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Central PA - March 2013


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I think we need double digits...I want to say 11.5 or 12. Not gonna happen. I do think we sneek an inch or two out Monday on cold surfaces.

 

IPT area is officially at about 27.1" for the season. 1981-2010 average is 36.4".. so bout 9 inches off unless your using the long term one since 1895, which in that case would be 11.7". Probably subtract a little off that from todays event, I would think Williamsport snuck some kind of measureable snowfall since things ended up a lil further north. 

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I was just getting ready to report that djr but i don't have us much down here in the flat lands! Ground is covered though

grass was covered here this morning... then melted... then back to what it was this morning now... road/sidewalk/driveway still just wet

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At break in my conference at the Penn Stater, eyeballing it I'd say we got close to 3. Here's the latest accumulations:

...CENTRE COUNTY...   BLANCHARD              3.0  1245 PM  3/16  SOCIAL MEDIA   PORT MATILDA           2.2  1100 AM  3/16  NWS EMPLOYEE   STORMSTOWN             2.0  1230 PM  3/16  CO-OP OBSERVER   PARK FOREST            2.0  1100 AM  3/16  NWS EMPLOYEE

The snow is varying in intensity, comes down very hard at times. Kudos to NWS CTP for calling for 1-3, I was skeptical.

Yea it was a pretty good call, there was even a 4" report in Clearfield county. Things snuck a hair north at the last moment which was picked up on models making it a Clearfield/Centre bullseye instead of what had been looking like more of a Cambria/Blair one. That PNS had some pretty decent totals a bit further up in the north-central as well.

Early week system should be interesting. I noticed models are hanging alot of precip south of the mason-dixon for awhile before lifting up through PA. NAM/GFS/SREFs seem to be trying to get some overrunning snows on the boundary along the I-68 to I-70 corridor right to DC. GFS almost looked like it had better snow chances on the back end of the storm than it did at the beginning for C-PA. Given today's system ended up a bit further north (certainly further north than it was looking a couple days ago), might have to watch this potential overrunning area to end up a little further north as well. That just kind of looks modeled a bit south to me attm, but we'll see. This type of boundary set up with one system quickly following on the heels of the other usually likes to favor the second storms snow area not venturing too far from the first one. But the developing high to the north will help dictate things as well as where the frontal boundary settles. I think it still looks like an advisory event to me in the north central when all is set and done, and a good chance it is one for the rest of the central counties with some of the Sus Valley (Harrisburg area) getting an inch or two. Don't hold me to that though haha, still a lot of details to hash out.

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Wow Euros feisty for UNV:

 

 

MON 18Z 18-MAR  -3.7    -4.9    1024      82      99    0.24     558     539    TUE 00Z 19-MAR  -2.4    -4.1    1018      92     100    0.28     557     543    TUE 06Z 19-MAR  -0.6     0.1    1011      96      99    0.38     553     544    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   0.8    -1.3    1009      96      24    0.15     546     539  

 

Thats over half an inch of QPF easily as snow, a 0.38" 6 hour frame where 850s get to essentially right at the freezing point but surface temps slightly below freezing (perhaps some mixing at some point in that 6 hour frame) and then another 0.15 with 850s back below and surface near freezing. That'd either be a snow bomb or something close to it. 

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You have ipt bud?

 

QPF is just about an inch, your 850s stay below freezing so probably mostly or all snow. Good timing as well, with bulk of precip falling late in the day and overnight.

 

 

ON 18Z 18-MAR  -2.7    -5.8    1026      65     100    0.07     557     537    TUE 00Z 19-MAR  -3.1    -5.3    1020      90      99    0.31     557     541    TUE 06Z 19-MAR  -1.8    -0.9    1013      95     100    0.33     553     543    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   0.3    -0.9    1008      98      34    0.26     548     541 
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Wow..big differences in GFS and EURO.....Euro has been dead on consistent for awhile now with this

someone correct me if I am wrong but from the little I have been able to look at 12z Euro and GFS runs it looks like Euro has coldest temp profile, and NAM warmest with GFS in between?

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here's the euro with counties

The primary low is way north over Lake Superior so the warm push wouldn't be as strong as a low over OH. If it comes in fast enough I could see a nice thump happening for many in this forum, perhaps even down to MDT. Euro looks like it has about a foot of snow from UNV to near Lock Haven, likely a little too cold (it's run a little cold in some of the storms this year) but it shows the threat for more of a front-end heavy snow for at least a few hours and probably sleet/ZR thereafter as the warm push shouldn't be overwhelming.

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The primary low is way north over Lake Superior so the warm push wouldn't be as strong as a low over OH. If it comes in fast enough I could see a nice thump happening for many in this forum, perhaps even down to MDT. Euro looks like it has about a foot of snow from UNV to near Lock Haven, likely a little too cold (it's run a little cold in some of the storms this year) but it shows the threat for more of a front-end heavy snow for at least a few hours and probably sleet/ZR thereafter as the warm push shouldn't be overwhelming.

 

This I agree with.

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