Central PA - March 2013

[Laurel Highlands Wx]

I ended up with 3.5" but it pretty much is all gone because once the snow ended we spiked to 40.

 

A few points that i thought were interesting: (feedback appreciated)

 

1. It seems the Canadian was accurate with the precip type.

2. It seems to me that the strong easterly flow helped to cause a reverse up slope band  that was enhanced along the 22/ 422 corridor.

3. There was no northern stream interaction hence the low didn't deepen as much. No cold air drained in.

4. The low stalling because of problem 3 cause air off the ocean to flood inland.

5. sloppy transfer from primary to coastal caused the precip shield to weaken and become disorganized, which killed snow rates.

6. The Jim Cantore jinx. Enough said...lol

 

If I am wrong about something feel free to let me know. I am always eager to learn about something new.

[CoraopolisWx]

I ended up with 3.5" but it pretty much is all gone because once the snow ended we spiked to 40.

A few points that i thought were interesting: (feedback appreciated)

1. It seems the Canadian was accurate with the precip type.

2. It seems to me that the strong easterly flow helped to cause a reverse up slope band that was enhanced along the 22/ 422 corridor.

3. There was no northern stream interaction hence the low didn't deepen as much. No cold air drained in.

4. The low stalling because of problem 3 cause air off the ocean to flood inland.

5. sloppy transfer from primary to coastal caused the precip shield to weaken and become disorganized, which killed snow rates.

6. The Jim Cantore jinx. Enough said...lol

If I am wrong about something feel free to let me know. I am always eager to learn about something new.

Sounds good to me.

Outside of that superband northeast of pgh, not much widespread amounts over 6".

[canderson]

Two of our members, Jeff and Steve, are interviewed in this story about today's debacle.

http://blog.pennlive.com/go/2013/03/we_blew_that_forecast_views_fr.html#incart_river_default

[MAG5035]

I'm not sure what happened that got area in SW PA 10-12 inches but not a single model showed that happening especially that far North. I definitely think timing was huge, all of the snow fell overnight. It was an amazing scene around 6am this morning with snow ripping and everything pasted.

 

To make everyone who didn't get much feel better, by 1pm today we had temps in the low 40s with sun. Compaction combined with melting shrunk the snow pack by half if not more. Now I'd say I only have 1/4 of what I measured this morning. It's like that saying about the chess pieces, at the end of the game they all go back in the same box, by Sunday this week we will all have bare ground again.

 

 

I ended up with 3.5" but it pretty much is all gone because once the snow ended we spiked to 40.

 

A few points that i thought were interesting: (feedback appreciated)

 

1. It seems the Canadian was accurate with the precip type.

2. It seems to me that the strong easterly flow helped to cause a reverse up slope band  that was enhanced along the 22/ 422 corridor.

3. There was no northern stream interaction hence the low didn't deepen as much. No cold air drained in.

4. The low stalling because of problem 3 cause air off the ocean to flood inland.

5. sloppy transfer from primary to coastal caused the precip shield to weaken and become disorganized, which killed snow rates.

6. The Jim Cantore jinx. Enough said...lol

 

If I am wrong about something feel free to let me know. I am always eager to learn about something new.

 

Rates were important to realize snow totals, especially in the eastern end of the state. It almost seemed to me that the PA banding peaked early, and thus dropped the hammer down in that stripe of western PA and over into south central PA as well (JST-AOO corridor) instead of further east southeast along the southern tier of PA. It also helped that region that this happened overnight into early this morning. Further east, the lack of intense rates cut down on snowfall accums and then ptype as daytime heating and warm b-layer temps came into play as precip rates couldn't counteract the warmer easterly fetch.

 

When the secondary low took over in earnest, it ended up tracking from central NC to near Norfolk to just east of the Delmarva and stalling and fading slowly ene now. That was more of a further south Euro-esque track vs solutions like the NAM and GFS that had been getting the low over the southern Delmarva and attempting to make more of a ne turn. Recall the Euro had been alot lower QPF wise in the LSV sites vs the NAM/SREF/GEFS. The transfer from the secondary low in central OH to the coastal low moving out of northern NC likely happened at the right time to favor that ESE-ward propagating PIT-AOO warning level snowfall stripe. Northern/Central VA got the advertised high end potential of this system as they were far enough south and had enough elevation to really cash in on the deform from the established coastal low. 

