kevin1927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is that based on the rpm? Don't think so. Was in his blog update this morning: http://www1.whdh.com/weather/blog/posts/BO149800/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah that's a train I want no part of. But, to be honest, I'm forecasting today so I'll start looking more closely around 11. This is a really challenging forecast. Ill be very surprised if you go lower than 8-12 in NE part of state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol Geez Euro went from. 25 to 1.5 and it's Debbie. It really is bizarre in here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro ensembles have 1" of qpf through 96 hours from jjust W of ORH to just E of HFD to HVN...1.5" from BOS to PVD. 0.75" from ORE to BDL to BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol Geez Euro went from. 25 to 1.5 and it's Debbie. It really is bizarre in here today. I'm pretty bulish for the elevated interior. I understand the reason to be cautious on the CP and certainly in the CT River valley...but interior hills should get clocked as long as this doesn't go back SE. Its plenty cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They're keeping it close to the vest - saying heavy snow possible, power outages possible, r/s line hard to predict. I respect Upton's opinion, but it isn't supported by the models right now, but that's why they're paid what they are paid, it's not up to the models to decide our sensible wx. With Ryan feeling uneasy, I suspect maybe they're right but we'll see. If the 12z runs are similar to 00z last night the models suggest higher totals, admittedly though I haven't looked too closely for YBY. SREFs are tightly clustered at 8-14"for BDR FWIW. Might be good to see where they head going forward. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130305&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BDR&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.02524355185541&mLON=-73.78459609375&mTYP=roadmap Interesting, I just read your forecast and BOX is even less enthused for you than OKX is for me, strange you would single out my location? Good luck up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm pretty bulish for the elevated interior. I understand the reason to be cautious on the CP and certainly in the CT River valley...but interior hills should get clocked as long as this doesn't go back SE. Its plenty cold enough. Will 1-3 a good number for the south coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm pretty bulish for the elevated interior. I understand the reason to be cautious on the CP and certainly in the CT River valley...but interior hills should get clocked as long as this doesn't go back SE. Its plenty cold enough. What do you think we'll get in the Boston area? Euro was cold! And ensembles appear juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 saw that,I just lol but sometimes.... I took a quick look at the 03z SREFs when I woke up an saw that the 850 0c line never came back west so I knew the numbers would be pretty high. Crazy numbers out there on some of the guidance. Pretty much as expected though given the anomalous setup. I like seeing the Euro/SREFs sort of in the same camp right now. Hopefully we see some narrowing of guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm pretty bulish for the elevated interior. I understand the reason to be cautious on the CP and certainly in the CT River valley...but interior hills should get clocked as long as this doesn't go back SE. Its plenty cold enough. I thought this would be great for elevated areas, ORH hills should clean up on that east flow, little bit of upslope enhancement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Interesting, I just read your forecast and BOX is even less enthused for you than OKX is for me, strange you would single out my location? Good luck up there! I thought box laid it out with good discussion and pointed out whqt could happen good or bad and lets wait to nail it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is that based on the rpm? If they used the RPM they would have gone 2-3 feet here and even over a foot around 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm pretty bulish for the elevated interior. I understand the reason to be cautious on the CP and certainly in the CT River valley...but interior hills should get clocked as long as this doesn't go back SE. Its plenty cold enough.Nice. Thanks Will!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro ensembles have 1" of qpf through 96 hours from jjust W of ORH to just E of HFD to HVN...1.5" from BOS to PVD. 0.75" from ORE to BDL to BDR. That sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 whether its okay or not that's what is happening. The euro and gfs are big hits yet we have no accum map from noaa, no watches or advisories, and tv treats it like an April shower. At this point what will it take? If the gfs and euro are even 1/2 or this last run is that enough or are they all going to wait until Wednesday. I loathe the lack of consistency. All winter often with much less model agreement we has maps out 96 hours. This doesn't start until the 4th period, and it's a low confidence forecast at the moment (with respect to snow amounts), so I'm not surprised there are no watches or advisories yet. I'm sure you'll see them go up this afternoon. Perhaps as early as late this morning pending 12Z models. That's plenty of lead time. People will get the message in a hurry. It doesn't take long unless you're one of the few with no TV, internet, radio, or cell phone access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah Rpm crushed everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice. Thanks Will!! I'm not concerned about temps here at all...its all about qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not concerned about temps here at all...its all about qpf. Now was rpm for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol Geez Euro went from. 25 to 1.5 and it's Debbie. It really is bizarre in here today. I really don't get it either, I get that the setup is unconventional and thus low confidence but the models would all have to be busting really really bad here. I pulled some soundings around the area for the height of the storm in each respective area based on the 6z GFS BDR at hr 48 looks like paste to me BOS at 54 paste BDL at 54 powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What do you think we'll get in the Boston area? Euro was cold! And ensembles appear juicy. Get out the dart board for BOS...tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Now was rpm for BOS? 10" for you, 4" for the common and 1" for Logan? Lol, it had the line right over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Interesting, I just read your forecast and BOX is even less enthused for you than OKX is for me, strange you would single out my location? Good luck up there! It seems like both BOX and OKX have been very conservative, I guess they got burned on the last few where it shifted SE after 72 hours in, and so they decided to go conservative, except this one has decided to stick around. My guess is after 12z watches/warnings go up for atleast the interior BOX zones, advisories for some coastal areas for both BOX and OKX(maybe a 2-4" advisory for here, they like to do those even though 4" is advisory criteria). The mets in general have been very cautious with this, and to some extent I don't blame them, it's a really tricky forecast, but at the same time if some of these solutions that we have been seening verified it's going to have a big impact for many. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm pretty bulish for the elevated interior. I understand the reason to be cautious on the CP and certainly in the CT River valley...but interior hills should get clocked as long as this doesn't go back SE. Its plenty cold enough.that's what I am seeing. A NW RI special, the squeeze box will be going in and out and in and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Get out the dart board for BOS...tough forecast. I just tossed it and it landed on the number 12. Odd it would total 54 for the season then...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not concerned about temps here at all...its all about qpf.So most of our snow would fall with temps in mid- upper 20's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 How come no one is talking about how the 6z GFS was More SE and NAM was a Total and complete disaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 10" for you, 4" for the common and 1" for Logan? Lol, it had the line right over them. Realizing its probably out of its range, has there been a trend one way or another over the past few runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I really don't get it either, I get that the setup is unconventional and thus low confidence but the models would all have to be busting really really bad here. I pulled some soundings around the area for the height of the storm in each respective area based on the 6z GFS BDR at hr 48 looks like paste to me It is such a marginal setup for the CP that will make it a difficult forecast. Surface temps are marginal and DPs will not be overly low so it will come to how dynamic a system it is. I'd hedge low for areas inside 0f I-495 right now but at least point ot the pros/cons that can go either way right now. Low confidence forecast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So most of our snow would fall with temps in mid- upper 20's? If it came down hard I thunk it would be mostly 27F type snow here...even if its on and off moderate, its going to be below freezing I think for the most part in the hills...perhaps around freezing during the midday hours if has a hard time to saying steady.900-950mb is pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Realizing its probably out of its range, has there been a trend one way or another over the past few runs? Its trending a bit colder...most guidance did last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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