Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM a bit west? Nope, looks a tad E. Basing this off ULL low position and heights ahead of system thru 36h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The weird thing about the SREFs though.... if the 6z NAM was right (not saying it is) I probably wouldn't forecast more than 1"-3" or 2"-4" of snow anywhere in the state. The NAM was absolutely hideous.all i'm gonna say is that the gfs and its ensemble had better verify or damn close or else there is definitely something fundamentally wrong with that system. No excuse when almost every ensemble member supports the op and vice versa. If i get anything less than warning criteria snow here (and that is generous) i'm tossing it for good within the 60-72 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nope, looks a tad E. Basing this off ULL low position and heights ahead of system thru 36h. Yeah... with that last panel it def is close to or a bit east of the last run... colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM looks pretty disorganized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 all i'm gonna say is that the gfs and its ensemble had better verify or damn close or else there is definitely something fundamentally wrong with that system. No excuse when almost every ensemble member supports the op and vice versa. If i get anything less than warning criteria snow here (and that is generous) i'm tossing it for good within the 60-72 hour range. I hope i am wrong and you won't end up never using it again, But.................I would have more confidence if it at least some other support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 all i'm gonna say is that the gfs and its ensemble had better verify or damn close or else there is definitely something fundamentally wrong with that system. No excuse when almost every ensemble member supports the op and vice versa. If i get anything less than warning criteria snow here (and that is generous) i'm tossing it for good within the 60-72 hour range. A bald man felt something down there... Euro has been less wild in its motions and precip swings...but it is still coming into better agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I also think that QPF and storm location is the most important thing right now because I'm still worried about a se shift. That also dictates temps to a point so that should be on the front burner in terms of concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Even though I think we should toss the NAM, it looks like it's setting up the fire hose at hr 45 for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Nam is terrible, 0 run to run continuity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I hope Noone will base anything off nam no matter good or bad results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The euro shifted a few hundred miles so I'd would also argue it had a tough time with this. But, let's see how it does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM continues to be warm for SE MA. 850s above 0c by 12z Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The euro shifted a few hundred miles so I'd would also argue it had a tough time with this. But, let's see how it does now. Euro was partly to mostly cloudy like 3 runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Even though I think we should toss the NAM, it looks like it's setting up the fire hose at hr 45 for eastern areas. The Nam is terrible, 0 run to run continuity [Kevin]Toss, and toss it far away as possible.[/Kevin] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM continues to be warm for SE MA. 850s above 0c by 12z Thurs. Toasts all of CT/RI/E MA by 15z Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is hitting on the heaviest precip being E of ORH. Has 0c 850's to HFD-BVY at 18z Thursday. Of course 0.25" in 6 hrs in March during the day isn't that great for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM looks much colder down here than previous runs, probably close to an inch of liquid as snow verbatim. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM looks much colder down here than previous runs, probably close to an inch of liquid as snow verbatim. -skisheep Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NAM has such weird temp profiles...it is frigid here at 900mb...like -5 to -6C but then its barely below 0C at 850mb...looking at the 60 hour sounding....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM sucks. lol Lots of warmth for many who have moisture, lots of dry for many who have cold. Congrats, Joe??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I woder if this sets up as a nw ri special wrt firehose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0C 850 gets near Albany by hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I woder if this sets up as a nw ri special wrt firehose Burrilville, Cumberland, Sutton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0C 850 gets near Albany by hour 66 most of the storm's over by then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NAM has such weird temp profiles...it is frigid here at 900mb...like -5 to -6C but then its barely below 0C at 850mb...looking at the 60 hour sounding....lol.Thicknesses are fine, NAM raising thickness on NNE wind for cripes sake. Anyway .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NAM has such weird temp profiles...it is frigid here at 900mb...like -5 to -6C but then its barely below 0C at 850mb...looking at the 60 hour sounding....lol. Will is there any historical precedent for such a thing? 1000-850mb thicknesses are frigid even here, yet the 8h 0c is out by Logan11. Euro is cold, and a brutal, brutal snowstorm. It's curious to me that the NAM has been right 1 time out of about 300. The Euro been wrong maybe 2 times all winter at this range, and we're waiting on...presumably the NAM to come around? Just looking at the Euro it's a devastating snowstorm. I'm really puzzled by the group mind f8ck that is going on (not here, everywhere else) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 most of the storm's over by then... Its also still really cold below that layer...almost like it turns into a ZR or pellet-fest as its winding down...but alas, the NAM is always fun to look at beyond 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 First Storm I can remember in a while where my Favorite Cumberland is getting so much talk. Love it here. NAM is laughable again. Will the TV Mets Still use it? 850 gets back Again to like ALB lol. The temp layering is so strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I do like the comparisons to the Feb 10th 2010 storm...I mentioned that a few days ago...quite similar. The NAM did come NW from 06z.whatever that's worth. Perhaps the SE NCEP guidance trend has stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I woder if this sets up as a nw ri special wrt firehose wrt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.