Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 New thread. We have set up a specific storm banter thread to keep the banter down in these threads. We're going to start cracking down more as this event unfolds. Please stay on topic. Banter thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39594-march-6-8-storm-banter/ Prior discussion thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39579-march-6-8th-ocean-storm-discussion-part-ii/ SREFs will be rolling out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is there anything we can watch for on mesoanalysis to see which way this is going to sway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Before the 00z guidance starts coming in...here's where we stood at 18z: 12z GGEM: Scraper...fairly low impact for snow 12z Ukie: Moderate hit, moderate impact, perhaps higher interior elevated 12z Euro/ENS: Scraper...fairly low impact for snow (ensembles a tad more bullish) 18z RGEM: At least moderate and probable high impact snow (only goes to 48 hours) 15z SREFs: High impact snow...potentially historic for some 18z NAM: High impact snow...potentially historic for some 18z GFS/GEFS: High impact snow...potentially historic for some Clearly the foreign guidance is far less threatening than the NCEP guidance, however, the Ukie and 18z RGEM did make big jumps toward the NCEP guidance...GGEM and Euro made jumps toward it as well, but are still quite far apart. Almost all of these solutuons had at least moderate impact in terms of coastal flooding/beach erosion due to long duration fetch...the more amped up solutions were a bit worse, but even the scrapers will cause some issues on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Homeland Security EMS in CT must be sending out preliminary alerts, I just got a meeting planner for Thursday AM for storm prep. I wanted to text back, too late but did not have the balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Quote Yep, safe play. I don't think you guys saw the Boston stations. Jerry and I don't ever say much about the news here. They weren't far off from about as much drama as a passing flurry. Just doesn't do the potential justice is all. I sympathize somewhat, because we (NWS) can discuss uncertainty and it is understood and accepted. The TV guys can't get away with it as much. However, they could easily set some vague goal posts and continue to narrow the forecast down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HPC puts Boston 20-30percent chance of 12''+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Probably should also toss out there that the 18z gfs lost the vortmax over ny state that it had for the prior several runs. I am expecting a correction SE on the 0z suite from ncep but I may well be wrong, just my thoughts. This is a thread about forecast discussion so that's mine. If the gfs stays with not having as much energy in NYS I think some of the mechanism for getting this as far NW is gone. At the same time the 18z rgem went the other way so it may be a not unprecedented off hour burp. It's hard to draw a true compromise between models but the ncep qpf map seems fair. Obviously large changes are about to occur one way or the other as I do not feel the compromise will be even, at this point one model camp will win with much higher weighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:21 AM, capecod04 said: HPC puts Boston 20-30percent chance of 12''+ Mentioned it in the other thread, but that makes sense given their favoring of an equal blend of the Ukie, Euro, GEM, and GFS. One out of those four is a big hit, so 20-30% seems on the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:22 AM, OceanStWx said: Mentioned it in the other thread, but that makes sense given their favoring of an equal blend of the Ukie, Euro, GEM, and GFS. One out of those four is a big hit, so 20-30% seems on the nose. that seems pretty bullish IMO considering the storm is still going on after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:22 AM, Rollo Tomasi said: Probably should also toss out there that the 18z gfs lost the vortmax over ny state that it had for the prior several runs. I am expecting a correction SE on the 0z suite from ncep but I may well be wrong, just my thoughts. I don't think your idea of an over-correction NW followed by gradual adjustment back SE it totally off base. You would hope we start seeing a narrowing towards a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFs look good for SNE still...cutbacks in ME and improvement in WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFs look like they are narrowing a bit for QPF...they actually brought the heavier QPF in ME south a bit but they are even juicier in E MA/RI/CT. Maybe starting to narrow the goal posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is the Ggem really a scraper? I mean I have 1.05 of QPF with 2 inch on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREF's has a 2" bulleye now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:26 AM, OceanStWx said: I don't think your idea of an over-correction NW followed by gradual