Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LSV you guys are fine. Central Mtns. not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 and the rate in which its starts would also have an affect correct? Say if it starts heavier, it would accumlate quicker! I would say timing more important than rate... starting overnight at coldest diurnal point of the day will accumulate no matter the rate. A strong band to start would be nice to get a decent accumulation started and that will keep temps down during the day for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can a MET explain why the NAM has been doing this? Notice the circled area how the qpf drops off pretty significantly. Normally we see the opposite effect as the upsloping in eastern Westmoreland county usually yields higher qpf. It doesn't really affect my backyard, but I keep noticing it do this so there must be a good reason. Edit, it would also seem to be in contradiction to NWS Pittsburgh having those areas in a Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol according to nam I would only need to take a 25 min ride from where I work to get in good snow. Unv crowd same thing in light precip. a shirt ride from good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can a MET explain why the NAM has been doing this? Notice the circled area how the qpf drops off pretty significantly. Normally we see the opposite effect as the upsloping in eastern Westmoreland county usually yields higher qpf. It doesn't really affect my backyard, but I keep noticing it do this so there must be a good reason. NAM.JPG NAM looks to be transferring the energy completely to the low heading for the coast there and the dying piece of energy hits allegheny county while there is a hole over westmoreland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 EAS picked a helluva time to initiate their school warning test... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I would say timing more important than rate... starting overnight at coldest diurnal point of the day will accumulate no matter the rate. A strong band to start would be nice to get a decent accumulation started and that will keep temps down during the day for sure. ok got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 30 to 45 mile jump north at 18z...book it. (takes weather weenie hat off.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 30 to 45 mile jump north at 18z...book it. (takes weather weenie hat off.) you could make a beer bet like Canderson..... way off topic, but to all you Steelers fans, today is my childhood heros birthday, Rocky Bleier is 67! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can a MET explain why the NAM has been doing this? Notice the circled area how the qpf drops off pretty significantly. Normally we see the opposite effect as the upsloping in eastern Westmoreland county usually yields higher qpf. It doesn't really affect my backyard, but I keep noticing it do this so there must be a good reason. NAM.JPG Edit, it would also seem to be in contradiction to NWS Pittsburgh having those areas in a Winter Storm Warning. NAM obviously despises Tarentum, New Ken, and Westmoreland County. EAS picked a helluva time to initiate their school warning test... LOL...really? That's funny. 30 to 45 mile jump north at 18z...book it. (takes weather weenie hat off.) Nice. I wanted to avoid taking a shirt ride In other news, Henry M. made what might be the most disturbing Tweet ever by a weather guy: Accu_Henry Enough tweeting time for Big Daddy dreams.13 hours ago · reply · retweet · favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Will be curious to see how this changes over the day. Mean "looks" good but not sure if that's reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 JESUS! Holy Sandusky, HM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Will be curious to see how this changes over the day. Mean "looks" good but not sure if that's reality. Looks to be about 9.73" at LNS after tossing the outliers. It might be a little on the high side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I wonder when NWS will put out Winter Storm Warning for York. Looks like 10 inches is a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hahahaha Atomix nice work. And jamie, I blame my android for that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Weather Channel is taking their 5-8 swath all the way to f'n Allentown. Has 8-12 from US 22 on south and 12+ near the turnpike. I mean, I had to watch for 5 hours to get their accumulation map to move north of DC because apparently, "**** Central PA". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 JESUS! Holy Sandusky, HM! you know i just spit my coffee out laughing at you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I wonder when NWS will put out Winter Storm Warning for York. Looks like 10 inches is a good call[/quote New snow map suggest pretty soon. 12-18 popping up now in south centrl mountains 6-8 safely into York and Lancaster counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 JESUS! Holy Sandusky, HM! Hey I thought you said to leave Christ out of this since he's busy with the pope stuff :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And theres the 12z gfs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z GFS is bone dry now...lol, these models are unbelievable nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I wonder when NWS will put out Winter Storm Warning for York. Looks like 10 inches is a good call You really need to stop posting. You just said a few hours ago York should be in a WWA, and now you do this. You cannot jump on every model of every run. You might as well go back to your WWA after you see the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can a MET explain why the NAM has been doing this? Notice the circled area how the qpf drops off pretty significantly. Normally we see the opposite effect as the upsloping in eastern Westmoreland county usually yields higher qpf. It doesn't really affect my backyard, but I keep noticing it do this so there must be a good reason. NAM.JPG Edit, it would also seem to be in contradiction to NWS Pittsburgh having those areas in a Winter Storm Warning. With an easterly wind component it could be downsloping off the laurel highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So it's sounding like the GFS cut back precip pretty good north of the MD line :-( I think we've all been looking at these NAM runs thinking we look great when in reality the GFS nor EURO support those big totals in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So it's sounding like the GFS cut back precip pretty good north of the MD line :-( I think we've all been looking at these NAM runs thinking we look great when in reality the GFS nor EURO support those big totals in the LSV. GFS has barely changed since 18z yesterday... only differences are the light precip output north of southern PA... other than that it has kept MDT near .4"-.5" and york .5"-.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS has massive feedback issues in my view. From the Philly forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Mitchell Gaines said it was having massive feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 just as a caution... I know a bunch of us also read and sometimes post in the other region forums... when coming back to here to describe what they are talking about for model runs/etc just remember what region they are describing first... sometimes they may say things like "its warmer" or "less precip on this run" and might be talking about a specific location without actually saying that... so to others it looks like they are saying the model run is warmer as a whole or has less precip output as a whole... edit: was typing this as you posted jns just to make sure you know it is not directed at what you posted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Maytownpawx....yeah WWA sounds right for York. Was basing my call off the NAM and GFS vs the EURO. Now definitely can't go against GFS and Euro combo. Sorry but don't see 6 inches of snow anywhere young man Thanks for the compliment, I'm likely old enough to be your father, and...you do this all the time. Meterology is much more than model jumping, son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I just thought his view of possible feedback issues was relevant for the the GFS run as a whole because he is a Met. Does he work at Mt. Holly? Edit: Djr, just thought I should have backed up my reason for posting his view in our forum. You responded as I was typing, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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