Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BOS: ~2.00" of qpf ORH: 1.00" HFD: 1.00" PVD: 2.00" LWM: 1.00" MPM: 0.75" Based on this I'm pretty shocked that we aren't hearing more about this. Tv treating it like a passing windy cold front. The hazard weather outlook says maybe power outages with heavy wet snow. If this does come to pass close to the gfs and euro depictions the lack of lead up and warning is going to be a pox on forecasters for a bit. It takes many cycles for the average people the hear. Everyone will wait until the euro today, if its still bad basically people may hear the warning tonight or they'll wake up Wednesday head to work and realize they're hosed. I guess there is no choice really, but yikes. 2" of cold qpf in Pvd and bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS still obscene w/ 3" QPF at BOS (it's cut back somewhat on the NW fringe though from the 00z GEFS), matches the SREF mean QPF well. Could someone run down how the Euro ens look and how they compare to the 12 ECENS and the recent SREF and GEFS please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Based on this I'm pretty shocked that we aren't hearing more about this. Tv treating it like a passing windy cold front. The hazard weather outlook says maybe power outages with heavy wet snow. If this does come to pass close to the gfs and euro depictions the lack of lead up and warning is going to be a pox on forecasters for a bit. It takes many cycles for the average people the hear. Everyone will wait until the euro today, if its still bad basically people may hear the warning tonight or they'll wake up Wednesday head to work and realize they're hosed. I guess there is no choice really, but yikes. 2" of cold qpf in Pvd and bos. yeah wtf is going on???? Bizarro world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What is your forecast, funny you were totally downplaying this and laughing at the gfs, you on board for something big now, think Upton is being too conservative? I do think upton is being too conservative, I don't see the foot plus totals, but I think 3-6" is a realistic forecast, based on a blend of the GFS EURO NAM SREF and UKIE(tossing GGEM, it's temps have a history of being messed up). -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I do think upton is being too conservative, I don't see the foot plus totals, but I think 3-6" is a realistic forecast, based on a blend of the GFS EURO NAM SREF and UKIE(tossing GGEM, it's temps have a history of being messed up). -skisheep Time to sit back and watch it all unfold I guess............good luck up north and east and in the hills, elevation is going to play a HUGE role in this event. Hope everyone gets buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't like the Euro evolution at all for big snow. I could see this becoming a 3-6" kinda deal in the hills around here? Nice model consensus now but overall the storm evolution looks sort of ugly. Not a fan of this one at least from the quick look I did at the overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Time to sit back and watch it all unfold I guess............good luck up north and east and in the hills, elevation is going to play a HUGE role in this event. Hope everyone gets buried. Yup, it's going to come down to nowcasting, that's for sure. Still wouldn't be suprised to see some changes in the models at 12z, but I think the general picture is much clearer than last night now. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yeah wtf is going on???? Bizarro world I think collectively the public facing weather folk are pulling for a last minute Charlie Brown. If the area gets even half of what the gfs and euro are showing their will be mobs with flaming sticks by Thursday morning in the papers and on the talk shows. IMO what's happened is we don't have Harvey or Barry or Bouchard to make that leap. Proves the point about how it is monkey see monkey do. this is where we needed Bruce schwoegler to forecast 40" so others wouldn't fear forecasting. 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT land map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LOL. Did you have access to the Euro ens qpf? If so were they close to op? I read some of the member had 2.5 inches of qpf to GON? I don't have access to the fancy shmancy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't like the Euro evolution at all for big snow. I could see this becoming a 3-6" kinda deal in the hills around here? Nice model consensus now but overall the storm evolution looks sort of ugly. Not a fan of this one at least from the quick look I did at the overnight runs. 1. 5 of cold qpf on the Euro, 3-6 NCT huh, oh well. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Time to sit back and watch it all unfold I guess............good luck up north and east and in the hills, elevation is going to play a HUGE role in this event. Hope everyone gets buried. It'll play a huge role only if the modeled temps or precip rates are way way off. The EC last night had a 2m max of 33F for the E MA coast for the duration of the storm. It was sub-freezing throughout the column above that. The only models that has basically barfed up recently are the 6z NAM and the GGEM, are those the models that you're riding for this storm? Over the GFS, EC, GEFS? I suspect this is your nervous low expectations thing that you often do when you feel like you're going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think on balance it's ok to wait for mid day runs before jumping up and down. While this may shut down air travel or slow it greatly, there are no real indication ps of widespread 12-18+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Time to lock up the Euro. What a run overnight for SE MA. Looks like a lot of that area was 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1. 