ROOSTA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think alot of people can relate to naysayers that are ever present in the workplace. I probably should preface by stating I most always go balls-to-the-wall early when a "biggy" is in the deck. Numerous times over the years (sure busted on a few) blizzards are easy. Ends up you give 7 day lead time and refine as the storm unfolds. People are so skeptical but yet they ask. Put up a map for the Blizzard, toss amounts like 3 feet and still they have doubt. Well 3 feet verified! I was shocked with the media still at noon today sticking to the "watching" and the amounts woeful under-estimated in comparison to what the models where showing. All I said was a general 1 to 2 foot storm, Cape, immediate East facing coastal commuities much less with multiple cycle flooding as a major concern. Boy do I hope this overachieves and it looks like it will....fingers, toes-crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM verbatim supports the NOAA map well. Probably 4-8 or 5-10" here before a flip, more towards Bob before a flip. Looks like about 2.5" of QPF in Boston, here and the SE MA area. If I understood correctly this is pretty close to the Euro this morning, and really the GEFS too but the NAM torches us for more than 1/2 the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 All I said was a general 1 to 2 foot storm, setting yourself up for disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I've never wished against a snow storm as hard as I am right now, I'm sorry everyone, it's my wishing power that's making this forecast impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Gut feeling this storm is gonna be a pedestrian hit for us. Just not getting the vibe i usually feel before a biggie. Yeah i know, real scientific.. GFS really is first to pickup on trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Gut feeling this storm is gonna be a pedestrian hit for us. Just not getting the vibe i usually feel before a biggie. Yeah i know, real scientific.. GFS really is first to pickup on trends It also has a problem with totally losing it around 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ------------------------------------------------>>>> east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I have an honest chance at a foot plus, power outages, and tssn tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That is one funky evolution the GFS just spit out. Stretched-out, phasing out-of-sync. The block is creating model mayhem. No single model or individual run will verify perfect. Timing is critical. The door of opportunity is still present. This year just about every storm has simply been a clusterpuck but then again what storm isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Only 2 more hours before mets can come out from under their pillows and forecast a huge snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Only 2 more hours before mets can come out from under their pillows and forecast a huge snowstorm? God willing lol. I just want the satisfaction of seeing, "so as you can see we've upped the 2-3 region to 8-12..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Mike Wonkum ended his newscast by saying he thought kids would have school off Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I finally figured this all out. It's model conspiracy. Weenies get just enough insight to keep baited. The power brokers have some Superdupper computer stashed in a hidden location, infuse some bad data and only give the Pro's access to actually what the computer does with the good data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I finally figured this all out. It's model conspiracy. Weenies get just enough insight to keep baited. The power brokers have some Superdupper computer stashed in a hidden location, infuse some bad data and only give the Pro's access to actually what the computer does with the good data. It's the same thing we see when a forecast of 12-18" is going down the drain but people don't want to bail. People were locked into this being a miss and now don't want to come off that idea, JMHO. I mean if the 0z Euro holds anywhere near the last two runs...can we really wake up in the morning to 2" snow forecasts around Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I kinda wish Blizz was up to analyze the 00z GFS, I'm sure he'd have some choice commentary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It might be too early for an obs thread but bursts of light snow started about 20 minutes ago at work in Fitchburg. Drove home to a coating on all surfaces in Ashburnham. Nickle sized aggregates that accumulate well when it comes down heavy otherwise it's weenie flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Great to have a discussion thread turned into a banter thread. Happens every storm. What (why) are people interjecting emotional comments without basis? Did I miss something? The EURO has held serve. Reading through upteen posts is fantastic. Collectively it is what it is and has turned into. Guess it always going to be the same, trash the NAM bash the GFS and draw conclusions commenting emotionally on the output. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Great to have a discussion thread turned into a banter thread. Happens every storm. What (why) are people interjecting emotional comments without basis? Did I miss something? The EURO has held serve. Reading through upteen posts is fantastic. Collectively it is what it is and has turned into. Guess it always going to be the same, trash the NAM bash the GFS and draw conclusions commenting emotionally on the output. I don't get it. We try Don but I guess people don't understand the difference between discussion and banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 As far as BOXs discussion goes and forecast, they have spelled it out really nicely. There is a bust element to this system for some areas. I feel good about where I stand right now based on the models and their trends. BOX %s are pretty solid for 1,4,8,& 12" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 As far as BOXs discussion goes and forecast, they have spelled it out really nicely. There is a bust element to this system for some areas. I feel good about where I stand right now based on the models and their trends. BOX %s are pretty solid for 1,4,8,& 12" for the area. Yes, looks good at this point. Box has 100% for 1" 78% 4" 60% 8" and 30% for 12". If we really get 2" qpf we should do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Personally for the past few years my life has taken turns in bad ways, uncontrolled 5 year slide. My back, chronic pain 24/7. It's taken just about everything. The economic down turn. Almost losing the house, the ex contracting cancer moving out. In December my nephew took himself out of this world just as we where starting to talk again My employer has turn my job into a nightmare, outsourcing, management monitoring, implimenting such demeaning tactics using technology against the very people who for years have given time and effort. Enforcing by just production numbers which are never enough. Not once have I writ a comment to a fellow poster that was less than respectful. I try to keep coments in the threads that are appropriately dubbed. This forum in many ways is an outlet of sorts. I keep my personal crap to myself and not reflective of my hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Personally for the past few years my life has taken turns in bad ways, uncontrolled 5 year slide. My back, chronic pain 24/7. It's taken just about everything. The economic down turn. Almost losing the house, the ex contracting cancer moving out. In December my nephew took himself out of this world just as we where starting to talk again My employer has turn my job into a nightmare, outsourcing, management monitoring, implimenting such demeaning tactics using technology against the very people who for years have given time and effort. Enforcing by just production numbers which are never enough. Not once have I writ a comment to a fellow poster that was less than respectful. I try to keep coments in the threads that are appropriately dubbed. This forum in many ways is an outlet of sorts. I keep my personal crap to myself and not reflective of my hobby. I wish there were more civil people like you on the internet. Also sorry to hear about your struggles, good like to you mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The envelope of guidance has bodily shifted se..... the EURO again nudged in that direction, and my guess is that it will conrtinue to do so. Things are not holding serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 A se shift is a given. In nowcast mode. 00Z EURO still had copious QPF to deliver more than the totals of last year. And for this time of year 4" is bonus material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 A se shift is a given. In nowcast mode. 00Z EURO still had copious QPF to deliver more than the totals of last year. And for this time of year 4" is bonus material. I wouldn't call an inch of QPF "copious", but I suppose that is arbitrary....cut QPF n of Boston essentially in half, and the correction probably isn't done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm getting stiffed here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Going with 6-8" imby right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Forecasting yesterdays weather verifies 100% of the time. D'oh................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 DT posted this about an hour ago on facebook And let's hope that all those vile despicable arrogant weather ass wipes and weenies in New York City and New England get screwed over from the storm big time.( they wont southern New England will get a decent snow out of this but NYC might get shafted ... Boston and cape cod could get 12-18") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 DT=epic fail!! Mid atlantic whiners near the cities aren't doing well either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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