Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 hopes are def not up, in fact expecting 0z to be same or a hair south. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Why? I feel this close in the models will hold or creep further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Compromise...Gfs and euro will meet in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have a rough map drawn with my take on amounts with this thing, but nobody's seeing it until I see what 0z models do up through the Euro haha. This storm has been frustrating to forecast..even though the snow threat for southern Penn seems to be zeroed in fairly well at the moment, there remains some major differences on what it does in eastern Penn and beyond. I'd keep an open mind with the further north GFS/GEFS/SREF and not just toss it to opt for the non-American guidance (specifically the Euro/GGEM/UKMET camp). The difference between the 12z GGEM ensembles and the 12z/18z GEFS is vast. 12z GGEM has only .25-.50" running the southern tier counties and .25-.50" up in Boston while the GEFS by comparison has much higher amounts in PA and over 2 inches of QPF in Boston. I personally don't think a trajectory that culminates in hitting SNE is all that impossible. CPC derived NAO values are negative but not all that negative. I would tend to put more weight on the solutions that just go straight out or even ESE off the coast if we had a very strong NAO (like a -2 or -3) but we have just a modest one so I think there is some play room there. Consensus between both camps remains the best option. NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I feel this close in the models will hold or creep further north As much as I don't want to agree w/ wmsptwx, I think he is right as we often see a north trend stop inside of 24 hrs and a slight correction south sometimes happens. The true weenie in me wants this to be completely wrong, and for another tick north to give many of us that reside in the donut hole to get filled in...even if it is basically in 1 storm. I'g guess the 0z's to tick back south, but to still deliver us a moderate to low end warning event in the LSV. Another tick north and hey...I might get another weekend on my sled before putting it to bed for the summer. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Exactly. These trends usually hold or tick back to the south at the last minute. Euro Gfs compromise is way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 As much as I don't want to agree w/ wmsptwx, I think he is right as we often see a north trend stop inside of 24 hrs and a slight correction south sometimes happens. The true weenie in me wants this to be completely wrong, and for another tick north to give many of us that reside in the donut hole to get filled in...even if it is basically in 1 storm. I'g guess the 0z's to tick back south, but to still deliver us a moderate to low end warning event in the LSV. Another tick north and hey...I might get another weekend on my sled before putting it to bed for the summer. Nut Regardless what happens in the backyard I foresee Blue Knob and/or Seven Springs in my future this week as they already have about as good of conditions as you generally get on PA slopes the first week of March and they'll probably manage 10"+ out of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well fellas we are either going to praise the ncep models or curse here soon. Inside of 48 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 expanded the watch-- PAZ027-028-056-057-059-051215- /O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0005.130305T2300Z-130306T2300Z/ MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...NEWPORT... HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON 903 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE. STRONG EAST WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. * WINDS...EAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 but the snow map is backed off again? :confused: maybe updating so it reverted to an old image? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/StormTotalSnow.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 but the snow map is backed off again? :confused: maybe updating so it reverted to an old image? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/StormTotalSnow.png The time stamp says wed. Something is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 but the snow map is backed off again? :confused: maybe updating so it reverted to an old image? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/StormTotalSnow.png Yeah no model looks like that especially out in the laurel highlands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well this make no sense: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hearing that the NAM is nearly identical to 18z. Anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hearing that the NAM is nearly identical to 18z. Anyone confirm? Looks close maybe more qpf. I will post the map after 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Those maps are garbadge They change more frequently than tires at Taledega Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ma forum indicates they are colder and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nam is crushing the southern tier counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hearing that the NAM is nearly identical to 18z. Anyone confirm? Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow, I know it's the NAM but darn Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster, Chester counties get walloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yep NAM held at about same foolish to say it went any certain way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A little more improvement for the hometown it seems with the SREF/NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow, I know it's the NAM but darn Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster, Chester counties get walloped. And hopefully far southwestern Cumberland county does as well :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Psu dont like this edge stuff....all we needed is for this thing to turn the dang corner and head NE...but it scoots ene and takes precip with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nam pummles us. Someone could get 20 inches along the border. Banding appears to be sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Psu dont like this edge stuff....all we needed is for this thing to turn the dang corner and head NE...but it scoots ene and takes precip with it I hate being on the edge too, we lose a lot more often in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 CTP update for watch expansion: LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENDED WATCH NORTH INTO MIFFLIN...JUNIATA...PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES LATEST GEFS AND SREF RUNS. STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTEND OF SNOW BANDS WITH UPCOMING SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS IN THIS AREA TO WARRANT A NORTHWARD EXTENSION IN THE WATCH. THIS PUTS CENTRE COUNTY AND THE STATE COLLEGE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AREA OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH...BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL LOCALLY. GEFS U-WIND ANOMALIES -3 TO -4 OVER AREA AND STRONGER TO SE. VERY IMPRESSIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nam pummles us. Someone could get 20 inches along the border. Banding appears to be sick. I'm starting to get that feeling were in the right place for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What's the nam say for MDT, anyone know? On the iPad, hard to tell on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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