Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREF plumes for ORH. Kinda two camps...one mean is 10" and the mean for the other camp is like 28. You think the same basic forecast here as for ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was posting concerns for mby which people agreed on. I'd feel better if you were east, but I think you are good for 6-10 maybe 8-12 for now. Sometimes with these erly flow firehoses the moisture gets rung out by ORH. The QPF for mby has been 1.25 to 1.5 - is 8-10 here a good bet or is that too high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The QPF for mby has been 1.25 to 1.5 - is 8-10 here a good bet or is that too high? Probably a decent starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can someone talk Joe off the ledge..He's sounding like DT. I read Joe's posts all night about how he's happy with 1 foot and high winds and something happened in 2 hours to make him change his mind lol It's Spring remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can someone talk Joe off the ledge..He's sounding like DT. I read Joe's posts all night about how he's happy with 1 foot and high winds and something happened in 2 hours to make him change his mind lol I said here multiple times last night I was not biting until the King came on board. The GFS caved here, okx is all over this...............1-3 of snow and minor flooding absolutely no big deal- good luck out there hope you get crushed, I will be cheering from the side lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Two CT mets just said about the same thing. It is March and the N/E hills get some slop. No big deal, save for some wind and minor to moderate coastal flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 First call. 4-6" of water laden snow. Boston 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Fox 25 Boston says winds will gust to 60 mph but its a winddriven rain for Bostpn. Whats wrong with these people. Oh corrected, a slushy couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow, E MA is getting firehosed still at 78 hours...another half inch of qpf in that 6 hours. Thanks for the updates guys. I passed out on my couch watching tv. Haven't done that in ages slept like a baby until the kids just woke me up, lol. So sounds like the euro and gfs are still on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You think the same basic forecast here as for ORH? I have you down for 5-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFs have the same two camps but don't they always it seems this far out. Kevin I'd probably include you in a slightly toned down version of ORH, but you'll be fine I think. Like I said..just keep an eye on that moisture feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have you down for 5-10" Which in Kevin's mind is 10-20. Sounds good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Oh our beach faces east, yeah some minor flooding, but the snow threat is gone here, and for most of the state, the big snow threat..........6z nam and gfs were tame to say the least. Euro is warm here, and long duration. I like c-2 here minor coastal flooding, a far far far cry from yesterday and glad I stayed conservative and waited to see if the gfs would buckle and the Euro would meet it half way. Once again the gfs fails, because its forecast so greatly effect SENSIBLE weather.........thats what makes the Euro so great, when it fails it usually does not effect sensible weather, it usually fails being a bit conservative, not like the gfs giving me 2 ft of snow and winds gusting to 60 mph. Awful, awful model. did the storm already happen? LOL..the key will be the position of the low-if we have E or ESE winds, would agree, we're done, but if they can swing NE or N, then we'd be good for some snow...I'm guessing it ends up being a nowcasting situation for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have you down for 5-10" I'd cut that about in half for out here. I'm thinking 3-5. Could be worse. In fact, if I get that, it'll be more than I anticipated two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Plumes for BOS pretty robust all things considered. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130305&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BOS&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=42.3145390244822&mLON=-70.72621098301552&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 did the storm already happen? LOL What is your forecast, funny you were totally downplaying this and laughing at the gfs, you on board for something big now, think Upton is being too conservative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think if I were forecasting BOS I'd say possible plowable snow, details tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have you down for 5-10"Not bad but lets go 8-12 lolly 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not bad but lets go 8-12 lolly 14 Alright, sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone have wind information from the Euro, direction and peak gusts duration for coastal Ct? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think if I were forecasting BOS I'd say possible plowable snow, details tonight. 06z was colder too. It just depends on rates but it was good to see the euro come in more robust. It sounds like the media is going with more liquid which I wouldn't be so sure of if this happens verbatim like the euro and gfs, but there is plenty to figure out an it could go one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Oh our beach faces east, yeah some minor flooding, but the snow threat is gone here, and for most of the state, the big snow threat..........6z nam and gfs were tame to say the least. Euro is warm here, and long duration. I like c-2 here minor coastal flooding, a far far far cry from yesterday and glad I stayed conservative and waited to see if the gfs would buckle and the Euro would meet it half way. Once again the gfs fails, because its forecast so greatly effect SENSIBLE weather.........thats what makes the Euro so great, when it fails it usually does not effect sensible weather, it usually fails being a bit conservative, not like the gfs giving me 2 ft of snow and winds gusting to 60 mph. Awful, awful model. It's the weather person/weenies job to use the guidance correctly. The gfs did exactly what it has done the entire winter. I mean exactly. There is always the sliver of doubt but the first crack in the foundation occurred at 18z yesterday (handled New England s/w differently) as it began its normal process of correcting se. It's entirely predictable at this stage in this particular winter. As predictable as the euro being 500 miles south at day 4. What is a little different this time is the other guidance came further north which leaving the gfs less room to move se. That leaves us in a bit of a pickle today. Have we defined the goalposts or is the field itself still going to shift ese as all the guidance corrects for either weak data in earlier runs or a stronger/weaker block? We will see. I guess the only thing more predictable than the gfs this winter is people comaining about the gfs. Nam, now that's another story. Ggem was close to shifting out to fishes jmo. Rgem looked good, gfs fine, euro fine. Temps still the major issue and nobody wants to make that forecast yet on tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Alright, sounds good. LOL. Did you have access to the Euro ens qpf? If so were they close to op? I read some of the member had 2.5 inches of qpf to GON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What is your forecast, funny you were totally downplaying this and laughing at the gfs, you on board for something big now, think Upton is being too conservative? I'd say 3-5 for us...key is how much precip left over when winds shift...think you are underdoing the winds too-there's a decent high to our north and a strong low here...the gradient should be good for 40-60 mph winds/gusts for a good 2 days...that's going to cause more than minor flooding....I don't have a problem with where upton is, they can always adjust after the 12z and even 0z models...event doesnt really get going for another 24-36 hrs... - you are tossing in the towel too early on this one IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is DT getting rain? What a mushroom tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 06z was colder too. It just depends on rates but it was good to see the euro come in more robust. It sounds like the media is going with more liquid which I wouldn't be so sure of if this happens verbatim like the euro and gfs, but there is plenty to figure out an it could go one way or the other. Wet snow or 28 and powder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LOL. Did you have access to the Euro ens qpf? If so were they close to op? I read some of the member had 2.5 inches of qpf to GON? Pickles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'd say 3-5 for us...key is how much precip left over when winds shift...think you are underdoing the winds too-there's a decent high to our north and a strong low here...the gradient should be good for 40-60 mph winds/gusts for a good 2 days...that's going to cause more than minor flooding....I don't have a problem with where upton is, they can always adjust after the 12z and even 0z models...event doesnt really get going for another 24-36 hrs... Just said what Upton is going with..........read the HWO 1-3 minor flooding and winds 40-50. Remember astro tides are low, so that helps immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wet snow or 28 and powder? It wouldn't really be wet. Your temps would be cold enough...maybe it's somewhat sticky but I don't see power outage stuff. I think 6-10 8-12 is a decent starting point for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 EURO 1.5 qpf cold check, plumes average 20 check. 8-12 is a good starting point it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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