TheSnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's more likely to be colder for most locations if this comes further NW than the Euro. The problem is lack of dynamics, not 850s. Right, the storm itself needs to create is own power plant of cold air. I'm just happy it still needs to trend more to be perfect since we're 48 hours out and there's other models NW of it already. Wonder if Mark Searles (NBC 10 RI) went to bed before the GFS. Hope he still likes his Complete Rain map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah the ggem is a bit more progressive and the firehose stays over extreme southeast mass. A lot depends on how much the ULL swings north as it goes negative...sort of a half-fujiwara with the lakes shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A lot depends on how much the ULL swings north as it goes negative...sort of of half-fujiwara with the lakes shortwave. It's going to be nice to have some elevation...I think you are pretty much golden for 8-12 in ORH...maybe a bit more due to upslope. East of you on the coastal plain is going to be a forecast nightmare I think for another day or so...I pretty much agree with scooter's and others earlier concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 From BOX Facebook:"Ocean storm Wed-Fri showings signs of tracking farther ofshr. Hwr this is a colder scenario possibly supporting snowfall into RI & Ern MA." Gotta love how they spin the EURO barely jumping aboard as the one possible snow scenario for SE SNE, they have been that afraid to jump at anything else that nothing the GFS said had them even mentioning the possibility to the "public". Gotta be more willing to sick your neck out there than that, either way, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A lot depends on how much the ULL swings north as it goes negative...sort of a half-fujiwara with the lakes shortwave. i'd imagine there will be a sharp cut off somewhere as far S as the cape or as far north as Se Nh from that firehose i remember that firehose on late feb 2010 that abs crushed RI for a while . the one where temps were like 37/36 in N ri and then 2 hrs later the firehose dynamically cool'd enuf so some body .........could streak thru diamond hill, ri on their b day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 From BOX Facebook: "Ocean storm Wed-Fri showings signs of tracking farther ofshr. Hwr this is a colder scenario possibly supporting snowfall into RI & Ern MA." Gotta love how they spin the EURO barely jumping aboard as the one possible snow scenario for SE SNE, they have been that afraid to jump at anything else that nothing the GFS said had them even mentioning the possibility to the "public". Gotta be more willing to sick your neck out there than that, either way, IMO. seems like a disconnect between them and HPC. HPC had 20% prob of 18 or more inches just west of boston (and i mean just a hair west) that's not a big longshot 72 hrs out (when maps were done) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's going to be nice to have some elevation...I think you are pretty much golden for 8-12 in ORH...maybe a bit more due to upslope. East of you on the coastal plain is going to be a forecast nightmare I think for another day or so...I pretty much agree with scooter's and others earlier concerns. Yeah for here, its just figuring out if we slow-burn our way to 6" or if we get firehosed out of the east to 18"...the CP is definitely a nightmare forecast right now. For BOS I could see them paste-bombing their way to 12" or pulling a March 1958 and getting 4" out of 1.90" of qpf (because the rates never get great). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 6z NAM colder but way south of 00z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 6z NAM colder but way south of 00z... details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 details? On average it's cut qpf by 40-50% across the board. still has just over 2" across plymouth county MA but adds up very slowly over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On average it's cut qpf by 40-50% across the board. still has just over 2" across plymouth county MA but adds up very slowly over time. How about BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On average it's cut qpf by 40-50% across the board. still has just over 2" across plymouth county MA but adds up very slowly over time. Colder compared to the 00z torch run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 How about BOS? Went from 2.6" to 1.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Went from 2.6" to 1.6". I'll take a snowy 1.6" over a rainy 2.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1.6" of snow for 1.6" qpf? darling 1:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1.6" of snow for 1.6" qpf? Based on what I see in the UVV fields and CCB diagnostics, 3 hourly precip, and column temps I'd probably go 3-7" of snow for the majority of the city of boston despite higher qpf numbers. Plus, verbatim on the nam it's not all snow the whole time there. There will be a nice wintry appeal, but as far as adding up it will be real tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 additional 15-25% cut in NAM qpf likely coming later today? Based on what I see in the UVV fields and CCB diagnostics, 3 hourly precip, and column temps I'd probably go 3-7" of snow for downtown boston despite higher qpf numbers. Plus, verbatim on the nam it's not all snow the whole time there. There will be a nice wintry appeal, but as far as adding up it will be real tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Shore Slop Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think pretty much all the local TV mets nailed this one. A few inches of slop for Boston and southcoast and some moderate coastal flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think pretty much all the local TV mets nailed this one. A few inches of slop for Boston and southcoast and some moderate coastal flooding you can live up to your name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 additional 15-25% cut in NAM qpf likely coming later today?i wouldn't be surprised if it bounced around wildly for a few more runs in classic nam fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I like the MPM shoutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NO TWO EVENTS ARE IDENTICAL BUT THIS LOOKS A LOT LIKE 10 FEB 2010 SNOW BUST. DESPITE THIS OCEAN STORM EVOLVING INTO A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/FIRE HOSE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL SOUTH NEW ENGLAND...ABOUT 36N LATITUDE! THUS HEAVIEST PERSISTENT BANDED QPF SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET CONFINE HEAVY QPF SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BDL-ORH-MHT...WHICH FITS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. STAKES ARE ALWAYS HIGH WHENEVER SHARP QPF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Reading on Twitter that GFS is coming in like EURO... can anyone elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow..big set of overnight runs..12+ for quite a few of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BDL flights cancel uncancel. Long duration, moderate total accumulation. Very manageable. Congrats, worcester again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Outside looking in again up here unless the GFS/GEFS are correct. They bring in some good hang back snows as that last piece of energy dives southeast toward the system from out of the GL and give the ULL a little bump north. The Euro has this too, but moreso for upstate NY and interior SNE. 6z GEFS shifted a bit NE from 0z. The GFS has lead the way so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Interesting mention of that Feb 2010 boo boo Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Boy--unless you live in Eastern/SE Mass/RI, BOX suggests you really don't have anything to worry about. Interesting they don't have a HWO posted. Surprised by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's going to be nice to have some elevation...I think you are pretty much golden for 8-12 in ORH...maybe a bit more due to upslope. East of you on the coastal plain is going to be a forecast nightmare I think for another day or so...I pretty much agree with scooter's and others earlier concerns. We just called to say we love you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 WCVB Boston showed the NAM as their snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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