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Central PA - March 2013


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The leading edge of the clipper that will arrive tomorrow is not producing anything over a tenth of an inch right now in Wisconsin/Illinois... the main energy over North Dakota has a couple stations reporting ridiculous 1 hour precip totals... 4 different stations reporting +SN 1/4 mile visibility and 1 hour precip totals of .71", .78", 1.23", and 1.43" at 18z ... not sure how easy to believe but with current temps that would be absolutely ridiculous snowfall rates

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with enough of 12z Euro in... for Monday... both Euro and GFS are in agreement that it is going to be pretty wet... but both flood warm enough to not be snow air into the region... with the timing of late afternoon Monday into the day on Tuesday I just dont see enough cold air for snow in the Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Pittsburgh, etc areas... higher elevations and locations to the north have the best shot, though I do believe it wont be much more than 1-3" before changing over to rain that quickly melts it all away....

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Euro 12Z

 

MDT

 

MON 18Z 18-MAR   0.3    -3.5    1027      60     100    0.04     560     539    TUE 00Z 19-MAR   0.1    -2.4    1021      89     100    0.22     560     544    TUE 06Z 19-MAR   2.2     3.6    1011      98     100    0.39     557     548    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   2.7     1.6    1007      96      43    0.52     550     544 

UNV

 

 

MON 18Z 18-MAR  -2.2    -4.1    1026      66     100    0.07     559     539    TUE 00Z 19-MAR  -1.9    -3.9    1018      92     100    0.26     558     544    TUE 06Z 19-MAR  -0.3     0.5    1011      96     100    0.32     553     545    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   1.7    -2.6    1007      93      18    0.24     544     538

 

IPT

 

 

TUE 00Z 19-MAR  -2.0    -4.7    1020      87      99    0.17     558     542    TUE 06Z 19-MAR  -0.9    -0.1    1012      96     100    0.32     554     544    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   0.5    -0.8    1007      98      37    0.40     546     541    TUE 18Z 19-MAR   3.5    -6.5    1007      61      29    0.01     532     526

 

Congrats IPT....appears to stay mostly frozen there according to the Euro. Majority of precip at UNV is frozen of some sort. Maybe an inch or so at MDT before rain. 

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Man, HM is posting some interesting thoughts right now in the Philly thread...

 

We need a system to swing through right before another one to drop some cold air into the region.  Other wise there just is not any cold air locked in for our area to see snow.

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These next two systems will likely be favoring the true central counties snowwise. Tomorrow's system may try to sneak some snows further east to places like Harrisburg if the rates are good enough. I wouldn't expect any noteworthy accums that far east.. perhaps a coating to an inch. Best snow chances on SREFs seem to be favoring Cambria/Blair/Clearfield/Centre counties, which is primarily where CTP has 2-3"expected. I'm thinking mainly a 1-2" deal in the best areas, with perhaps a scattered 3" here and there in the higher elevations.

The next system will be more widespread and have more moisture. SREFs paint pretty good probs of 1+ for the central counties and that includes the north central as well (northern tier looks to be missing the best precip with tomorrows system). Could be a decent advisory snowfall for at least the north central and perhaps the central counties under I-80 depending on how the cold holds. North central looks in pretty good shape regardless, further south is a bit of a tossup yet. I'm a bit leery of that second system with the primary low to the west. Whether we have a quick burst of snow or a more significant one is gonna hinge on secondary development. I noticed the GGEM run today was a little bit warmer with both systems having the snow more in the northcentral with light rain south with system #1 and less snow overall for #2. I bring that one up cuz that did a pretty decent job with the March 6th storm debacle with regards to ptypes and having rain in the Sus Valley. I'm still a bit salty about that storm. I know alot of folks got smoked with the predictions like I did but I should've recognized the crappy antecedent cold and raging easterly flow before overextending my snow ranges in the east...especially since I was on the right track in my postings a few days earlier. Oh well. The cold air available for these next two systems is probably a bit better than that storm but we'll see if it'll be enough to deliver some flakes outside of the favored areas.

