rgwp96 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 popular book in dc tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 popular book in dc tonight -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 mid atlantic special. Story of my youth in Baltimore back in 1980s.. Too many of those storms for my taste I can't believe the bust down there. What a disaster. I wouldhave busted horribly if I had to forecast that down there....maybe I'll get my chance to bust up here instead. The way that went down was literally the type of nightmare a snow weenie wakes up to with cold sweat. There is nothing worse than having the storm look fantastic on radar and everything going as planned and then it just craps out and flips to rain...and not even because temps aloft weren't cold enough. Then to watch RIC way to the south get crushed....just a sickening storm there today. Its going to make a great post-mortem case study though...I would be really interested in digging to see where it went wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Oh man, I made a post 2 days ago wondering what would happen if this storm somehow failed for our MA friends and found a way to crush us. Never thought that might actually come true. Still a decent shot at a big fail up here but if the Euro is right, that joking post a couple days ago will be inadvertently prescient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 To be fair, many areas down there did get whacked with a sizable snowstorm, and pretty close to verified totals in certain spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 To be fair, many areas down there did get whacked with a sizable snowstorm, and pretty close to verified totals in certain spots. Same thing is likely to happen here IMO. Spring type storm. -- Here's the 18z GFS and NAM, 6 hour QPF vs roughly the 6 hour QPF. Whoops..and this is why I don't worry about the GFS and toss it totally. All of the other models were pretty close. NAM was nearly the best but sadly it's only accurate for about 6 hours each run so we're still 3 runs away from it being useful. NAM was a smidge too heavy in NJ (NW side) which it has been all day. That's fine, the Euro was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 RAP wants to move it further to sea earlier, but that's just kind of keeping up with the other models HRRR starts the party early, this is posted for Joe. I don't care for the HRRR. This would be a defeat on par with the British losing the revolutionary war for Channel 7 if it were to verify so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Given the wide range of solutions (and continuing evolution of solutions) by each of the models over the past few days, I'm willing to bet that at one point or another each model will have provided a solution that verifies, once compared to the final outcome of this storm. It may not have verified for the right reasons, but sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Interesting that Matt Noyes' map has 2" from BOS to PVD south and east. 4" inside 495. Seems to be going straight NAM and mostly rain for EMass. hmmmm....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Given the wide range of solutions (and continuing evolution of solutions) by each of the models over the past few days, I'm willing to bet that at one point or another each model will have provided a solution that verifies, once compared to the final outcome of this storm. It may not have verified for the right reasons, but sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. Overall, in a general sense, yep. Guidance will be guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 OT from outside the forum- when did the Rollo Tomasi and Eduggs model discussion thing start. I'm not sure I even remember Rollo Tomasi from a year or two ago ( I lurk only for big ticket events) and especially Rollo Tomasi, some of the best non-red tag model diagnostic discussions I have ever seen, and Eduggs holds his own. Sort of like Donald Sutherland in long range threads or wxmx (Jorge) in tropical threads or a couple of other names I am forgetting from the ENSO and long range and tropical threads. Best non-tag weather discussions in a subforum, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 OT from outside the forum- when did the Rollo Tomasi and Eduggs model discussion thing start. I'm not sure I even remember Rollo Tomasi from a year or two ago ( I lurk only for big ticket events) and especially Rollo Tomasi, some of the best non-red tag model diagnostic discussions I have ever seen, and Eduggs holds his own. Sort of like Donald Sutherland in long range threads or wxmx (Jorge) in tropical threads or a couple of other names I am forgetting from the ENSO and long range and tropical threads. Best non-tag weather discussions in a subforum, IMHO. Rollo = messenger if I remember right, he changed his name like 80 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 popular book in dc tonight That isn't fair to call it deceit, and people in DC had sufficient model support fairly close in time to think they'd rate their way out of a marginal boundary layer. So even exaggeration seems harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 That isn't fair to call it deceit, and people in DC had sufficient model support fairly close in time to think they'd rate their way out of a marginal boundary layer. So even exaggeration seems harsh. Hell, sometimes forecasts bust. Don't think any of the mets down there really wanted to look like an a** and be that wrong, deceit is probably a little harsh lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Rollo = messenger if I remember right, he changed his name like 80 times. Yes..Does a great job here even though I don't under stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsw Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yes..Does a great job here even though I don't under stand. As people may have seen, I've lurked since 2005, just wanted to start adding OBS. Too involved in various board-riding groups to really participate here, just read and learn. The name changes are a little confusing to me, but no worries. You can tell by style sometimes. For me, content is the important thing. NWS - 3 to 6 inches here in Brattleboro. Will be closer to six in the mountains immediately to my West (i.e. Mount Snow and Stratton). I'm snowboarding tomorrow and Sunday. Tomorrow should be pretty fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Has there ever been a harder to forecast storm for CT than this one? I feel like every other