 

I think that covers my take on most of 15714's points. As for point #6, I dunno if I've ever seen Jim Cantore get shut out of a snowstorm haha. That either speaks volumes about how rough the short term forecasting was for this event, or that TWC was going for the ratings reporting from the nations capital.. or probably both. Cantore should've went somewhere in northern VA to guarantee his usual being in the middle of ridiculous weather. 

 

Speaking of the nations capital, Snowquester... thats cute.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/06/us/winter-weather/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

[Laurel Highlands Wx]

Rates were important to realize snow totals, especially in the eastern end of the state. It almost seemed to me that the PA banding peaked early, and thus dropped the hammer down in that stripe of western PA and over into south central PA as well (JST-AOO corridor) instead of further east southeast along the southern tier of PA. It also helped that region that this happened overnight into early this morning. Further east, the lack of intense rates cut down on snowfall accums and then ptype as daytime heating and warm b-layer temps came into play as precip rates couldn't counteract the warmer easterly fetch.

 

When the secondary low took over in earnest, it ended up tracking from central NC to near Norfolk to just east of the Delmarva and stalling and fading slowly ene now. That was more of a further south Euro-esque track vs solutions like the NAM and GFS that had been getting the low over the southern Delmarva and attempting to make more of a ne turn. Recall the Euro had been alot lower QPF wise in the LSV sites vs the NAM/SREF/GEFS. The transfer from the secondary low in central OH to the coastal low moving out of northern NC likely happened at the right time to favor that ESE-ward propagating PIT-AOO warning level snowfall stripe. Northern/Central VA got the advertised high end potential of this system as they were far enough south and had enough elevation to really cash in on the deform from the established coastal low. 

 

I think that covers my take on most of 15714's points. As for point #6, I dunno if I've ever seen Jim Cantore get shut out of a snowstorm haha. That either speaks volumes about how rough the short term forecasting was for this event, or that TWC was going for the ratings reporting from the nations capital.. or probably both. Cantore should've went somewhere in northern VA to guarantee his usual being in the middle of ridiculous weather. 

 

Speaking of the nations capital, Snowquester... thats cute.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/06/us/winter-weather/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

 

Very good points. I guess the primary being in a good location when the transfer occurred was in theory like Feb 5/6 2010 which helped areas further north.

[Paweatherguy1]

It's not that simple.  This was a complete BUST.  Forget about 50 miles.  The only place this produced was in central and northern Virginia.

 

Not true. Overperformed a bit around my parts.

[JamieOber]

Haha the Peggy Lee "Is that all there is?" storm.

 

I think you still would take that one over this one.

 

6mar2001.jpg

 

 

Heck yea, we still had 9 or so in 2001 storm.

 

 

If 2001 repeated today I think about 90% of the NYC/MA subforums would be 5-posted...

 

One thing to keep in mind, view those snow totals through the hype prism. This storm had the potential to drop 2-3 feet on us in true Central PA, with high winds. At AccuWx I heard about how one of the PA papers had a headline "Blizzard will be worse than 1993 Superstorm, forecasters fear". They talked about how towns up here were worried about being cut off for a week, massive power outages. My brother called me and said the local TV (channels 21, 27, 8, 43) was talking about the worst storm of all time. The ETA had something like 4" of QPF for central PA. The national news added to it, talking about the new storm of the century.

 

My next door neighbor said the Port Matilda VFD gathered a fleet  of snowmobiles because there were fears roads would be closed for several days. He told me  it ended up being more or less an average snowstorm here, hardly any road issues.

 

So, 9" when you are expecting 2-3' and 50+ mph winds? Or, in the Susquehanna Valley's case, .5-3" when you are expecting 2'?

 

That was the Titanic of forecast ****-ups. This is a drunk fisherman flipping over his bass boat after running into a rock in the Susquehanna.