5 of cold qpf on the Euro, 3-6 NCT huh, oh well. We will see. Yeah I'm not going to rely on the NORLUN or inverted trough snow on Friday that the Euro is printing out. Rates are pretty low and its spread out over a long time. It just doesn't add up to me to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It'll play a huge role only if the modeled temps or precip rates are way way off. The EC last night had a 2m max of 33F for the E MA coast for the duration of the storm. It was sub-freezing throughout the column above that. The only models that has basically barfed up recently are the 6z NAM and the GGEM, are those the models that you're riding for this storm? Over the GFS, EC, GEFS? I suspect this is your nervous low expectations thing that you often do when you feel like you're going to rain. No, I am listening to my NWS office, those guys are pretty good.............what is Box saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah I'm not going to rely on the NORLUN or inverted trough snow on Friday that the Euro is printing out. Rates are pretty low and its spread out over a long time. It just doesn't add up to me to be honest. good luck with your forecast. I am going 8-12 here could be more. EURO Ens are beefier, the ECMWF was last to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think on balance it's ok to wait for mid day runs before jumping up and down. While this may shut down air travel or slow it greatly, there are no real indication ps of widespread 12-18+.whether its okay or not that's what is happening. The euro and gfs are big hits yet we have no accum map from noaa, no watches or advisories, and tv treats it like an April shower. At this point what will it take? If the gfs and euro are even 1/2 or this last run is that enough or are they all going to wait until Wednesday.I loathe the lack of consistency. All winter often with much less model agreement we has maps out 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 good Not saying a bigger event isn't possible but at least right now I'm disappointed with the overnight trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No, I am listening to my NWS office, those guys are pretty good.............what is Box saying? They're keeping it close to the vest - saying heavy snow possible, power outages possible, r/s line hard to predict. I respect Upton's opinion, but it isn't supported by the models right now, but that's why they're paid what they are paid, it's not up to the models to decide our sensible wx. With Ryan feeling uneasy, I suspect maybe they're right but we'll see. If the 12z runs are similar to 00z last night the models suggest higher totals, admittedly though I haven't looked too closely for YBY. SREFs are tightly clustered at 8-14"for BDR FWIW. Might be good to see where they head going forward. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130305&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BDR&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.02524355185541&mLON=-73.78459609375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah I'm not going to rely on the NORLUN or inverted trough snow on Friday that the Euro is printing out. Rates are pretty low and its spread out over a long time. It just doesn't add up to me to be honest. I agree, am I missing something? I do not see big snow totals in Ct with a long duration event, looks like the main slug of moisture on the Euro is .6 here the rest being norlun snows? Not buying a ticket on that train. I think 3-6 hills 1-3 coast is a solid starting point pending todays runs. Hopefully the 6zgfs was not the start of a trend but it was ugly for ct, and the nam is being way too warm, it did just come off that temp profile victory, lots to ponder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah I'm not going to rely on the NORLUN or inverted trough snow on Friday that the Euro is printing out. Rates are pretty low and its spread out over a long time. It just doesn't add up to me to be honest. Oh it will add up nicely for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREF plumes for ORH. Kinda two camps...one mean is 10" and the mean for the other camp is like 28. Get a load at some of the plumes for your old stomping grounds. SFZ high 44.77" low 3.47" mean 21.84" DAMN!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not saying a bigger event isn't possible but at least right now I'm disappointed with the overnight trends. yeah I hit enter before I finished lol reread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Based on this I'm pretty shocked that we aren't hearing more about this. Tv treating it like a passing windy cold front. The hazard weather outlook says maybe power outages with heavy wet snow. If this does come to pass close to the gfs and euro depictions the lack of lead up and warning is going to be a pox on forecasters for a bit. It takes many cycles for the average people the hear. Everyone will wait until the euro today, if its still bad basically people may hear the warning tonight or they'll wake up Wednesday head to work and realize they're hosed. I guess there is no choice really, but yikes. 2" of cold qpf in Pvd and bos. Channel 7 met is going 2-4 for Worcester and several hours of non-accumulating snow in the western burbs of Bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I agree, am I missing something? I do not see big snow totals in Ct with a long duration event, looks like the main slug of moisture on the Euro is .6 here the rest being norlun snows? Not buying a ticket on that train. I think 3-6 hills 1-3 coast is a solid starting point pending todays runs. Hopefully the 6zgfs was not the start of a trend but it was ugly for ct, and the nam is being way too warm, it did just come off that temp profile victory, lots to ponder. Yeah that's a train I want no part of. But, to be honest, I'm forecasting today so I'll start looking more closely around 11. This is a really challenging forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Get a load at some of the plumes for your old stomping grounds. SFZ high 44.77" low 3.47" mean 21.84" DAMN!!!! I see. But everytime attlehole looks to beat me out just to spite me something happens either there or here allowing me to do better. Let's see if it happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Channel 7 met is going 2-4 for Worcester and several hours of non-accumulating snow in the western burbs of Bos. Is that based on the rpm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Get a load at some of the plumes for your old stomping grounds. SFZ high 44.77" low 3.47" mean 21.84" DAMN!!!! saw that,I just lol but sometimes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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