model run offers a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Has there ever been a harder to forecast storm for CT than this one? I feel like every other model run offers a different solution. This is one of the wierdest ones I've seen in my time intrested in weather... I still have no idea what to think for tonight, 6z RGEM gives me warning criteria, while the 6z GFS is maybe 3". The actual totals now are coming into some agreement in the 4-6" range, although the method to get there has been nothing short of insane. It's been fun, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Catch-up time...WSW and upped the amounts to 10" in the warned area's. No dissappointment here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I hope you guys get buried but **** I might as well live in the deep south rather then here imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Thank god this ended up being snow and not rain, I've spent the last two days telling my friends I thought the news was wrong and we'd see more snow than rain. Shame averted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I can't believe the bust down there. What a disaster. I wouldhave busted horribly if I had to forecast that down there....maybe I'll get my chance to bust up here instead. The way that went down was literally the type of nightmare a snow weenie wakes up to with cold sweat. There is nothing worse than having the storm look fantastic on radar and everything going as planned and then it just craps out and flips to rain...and not even because temps aloft weren't cold enough. Then to watch RIC way to the south get crushed....just a sickening storm there today. Its going to make a great post-mortem case study though...I would be really interested in digging to see where it went wrong. The Weather Channel just said, "Trying to figure out the rain/snow line a day in advance is really asking more than science is able to give us at this point." That was in response to why the storm busted so bad in D.C... seemed a bit too generic and selling the science of meteorology short by telling the public that "we really aren't at a point where we can accurately predict these details with much confidence." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Again from outside the forum looking in. I don't know about the HRRR for very short term Winter forecasting but I have a love/hate relationship. 1) I love it because it has model and display resolution when centered on SCEN US to actually show supercells with well defined inflow notches, almost hook echoes. It is ultimate in severe weather pr0n. 2) But until thunderstorms actual initiate, it is way, way, way to generous in busting the cap in South Central and Southeast Texas. Useful only in almost Nowcast situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Just posted a question about snow on ground near Morrisey Blvd, having seen Dorchester mentioned. My late Grandmother (buried in an old cemetery in Marshfield by her mother, from Galway) lived in North Quincy, not far from the North Quincy T station. Before it was built, my only foreign born living relative (not counting mis suegros y sus familia) lived near where the tunnel started for Andrew Square in housing projects. Before the subway branch to Quincy Center was built, one took a bus to Fields Corner and road to Columbia or Andrew and walked to vist my Mom's Great Aunt Mary Lydon. Anyhoo, I have bowled both normal American style and candlepin style at a bowling alley on Morrissey Blvd, Carter administration. Bowling alley may not still be there. Mom's GAML would be about 110 now, and is probably not alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergoat Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Help me out. It occurred to me while following this perplexing storm... why is forecasting a stratiform winter event so much harder than one with clearer convective elements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 With the likely timing of this thing crushing us 1-11 am this looks to be perfectly set up for school closings come morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 I swear that some people would still complain if they recieved 6 feet just because someone else got 8. I personally made a call of 1-2 feet Monday generally speaking and stuck to it. I'm not dissapointed from the reports and amounts adding up. STFU and enjoy what you get. Keep the complaining to the people that deserve to - beachfront owners losing homes and property. To that end there is no comparing. Suckerholed with an all day non-accumulating snow yesterday holding amounts locally down but still 1"/hr rates with 8" otg and counting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 With what has fallen in this storm, where are ORH and Boston proper at for the season? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 I swear that some people would still complain if they recieved 6 feet just because someone else got 8. I personally made a call of 1-2 feet Monday generally speaking and stuck to it. I'm not dissapointed from the reports and amounts adding up. STFU and enjoy what you get. Keep the complaining to the people that deserve to - beachfront owners losing homes and property. To that end there is no comparing. Suckerholed with an all day non-accumulating snow yesterday holding amounts locally down but still 1"/hr rates with 8" otg and counting! You close to 20"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Good work board! This storm was no surprise to me. Once the models started locking in days ago that the bowling ball was not just going east off of NC but close enough to get us into the firehose and inverted trough I knew there was big potential. I was not sure of the thermal profile but the QPF amounts were huge. It was pathetic that the Boston mets were so off. 2 or 3 days ago everyone was still talking of a miss or a few inches in the hills. No one talked about the potential of much more if some of the models like the GFS were right. I said days ago the Mets should have said to keep up with latest forecasts. That still would not have helped as everyone played catchup right into the storm. That's what makes this board so great. Every angle was discussed and debated. Sure certain people wishcast but if you know who the good posters are and have at least some knowledge of Meteorology and of the models and how to read them then you were good. Well worth the $$ I spend on this board! Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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