Dream? It's hard to argue against the Euro most times. And the evolution of this one was strange, it was an 18z run of the GFS that came in big after a mostly meh 12z run. That seemed suspect, but then 00z came in big again, you wait one more cycle to start ramping up and there is 12z today. Now it's hard to ignore. Yeah started really with yesterday's 12z GFS ensembles that were almost all big hits even though the op run was meh. Odd evolution for sure but the trends were pretty clear today. Maybe Dr. No will drop the hammer on this or this is the once a year big Euro bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12 hours later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 image.jpg Not bad, suprised at zero for 8" here though, they have close to 2" QPF here all snow or close, thought there would be maybe 10% for 8" and 5" for 12. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0z nam has a stronger retrograding New England vort. And more northern stream energy diving down the northern plains, yet because of the weird way its handling the upper low in the ohio valley, it looks like its going to end up south of the 18z run. Maybe I will be wrong, but its drastically handling the ohio valley ULL differently this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the early hours depiction is misleading because now its making up for lost latitude. Wow this will be a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 nam is going to be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Probably should also toss out there that the 18z gfs lost the vortmax over ny state that it had for the prior several runs. I am expecting a correction SE on the 0z suite from ncep but I may well be wrong, just my thoughts. This is a thread about forecast discussion so that's mine. If the gfs stays with not having as much energy in NYS I think some of the mechanism for getting this as far NW is gone. At the same time the 18z rgem went the other way so it may be a not unprecedented off hour burp. It's hard to draw a true compromise between models but the ncep qpf map seems fair. Obviously large changes are about to occur one way or the other as I do not feel the compromise will be even, at this point one model camp will win with much higher weighting. Wasnt the 18z GFS a big hit, despite losing this NYS feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is something screwed up with the board suddenly? I don't see anyone's names listed in the thread. Did we enter a storm mode or something? NAM seems to look decent through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM looks very promising. Very potent SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wasnt the 18z GFS a big hit, despite losing this NYS feature? 0z NAM has the feature. Looks like new data is critical in this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is going to be another big hit, looks stronger at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is something screwed up with the board suddenly? I don't see anyone's names listed in the thread. Did we enter a storm mode or something? NAM seems to look decent through 36. Storm mode.... see top of page NAM has a wintry appeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LOL at the SREF snow probs weenie 30% prob for a foot in Shrewsbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM looks really close to 18z through 42 hours. Well probably be very similr with the usual noise differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LOL at the SREF snow probs weenie snow 30% prob for a foot in Shrewsbury. If the probs weren't for 12 hour snow and instead 24 hour snow, they would probaly be like 70%+ for a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I like the fact that this ramps up overnight Wednesday. 18z we'd 925/850 are plenty cold enough with some light snow but obviously not yet accumulating. I think alot are gng to be surprised at how well people do where snow is heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The gfs seems able to lose features for a run but not alter its general idea only to bring back the feature the next run. Happens on the off hour runs. It not being there...some were saying it was a reason to discount. It does do that sometimes and the nam certainly hasn't lost it this run. IMO its still the NAM. If NAM verifies then its like winning the Lotto. Uk will be significant in my mind. We are in both its time of year and in our particular "blocky" pattern associated with E,C,C, + knowing how to adjust it. Doing all this it is trending close to EC. Just my thoughts, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 what a nuke of an ull. 528 @ 42h over SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 IMO its still the NAM. If NAM verifies then its like winning the Lotto. Uk will be significant in my mind. We are in both its time of year and in our particular "blocky" pattern associated with E,C,C, + knowing how to adjust it. Doing all this it is trending close to EC. Just my thoughts, Nam is off the 18z at 5h by quite a bit. Phasing from the NW is delayed so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Very slightly slower vs 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks a little 'lattitude deficient' for CNE per my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Very slightly slower vs 18z? Yeah, precip dosen't get here until wednesday around sunset or so. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks a little 'lattitude deficient' for CNE per my eyes. Not too bad for you... at hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Warm. Ncep won't back down. Phase is slower, moisture further NW. Wet and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is warm. 0C H85 decently further west through 60hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks a little 'lattitude deficient' for CNE per my eyes. like Dave said, the next couple panels are weenied out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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