HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Multiple hazards for many. Completelly meh for many as well. Typical NE weather. One consistency is that this has never been advertised a big hit W of ORH Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow Srefs. Crusher for BDL east Whole state of CT really, it's even a foot plus back here with 100% snow, I belive currently the only model to be all snow here...(GFS is close, but no cigar) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I am thinking we have a 12 hour window in CT to really pick up our snow.. 7pm wednesday to 7am Thursday.. Sun is down and precip rates up.. That is the one positive factor, heaviest rates are at the perfect time with sunset/sunrise.. just put out a snowfall forecast for 4-8" statewide 8"+ northeast hills and northwest hills closer to 4" valley locations closer to 8" elevated areas and 8"+ in any heavier banding.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'll take that and run. Accuweather map, very unlike them in that it's actually reasonable and not totally hyped... Aside from being too far west with the 6-12, and I'm not sure immediate NYC sees 3-6", other than that, good map. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Interesting, I just read your forecast and BOX is even less enthused for you than OKX is for me, strange you would single out my location? Good luck up there! Joe, you really need to work on your reading comprehension skills. I'm not sure how 6-12+" translated into "less enthused" Here's what BOX actually said in their disco: IN FACT 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET CONFINE HEAVY QPFSOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BDL-ORH-MHT...WHICH FITS THE UPPER AIRPATTERN. STAKES ARE ALWAYS HIGH WHENEVER SHARP QPF AXIS CROSSESTHE AREA.GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION AND STRENGTH OF BLOCK WILL LEAN TOWARDTHE MORE SUPPRESSED/COLDER UKMET/ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ECENS.THIS FOCUSES THE HEAVY SNOW /6-12 INCHES POSSIBLY HIGHER/ THREATOVER NE CT-RI AND EASTERN MA. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MAZ015&warncounty=MAC025&firewxzone=MAZ015&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook For those that are interested, here is their take for watches/warnings (expect probably around 4pm it seems like. DEFINITELY CONCERNED REGARDING THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH HEAVY SNOWPOTENTIAL IN THE POPULATED I-95 CORRIDOR OF RI AND EASTERN MA.HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DOWN TOWARD CAPE COD GIVEN MARGINAL BLYR TEMPSWITH ONSHORE FLOW. HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS POSE A RISK FORPOWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FORA 4TH-5TH PERIOD WATCH. THUS STILL SOME TIME TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACTTHREAT/RISK AREAS. AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION TRACK WELL SOUTH OF 40N! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Joe, you really need to work on your reading comprehension skills. I'm not sure how 6-12" translated into "less enthused" Here's what BOX actually said in their disco: IN FACT 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET CONFINE HEAVY QPF SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BDL-ORH-MHT...WHICH FITS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. STAKES ARE ALWAYS HIGH WHENEVER SHARP QPF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION AND STRENGTH OF BLOCK WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SUPPRESSED/COLDER UKMET/ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ECENS. THIS FOCUSES THE HEAVY SNOW /6-12 INCHES POSSIBLY HIGHER/ THREAT OVER NE CT-RI AND EASTERN MA. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MAZ015&warncounty=MAC025&firewxzone=MAZ015&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook Clearly his Spring fling is getting in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro isn't that high though75 at 850 in EMA with mixing is nothing to sneeze at, FYI MOS numbers are ridiculous, 30 inches at blue hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the SREFs cut back a lot here 3z to 9z. Not surprised. Thinking the NCEP models tick SE and Euro comes a tick NW at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 09z SREFs, QPF. Looks like a 3"+ speck over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Srefs are robust and cold. 2.5+ inside 128. 2+ BDL-ORH eastward. what about N. ORH Cnty? Where's the cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 One consistency is that this has never been advertised a big hit W of ORH Co. Well--NCEP 12z and 18z runs were. That sucked me in. SREF's are really meager for us. Oh, well. Such has been the winter of 12-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the SREFs cut back a lot here 3z to 9z. Not surprised. Thinking the NCEP models tick SE and Euro comes a tick NW at 12z. Goalposts moving closer together Potential Burrilville, RI Cumberland, RI Sutton, MA swath of 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 this is where we needed Bruce schwoegler to forecast 40" so others wouldn't fear forecasting. 