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March 6-8 Storm Banter


Baroclinic Zone

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You're more into this than I am but I would suggest that the general population has an attention span of about 15 minutes.  There is still ample time to warn the folks of SNE.

 

Agreed but that's why it'll take 2-3 cycles before the average Joe catches on.  Plus the stakes are pretty huge.  This is a power outage type deal where it's all snow.  IT COULD still be a sham and miss, but at this stage and at this proximity they've really dropped the ball.

 

If 1-2 feet falls in Boston and Providence all people are going to remember is how poorly forecast this was with no warning as they miss their flights, schools are cancelled, people sit in the dark etc.

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If you posted it in the disco thread, it would be removed.  They clamp down more in those threads than we do.  Banter thread should have been ok.

 

Yes, I'm going to use this as an opprtunity to tell people to post more in the storm banter thread (specifically created for this threat) if it is not direct model/pattern/storm analysis in this thread. Talking about storm impact is OK too I think....but the general banter of "is my flight going to be canceled" and that kind of stuff should go into the banter thread.

Now that we are starting to get closer to the event and since the Euro just dumped a huge snowstorm on a large chunk of SNE, we want to keep the content in the analysis thread more pure as the post rate will likely be increasing between now and tomorrow.

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2 questions:

 

How do the winds inland look with this?  It'll obviously be bad on the coast, but I can't believe the amount of large trees down around here from the blizzard.  If we get another batch of winds like that, it could be curtains for a lot of these weakened trees.

 

Also, are we still looking at a stall with this or is it pretty progressive.

 

Thanks

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2 questions:

 

How do the winds inland look with this?  It'll obviously be bad on the coast, but I can't believe the amount of large trees down around here from the blizzard.  If we get another batch of winds like that, it could be curtains for a lot of these weakened trees.

 

Also, are we still looking at a stall with this or is it pretty progressive.

 

Thanks

 

It's going to be bad.

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1st map from BOX is very nice.  Looking like the same areas that took the biggest beating a month ago are in line to do it again.  Messanger might want to grab that generator tonight.

 areas like lynn /peabody are in 4-6 while SE mass close to coast is much higher?

 

also looks like they anticipate mixing well into essex county or just prob a wetter paste....6-8 on woburn/burlington line while towns like dorchesta are 8-10. is the coastal front alligned NNW/SSE anyway no sense in looking to close at it. 

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 areas like lynn /peabody are in 4-6 while SE mass close to coast is much higher?

 

also looks like they anticipate mixing well into essex county or just prob a wetter paste....6-8 on woburn/burlington line while towns like dorchesta are 8-10. is the coastal front alligned NNW/SSE anyway no sense in looking to close at it. 

CFs are much less of a ptype issue this time of year. No one believes this but me but I know it's true. :P

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dynamics pickle.

ya i thought so to a degree but i mean are dynamics gonna be better .....10 miles NW of me (i'm at the kink on 128) directly N/NNW of boston.  BC....it has areas 3 miles to my east in 4-6. and areas 5-50miles WNW at 8-10, so theres more than dynamics at play. Ratio's . But of course making a snow map like that is an impossible task on this storm.

 

Lets just hope the ULL doesn't hightail it E /ENE off hatteras or that the firehose doesn't make of block island

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Doesn't look like much for Maine at all, everyone at the high school today was in a frenzy hoping for no school. Only a delay if that. Only looks like around 2-4 inches for us

 

Could be a decent wind event for us though...

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This storm does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling and we are a day out.   Model discrepancies with track and QPF, tight QPF gradient, questionable phasing time, marginal cold air to the N,  an ULL that is precariously placed, GFS and Ukie heading more ots than previous runs, NAM drilling 0c  line to Albany yet Euro coming n cold and caving to earlier GFS depictions. 

It seems like there is an awful lot that could still go wrong not the least of which is a less robust system kicking further E producing hours of meh' for most.

I'm still rooting for the big hit of course just not feeling any confidence about it.

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