adjustment back SE it totally off base. You would hope we start seeing a narrowing towards a consensus. It has played out very well to the 2013 playbook. We have had systems where the ggem and ukie came somewhat onboard at this range only to back off slightly as ncep collapsed se. I don't recall any with this much ensemble agreement, with the nogaps on board and presumably the rgem. If the 18z gfs lost that feature and picks it back up this run its a monster. I just wonder if that was the first crack in the foundation... FIFO...first in first out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:28 AM, Ginxy said: Is the Ggem really a scraper? I mean I have 1.05 of QPF with 2 inch on the Cape Its really drawn out...I suppose you could put it more under the moderate category. The Euro had near 1" in spots in SE MA too, but it was drawn out over like 40 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:29 AM, CT Blizz said: Sref's are a major, major snowstorm for all of SNE..Even looks decent for MPM He's sketching out SREF QPF plumes on a sticky note to make sure his QPF fetish is satisfied before bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:28 AM, ORH_wxman said: SREFs look like they are narrowing a bit for QPF...they actually brought the heavier QPF in ME south a bit but they are even juicier in E MA/RI/CT. Maybe starting to narrow the goal posts? I Felt like the 18z gfs was doing the same. Perhaps that'll be the compromise, a weaker NYS s/w curtails a huge NW shift but still crushes between the narrowing goal posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 matt noyes is interpreting models and giving a pretty bullish forecast from NE ct hills thru ORh hills .....shows a pretty sharp cut off from hills to 128 and then again to the coast. I wont say amounts but he's going pretty big. http://www.mattnoyes.net/forecast/2013/03/late-day-forecast-video-light-snow-tapers-quiet-tuesday-midweek-storm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:39 AM, CoastalWx said: Lots of weenie posts in here. Storm is really worthy of no discussion until the Euro comes in lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Its not going to be rain on the 128 belt...not a chance during the heavy stuff. It might end as RA/SN mix or -RA More rain or mix would be a worry if the precip stayed light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:42 AM, ORH_wxman said: Its not going to be rain on the 128 belt...not a chance during the heavy stuff. It might end as RA/SN mix or -RA More rain or mix would be a worry if the precip stayed light. If it's rain back through 128 or west then it means we're getting rates of .02"/hour kinda stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:42 AM, CT Rain said: Storm is really worthy of no discussion until the Euro comes in lol.You are carrying that mantra maybe too far but I concur. FYI Will of the GGEM so 1.05. 85 comes in 18 hrs, not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:45 AM, Ginxy said: You are carrying that mantra maybe too far but I concur. FYI Will of the GGEM so 1.05. 85 comes in 18 hrs, not too bad It was sort of a joke but to be honest nothing is really going to sway me tonight until I see the Euro... unless the GFS takes a huge step in one direction (south or north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:47 AM, CT Rain said: It was sort of a joke but to be honest nothing is really going to sway me tonight until I see the Euro... unless the GFS takes a huge step in one direction (south or north).Oh I know what you meant. But if the GEFS even bust in half its still WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Any word on temps on SREF? Cooler or warmer or same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the GEM and Ukie come more into line with the gfs and don't look too suspicious, then I'd be more apt to dismiss the EC (unless it also markedly came north). lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:47 AM, CT Rain said: It was sort of a joke but to be honest nothing is really going to sway me tonight until I see the Euro... unless the GFS takes a huge step in one direction (south or north). Apparently they had a super computer failure, euro will be delayed until Thursday. Storm is cancelled until then. 14 hours in the nam has that feathered appeal with multiple vortmax lowering heights up here. Tom Pettys famous song comes to mind at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:51 AM, capecod04 said: Any word on temps on SREF? Cooler or warmer or same?we are screwed, had to pin didn't you Bobby. SREFS plumes will answer that question when they come out. Mean seems to set up a CF just northwest of Tan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 1:51 AM, BIrving said: If the GEM and Ukie come more into line with the gfs and don't look too suspicious, then I'd be more apt to dismiss the EC (unless it also markedly came north). lol i know when gfs and euro run but what time do the ukie /gem/ rgem run ...if you don't mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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