[Paweatherguy1]

One thing to keep in mind, view those snow totals through the hype prism. This storm had the potential to drop 2-3 feet on us in true Central PA, with high winds. At AccuWx I heard about how one of the PA papers had a headline "Blizzard will be worse than 1993 Superstorm, forecasters fear". They talked about how towns up here were worried about being cut off for a week, massive power outages. My brother called me and said the local TV (channels 21, 27, 8, 43) was talking about the worst storm of all time. The ETA had something like 4" of QPF for central PA. The national news added to it, talking about the new storm of the century.

 

My next door neighbor said the Port Matilda VFD gathered a fleet  of snowmobiles because there were fears roads would be closed for several days. He told me  it ended up being more or less an average snowstorm here, hardly any road issues.

 

So, 9" when you are expecting 2-3' and 50+ mph winds? Or, in the Susquehanna Valley's case, .5-3" when you are expecting 2'?

 

That was the Titanic of forecast ****-ups. This is a drunk fisherman flipping over his bass boat after running into a rock in the Susquehanna.

 

For you guys, yes. However, this is pretty epic for DC, Baltimore, etc. They were looking at a historic 10-15 inch storm in that corridor for this time of year, and many ended up with zilch. 

 

For you guys, there was always a bust potential. Heck, it was 50/50 either way that anything would happen.

 

For DC/Baltimore, there was bust potential, but I don't think people thought that they were going to go from 10 inches to nothing in that area.

[NortheastPAWx]

I saw the old video of Kocin's forecast for the 4-6 March 2001 event. Had MBY on the border of the large 2' area.

 

I remember the Emergency Alert System going off all night for a Blizzard Warning and the potential for 18-24"+ of snow.

 

Total snowfall I think was about 10". A bust but at least still a significant snow.

[Santa Clause]

Lets make 93 happen again...Its been since 03 that we have sniffed a foot in a storm. We has 9 on vday storm and 9 in the rain to snow 2 ago...so weve done fine..but lacked the big daddy as Henry would say.

[WmsptWx]

Here's how I would analogize it.

 

I remember in 1996 (I wasn't old enough to understand models and that stuff) we were expecting a big snow storm, 3 feet. I went to bed expecting a ****load of snow on top of the ****load of snow I had already gotten. I woke up to almost all the snow being gone and the bridge just down the road from my high school being gone...

[Paweatherguy1]

Lets make 93 happen again...Its been since 03 that we have sniffed a foot in a storm. We has 9 on vday storm and 9 in the rain to snow 2 ago...so weve done fine..but lacked the big daddy as Henry would say.

 

You'll get it eventually. KPIT went through the same thing before the Feb 2010 event. I think we went over 10 years without a 10+ inch event before that one where we ended over 20 inches.

 

There is a reason 12+ events are rare, obviously.

[JamieOber]

For you guys, yes. However, this is pretty epic for DC, Baltimore, etc. They were looking at a historic 10-15 inch storm in that corridor for this time of year, and many ended up with zilch. 

 

For you guys, there was always a bust potential. Heck, it was 50/50 either way that anything would happen.

 

For DC/Baltimore, there was bust potential, but I don't think people thought that they were going to go from 10 inches to nothing in that area.

 

I saw the old video of Kocin's forecast for the 4-6 March 2001 event. Had MBY on the border of the large 2' area.

 

I remember the Emergency Alert System going off all night for a Blizzard Warning and the potential for 18-24"+ of snow.

 

Total snowfall I think was about 10". A bust but at least still a significant snow.

On a large scale, this doesn't compare to that. For DC, 2001 was worst.

 

Blizzard conditions from central VA to Maine, temps in the upper teens/low 20s, over 2 ft from VA north including the big cities, massive coastal flooding.

 

Find me an article that has this verbage leading up to this storm:

 

"A blizzard is in the making today, with forecasters urging residents from Washington to Boston to ready for an immobilizing two feet or more of snow."

 

http://bit.ly/12vr8uO

 

The 2001 was supposed to be DC-Philly's worst of all time, and they got zilch.

 

I mean...today was a bad bust but if you talk to any forecaster working then, they will tell you this is not near as bad of a debacle.

