ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Its still not like the GFS...but its a lot better...the precip rates are not great except right along the E MA coast for a couple 6 hour intervals...but its very cold...the interior would accumulate well no matter what...esp the hills...it drops ORH below freezing Wednesday evening and doesn't make it back above freezing until Saturday...maybe barely Fri afternoon. Valleys might have a bit of trouble during Thu afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 QPF for Bos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We cave, we celebrate, we rejoice. E MA in the bullseye on Euro, GFS, SREF now. Just need to hope and pray it holds for another 48 hours. I'm amazed there isn't even at least a hazardous weather outlook for the region. If it's cold enough, this is tree limb ripping paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 With all this relatively late 'trending', I have a feeling it might not be til tomorrow's 0z run where things sort out... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BOS: ~2.00" of qpf ORH: 1.00" HFD: 1.00" PVD: 2.00" LWM: 1.00" MPM: 0.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 all snow for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We cave, we celebrate, we rejoice. E MA in the bullseye on Euro, GFS, SREF now. Just need to hope and pray it holds for another 48 hours. I'm amazed there isn't even at least a hazardous weather outlook for the region. If it's cold enough, this is tree limb ripping paste. we really can't celebrate yet. were riding the line with dynamics on the best model. But it def put us in the game for a big snow, legitimately and not a figmant of the gfs non relaxing consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 all snow for BOS? Yeah pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BOS: ~2.00" of qpf ORH: 1.00" HFD: 1.00" PVD: 2.00" LWM: 1.00" MPM: 0.75" Wow.. seriously? That leaves no major model with < 1" qpf for most of SNE.... Let the watches fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 we really can't celebrate yet. were riding the line with dynamics on the best model. But it def put us in the game for a big snow, legitimately and not a figmant of the gfs non relaxing consistency. Yea, 48 hours is a long time to sort out the details that we need to maintain a hit, there's not a lot of room for error. Having said that though, the SREFs and GFS have been really steadfast at nailing E MA and the Euro making a big move in that direction is certainly very encouraging imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Its still not like the GFS...but its a lot better...the precip rates are not great except right along the E MA coast for a couple 6 hour intervals...but its very cold...the interior would accumulate well no matter what...esp the hills...it drops ORH below freezing Wednesday evening and doesn't make it back above freezing until Saturday...maybe barely Fri afternoon. Valleys might have a bit of trouble during Thu afternoon. Long duration for sure...I would be a little worried on the coastal plain despite bump in qpf...due to rates so-so... you are probably good for 8-12 in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BOS: ~2.00" of qpf ORH: 1.00" HFD: 1.00" PVD: 2.00" LWM: 1.00" MPM: 0.75" 1" ORH to .75" out to E slope of Berks is a signifigant hit. If you now blended that with GFS/NAM we're talking borderline MECS in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It would be a lot safer if this was about 50 miles NW...I think the dynamics would be better. But still as is, the Euro is cold on its thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It would be a lot safer if this was about 50 miles NW...I think the dynamics would be better. But still as is, the Euro is cold on its thermal profiles. Thats scheduled for tomorrow's 12z I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Long duration...so Im guessing 1" QPF= 6" of snow type of deal? Still, watches for the 4am package likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So are any of the models showing rain for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Long duration for sure...I would be a little worried on the coastal plain despite bump in qpf...due to rates so-so... you are probably good for 8-12 in ORH. Yeah as long as we get the QPF, I think ORH hills will clean up on deep layer easterly flow...should be plenty cold once several hundred feet up. Right on the coast is definitely more problematic relying on rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So we got 50 miles of wiggle room on the EURO to trend before worrying about a R/S line? Mmmmmm still 3 more EURO models runs to go..... still feel like this run was too good. Would have rather had it more south, though the GFS began backtracking SE so.. I just Hate getting models perfect too soon when there are So many variables which there are here being March with an Easterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah as long as we get the QPF, I think ORH hills will clean up on deep layer easterly flow...should be plenty cold once several hundred feet up. Right on the coast is definitely more problematic relying on rates. How about 700 foot hills in Tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Long duration for sure...I would be a little worried on the coastal plain despite bump in qpf...due to rates so-so... you are probably good for 8-12 in ORH. BOS is? 4-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So we got 50 miles of wiggle room on the EURO to trend before worrying about a R/S line? Mmmmmm still 3 more EURO models runs to go..... still feel like this run was too good. Would have rather had it more south, though the GFS began backtracking SE so.. I just Hate getting models perfect too soon when there are So many variables which there are here being March with an Easterly flow. I think you want the Euro to keep coming NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BOS is? 4-6"? I would think more than that with 2" qpf mostly snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I would think more than that with 2" qpf mostly snow... Yeah verbatim on the EC its going to be more...but in practicality, its going to come down if you can get those strong precip rates...the Euro hugged the coastline with a couple impressive 6 hour totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM qpf if anyone is interested... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM qpf if anyone is interested... That's worse than the Euro. GGEM might be the driest model of the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So are any of the models showing rain for BOS NAM was almost all rain, and there's a handful of the SREFs that mix in rain and some that are nearly all rain for BOS, but I think the globals are more reliable for thermal profiles in this one, and both the GFS/Euro are more snow than rain. Here's the ptype %s for BOS and OWD (norwood) shows that probs change pretty significantly as you get away from the coast ORH shows like 90%+ of snow so it shows you the difference between the CP and the interior.] Bos: OWD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's worse than the Euro. GGEM might be the driest model of the 00z suite. How warm is the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So we got 50 miles of wiggle room on the EURO to trend before worrying about a R/S line? Mmmmmm still 3 more EURO models runs to go..... still feel like this run was too good. Would have rather had it more south, though the GFS began backtracking SE so.. I just Hate getting models perfect too soon when there are So many variables which there are here being March with an Easterly flow. It's more likely to be colder for most locations if this comes further NW than the Euro. The problem is lack of dynamics, not 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's worse than the Euro. GGEM might be the driest model of the 00z suite. Yeah the ggem is a bit more progressive and the firehose stays over extreme southeast mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think you want the Euro to keep coming NW. i think i want to violently shake him we NEED the euro to crush us ...and we need it to crush us starting now. we will gladly take a few nw tickles and by we i mean me and him obv you as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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