Regardless of what these next couple systems do in PA, it's looking pretty obvious at the moment that mother nature is punting any kind of bonafide spring weather until April.

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Regardless of what these next couple systems do in PA, it's looking pretty obvious at the moment that mother nature is punting any kind of bonafide spring weather until April.

 

Personally, I'd like to give mother nature a good swift kick in the ass. I'm not fond of winter, but to have it linger on just sucks. On a serious note, I know it's only mid March, and technically it's still astrologically winter, but I'd like to start seeing a few mild, spring-like breaks in between the cooler spells.

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These next two systems will likely be favoring the true central counties snowwise. Tomorrow's system may try to sneak some snows further east to places like Harrisburg if the rates are good enough. I wouldn't expect any noteworthy accums that far east.. perhaps a coating to an inch. Best snow chances on SREFs seem to be favoring Cambria/Blair/Clearfield/Centre counties, which is primarily where CTP has 2-3"expected. I'm thinking mainly a 1-2" deal in the best areas, with perhaps a scattered 3" here and there in the higher elevations.

The next system will be more widespread and have more moisture. SREFs paint pretty good probs of 1+ for the central counties and that includes the north central as well (northern tier looks to be missing the best precip with tomorrows system). Could be a decent advisory snowfall for at least the north central and perhaps the central counties under I-80 depending on how the cold holds. North central looks in pretty good shape regardless, further south is a bit of a tossup yet. I'm a bit leery of that second system with the primary low to the west. Whether we have a quick burst of snow or a more significant one is gonna hinge on secondary development. I noticed the GGEM run today was a little bit warmer with both systems having the snow more in the northcentral with light rain south with system #1 and less snow overall for #2. I bring that one up cuz that did a pretty decent job with the March 6th storm debacle with regards to ptypes and having rain in the Sus Valley. I'm still a bit salty about that storm. I know alot of folks got smoked with the predictions like I did but I should've recognized the crappy antecedent cold and raging easterly flow before overextending my snow ranges in the east...especially since I was on the right track in my postings a few days earlier. Oh well. The cold air available for these next two systems is probably a bit better than that storm but we'll see if it'll be enough to deliver some flakes outside of the favored areas.

Regardless of what these next couple systems do in PA, it's looking pretty obvious at the moment that mother nature is punting any kind of bonafide spring weather until April.

 

I am pretty interested in the late month period as well, like starting 3/22

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From DT. I, admittedly haven't been paying much attention lately, but this seems like it's waaaay high...

 

I agree that this seems way too high for PA. Especially given the setup with primary well west and late blooming secondary and just the usual mid march issues with temps and time of day. I've been eyeing advisory type snows (2-5" ish) with this early week event.. likely focused primarily in the north central counties where cold air and snow hold on longest. 

 

Got some flakes flying already from this first event. Temps down to about 34ºF with some light snow falling right now.

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I agree that this seems way too high for PA. Especially given the setup with primary well west and late blooming secondary and just the usual mid march issues with temps and time of day. I've been eyeing advisory type snows (2-5" ish) with this early week event.. likely focused primarily in the north central counties where cold air and snow hold on longest. 

 

Got some flakes flying already from this first event. Temps down to about 34ºF with some light snow falling right now.

it has been snowing here for the last 4 or 5 hours.

the ground is white but no more than 1/4" or so..

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9Z Srefs similar to 6Z GFS. 850 line doesn't cross till 60 hrs south and 69 north with .5-1" qpf fallen by that time. Colder than last run and more precip. I am very skeptical and why shouldn't anyone be after all the scams we have seen but, i'd laugh if this was one of the biggest snows of the season. I am only 6 inches away from average. Bring it. 

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9Z Srefs similar to 6Z GFS. 850 line doesn't cross till 60 hrs south and 69 north with .5-1" qpf fallen by that time. Colder than last run and more precip. I am very skeptical and why shouldn't anyone be after all the scams we have seen but, i'd laugh if this was one of the biggest snows of the season. I am only 6 inches away from average. Bring it. 

 

F the GFS.

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