[MAG5035]

One thing to keep in mind, view those snow totals through the hype prism. This storm had the potential to drop 2-3 feet on us in true Central PA, with high winds. At AccuWx I heard about how one of the PA papers had a headline "Blizzard will be worse than 1993 Superstorm, forecasters fear". They talked about how towns up here were worried about being cut off for a week, massive power outages. My brother called me and said the local TV (channels 21, 27, 8, 43) was talking about the worst storm of all time. The ETA had something like 4" of QPF for central PA. The national news added to it, talking about the new storm of the century.

 

My next door neighbor said the Port Matilda VFD gathered a fleet  of snowmobiles because there were fears roads would be closed for several days. He told me  it ended up being more or less an average snowstorm here, hardly any road issues.

 

So, 9" when you are expecting 2-3' and 50+ mph winds? Or, in the Susquehanna Valley's case, .5-3" when you are expecting 2'?

 

That was the Titanic of forecast ****-ups. This is a drunk fisherman flipping over his bass boat after running into a rock in the Susquehanna.

 

Yea i'm certainly not saying the magnitude of this bust was anything like that one. This one having the potential of being a debacle was known or it definitely should've been known considering the forecast uncertainty right up through the start of this thing. I couldn't imagine the blogosphere these days if we had a forecast bust of that magnitude where DC/Philly/NYC go from expecting worst blizzard ever to nothing. There'd be stabbings and lynch mobs haha. 

[WmsptWx]

The millennial storm would have thinned the herd a LOT had these forums existed then.

[JamieOber]

Yea i'm certainly not saying the magnitude of this bust was anything like that one. This one having the potential of being a debacle was known or it definitely should've been known considering the forecast uncertainty right up through the start of this thing. I couldn't imagine the blogosphere these days if we had a forecast bust of that magnitude where DC/Philly/NYC go from expecting worst blizzard ever to nothing. There'd be stabbings and lynch mobs haha. 

 

Oh, no doubt. Also, I know this crowd. I've been around this general group for 13 years. The freakouts would have been profound if that happened today. For example I doubt wmsptwx would be all "lol guys at least I got 9" really I'm fine with that" if he was expecting whiteouts and snow in feet. We all would have been bummed. Heh, the York/Adams/Harrisburg/Lancaster crew really would have freaked. I know every now and then someone asks "what if March 2001 happened today" and someone will always say "NEVER mention that bust again" lol.

 

The NEWX usenet group and the Weather Channel's board was wild stuff. I am not sure but I think that was the genesis of the fight that caused DT to wish death on some dude's baby.

 

The millennial storm would have thinned the herd a LOT had these forums existed then.

 

Yeah, lol, that's another one. Was that the one where eastern Lancaster County had ripping snow and western Lancaster County had blue skies?

[Santa Clause]

So fellas, whats next? As long as its interesting I dont care what precip type.

[JamieOber]

So fellas, whats next? As long as its interesting I dont care what precip type.

18Z GFS is really close to an ice storm for us middle of next week but I don't really buy it. Doubt anyone else does.

[MAG5035]

Oh, no doubt. Also, I know this crowd. I've been around this general group for 13 years. The freakouts would have been profound if that happened today. For example I doubt wmsptwx would be all "lol guys at least I got 9" really I'm fine with that" if he was expecting whiteouts and snow in feet. We all would have been bummed. Heh, the York/Adams/Harrisburg/Lancaster crew really would have freaked. I know every now and then someone asks "what if March 2001 happened today" and someone will always say "NEVER mention that bust again" lol.

 

The NEWX usenet group and the Weather Channel's board was wild stuff. I am not sure but I think that was the genesis of the fight that caused DT to wish death on some dude's baby.

 

 

Yeah, lol, that's another one. Was that the one where eastern Lancaster County had ripping snow and western Lancaster County had blue skies?

 

Lol that sounds entirely plausible and I can't imagine a better event than that one for such things. 

 

Boy the gradient was ridiculous in our parts today. 7-7.5" inches of snow in Altoona, 3 here and nothing once to about the Blair/Centre line. Also heard there was no snow over the mountain northeast of Bellwood and out into northern Huntingdon County either. 