6-12" So true. One sure thing, we get smoked with winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the SREFs cut back a lot here 3z to 9z. Not surprised. Thinking the NCEP models tick SE and Euro comes a tick NW at 12z.With 2+ at BDL east? That's impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'll take that and run. As will I I am thinking we have a 12 hour window in CT to really pick up our snow.. 7pm wednesday to 7am Thursday.. Sun is down and precip rates up.. That is the one positive factor, heaviest rates are at the perfect time with sunset/sunrise.. just put out a snowfall forecast for 4-8" statewide 8"+ northeast hills and northwest hills closer to 4" valley locations closer to 8" elevated areas and 8"+ in any heavier banding.. 4" here sounds good, you have that even down here? NAM is rolling, out to 21 now. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I am thinking we have a 12 hour window in CT to really pick up our snow.. 7pm wednesday to 7am Thursday.. Sun is down and precip rates up.. That is the one positive factor, heaviest rates are at the perfect time with sunset/sunrise.. just put out a snowfall forecast for 4-8" statewide 8"+ northeast hills and northwest hills closer to 4" valley locations closer to 8" elevated areas and 8"+ in any heavier banding.. Looks good to me...agree on the night time thing too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 what about N. ORH Cnty? Where's the cutoff? I bet you beat me by 3" again...upslope ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm going to be limited in posting because I'm away, but here is something I noticed on the euro. 925mb temps actually are near -4c from BOS to near BDL. They actually get advected in from the northeast. 850 temps near -8c also get advected in NW of BOS. That means Kevin and Will likely get a drier snow. It's also a red flag for the coast when you advect colder air from the northeast just aloft. Of course this is if the 00 euro is correct, but that certainly argues against liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 With 2+ at BDL east? That's impressive 2+ on the 395 corridor. Looks like ~1"-1.25" for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm going to be limited in posting because I'm away, but here is something I noticed on the euro. 925mb temps actually are near -4c from BOS to near BDL. They actually get advected in from the northeast. 850 temps near -8c also get advected in NW of BOS. That means Kevin and Will likely get a drier snow. It's also a red flag for the coast when you advect colder air from the northeast just aloft. Of course this is if the 00 euro is correct, but that certainly argues against liquid. Thanks for the thoughts Scott. Looks like the NAM is going to come in less amplified looking at 5h. Heights are lower ahead of ULL at 27h. Looks pretty close to 06z location though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Plumes again will be in the 20 s for average, wow cold run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Amazing how tight the qpf gradient is on the SREF mean. There's like an inch qpf difference between E ORH Co. to W ORH Co. lol Nice to see the .75" swath is pretty broad but that ain't gonna' cut it if it's over 20 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2+ on the 395 corridor. Looks like ~1"-1.25" for you Yea Ryan and they are colder. Fluffy snow for Kev, wetter for me 8-12 seems a good start IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yea Ryan and they are colder. Fluffy snow for Kev, wetter for me 8-12 seems a good start IMHO TBH I have no idea what we'll wind up doing this afternoon. This is a really tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsw Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Accuweather map, very unlike them in that it's actually reasonable and not totally hyped... Aside from being too far west with the 6-12, and I'm not sure immediate NYC sees 3-6", other than that, good map. -skisheep Don't usually repost maps, just text, but... I really hope Accuweather is right this time. Snowboarding Friday, and a fresh six inches would make my day even more that snowboarding normally makes my day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yea Ryan and they are colder. Fluffy snow for Kev, wetter for me 8-12 seems a good start IMHO The weird thing about the SREFs though.... if the 6z NAM was right (not saying it is) I probably wouldn't forecast more than 1"-3" or 2"-4" of snow anywhere in the state. The NAM was absolutely hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM a bit west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Goalposts moving closer together Potential Burrilville, RI Cumberland, RI Sutton, MA swath of 12"+ Goalposts moving closer together Potential Burrilville, RI Cumberland, RI Sutton, MA swath of 12"+ Hopefully .. You will do well too with your elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The weird thing about the SREFs though.... if the 6z NAM was right (not saying it is) I probably wouldn't forecast more than 1"-3" or 2"-4" of snow anywhere in the state. The NAM was absolutely hideous. Let's see what she does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsw Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2+ on the 395 corridor. Looks like ~1"-1.25" for you I'm sure most of you have this link, but this shows SE VT, where I am, well out of the high QPF zone. Days 1 to 3 QPF. I really don't know how to interpret all the models, so kind of keep it simple and let the experts here explain the Euro, etc. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif Tried to upload the photo. How do we do that here? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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