[Rick G]

Roads are being brined in my area. We are up for a couple of inches here in the next day or so.

[NortheastPAWx]

lol we're still on Storm Mode.

 

We need LakeEffectKing's non-storm mode thread rebumped.

[paweather]

We are due 2013-14 hope

[canderson]

Here's how I would analogize it.

 

I remember in 1996 (I wasn't old enough to understand models and that stuff) ...

So not much has changed in 17 years, huh?

*rimshot*

[WmsptWx]

[sauss06]

One thing to keep in mind, view those snow totals through the hype prism. This storm had the potential to drop 2-3 feet on us in true Central PA, with high winds. At AccuWx I heard about how one of the PA papers had a headline "Blizzard will be worse than 1993 Superstorm, forecasters fear". They talked about how towns up here were worried about being cut off for a week, massive power outages. My brother called me and said the local TV (channels 21, 27, 8, 43) was talking about the worst storm of all time. The ETA had something like 4" of QPF for central PA. The national news added to it, talking about the new storm of the century.

 

My next door neighbor said the Port Matilda VFD gathered a fleet  of snowmobiles because there were fears roads would be closed for several days. He told me  it ended up being more or less an average snowstorm here, hardly any road issues.

 

So, 9" when you are expecting 2-3' and 50+ mph winds? Or, in the Susquehanna Valley's case, .5-3" when you are expecting 2'?

 

That was the Titanic of forecast ****-ups. This is a drunk fisherman flipping over his bass boat after running into a rock in the Susquehanna.

Yeah, i remember this pretty good. we squeeked out 5". but was expecting the worst. Our Fire Department did the same thing, we rounded up 4 wheelers and 1 snowmobile. Had all of our Weather Emergency plans in place as far as response and staffing etc. The way everyone was talking up the storm, we really did spend hours and hours of preperation. A couple days later i told them it was only a test, so they were prepared when the real "big one" came!

Even for my own house, Where i lived at the time (just around the corner from where DJR lives now)  we lost power if someone farted wrong, so we prepared for long duration power outage. It was also on a dead end road which was one of the last plowed (4 days after 96 storm) so i made sure i had enough beer i mean food/supplies.......hell i was expecting a couple days off work. it ended up just an average storm.

[Santa Clause]

Dang looked up 93 stuff unreal. Figures I was too young to remember it lol. I think 96 only dropped 10 inches up this way. I remember 2003..I .measured 14 in that one, prbly our biggest in last 19 years

[Santa Clause]

Lol I just looked at Pittsburgh area I guess they had 30 in 1994...very interesting.,Never thought of them as a big storm area.

[Santa Clause]

Does anyone have accurate snowfall totals for 93 and 96? What I am looking at has total for 93 at williamsport at 15.9. If thats true, I should never ever complain over a snowstorm again, because even the biggest are under 2 feet up here.

[Itstrainingtime]

Oh, no doubt. Also, I know this crowd. I've been around this general group for 13 years. The freakouts would have been profound if that happened today. For example I doubt wmsptwx would be all "lol guys at least I got 9" really I'm

fine with that" if he was expecting whiteouts and snow in feet. We all would have been bummed. Heh, the York/Adams/Harrisburg/Lancaster crew really would have freaked. I know every now and then someone asks "what if March 2001 happened today" and someone will always say

"NEVER mention that bust again" lol.

The NEWX usenet group and the Weather Channel's board was wild stuff. I am not sure but

I think that was the genesis of the fight that caused DT to wish death on some dude's baby.

Yeah, lol, that's another one. Was that the one where eastern Lancaster County had ripping snow and western Lancaster County had blue skies?

Yes...I woke up that morning expecting a foot of snow...instead was greeted by blue skies overhead and an ominous bank of clouds to my east. As one traveled east on Rt. 30 they ran into snow between Lancaster and Paradise, and by the time they got to Coatesville there was like 8".

[Santa Clause]

I was 11, and remember we were supposed to get 18 +, but for some reason I was really apathetic. In spite of looking like a redneck it was right after Dale Earnhardt died, and being 11 and him being my fav person in sports I was a bit off for a little while.