IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 you don't KNOW that the nam isn't overdone. lol "just stop" you are insufferable. To dummy it down for you, all you have to do is look at the simulated radars to see that the QPF outputs make perfect sense. Not to mention all the dynamics in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Actually coming in a bit more amped. I said no major changes, but I do agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 36, heights are really rising along the coast. Surface low hanging back in eastern KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To dummy it down for you, all you have to do is look at the simulated radars to see that the QPF outputs make perfect sense. Not to mention all the dynamics in play. you still don't KNOW that the nam forecast is not overdone. you are supporting your belief. it does not make it fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Through hr 39 it's way amped and heights are really rising along the coast. Interaction already beginning with the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just stop, look at the simulated radars, the NAM is not overdone and it has good model support. Again, it printed 5" or so of liquid precip for most of north/central NJ at one point prior to the 2/8 blizzard and one of its known biases is for being too wet. Hump it all you want but I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 42 preciep up to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 42 preciep up to NYC HR 42 means 1PM Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS is going to come in way tucked in. Hr 48 sub 998 low sitting over the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 HR 42 means 1PM Wednesday? 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 993 at hr 51. We really need a dynamic bomb like the nam to have this work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Exactly. One always has to be very careful with NAM QPF output. This used to always be an issue with the Eta as well. Cutting totals in half has been a good rule of thumb. If the 12z output is correct, I'd say that this is a 6-12 in. type event. Classic MECS. Again, it printed 5" or so of liquid precip for most of north/central NJ at one point prior to the 2/8 blizzard and one of its known biases is for being too wet. Hump it all you want but I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hour 48 moderate precip beginning. The surface is slightly warmer than the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Exactly. One always has to be very careful with NAM QPF output. This used to always be an issue with the Eta as well. Cutting totals in half has been a good rule of thumb. If the 12z output is correct, I'd say that this is a 6-12 in. type event. Classic MECS. The NAM in this case is only slightly higher than all of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Moderate to heavy precip over NYC at hour 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 57 big hit coming. Surface crashing and heavy preciep in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 The mid/upper level centers are stacked on each other by 45 hr. If you're confident about this working out, you're being very closed minded. This entire thing can go wrong in 50 different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 57 sub 992 low about 50-75 miles SE of ACY. Everyone into moderate precip. Surface freezing line is a hair NW of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Getting crushed at hr 60 heavy snow and ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 CCB over NYC at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The mid/upper level centers are stacked on each other by 45 hr. If you're confident about this working out, you're being very closed minded. This entire thing can go wrong in 50 different ways. I know. Sucks that it could go wrong, but a MECS is certainly plausible at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NYC getting crushed at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 60 big hit NW of the city. Surface freezing line hanging just NW of the city. It won't be as nice as the NAM but it was still a very good hit for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 57 big hit coming. Surface crashing and heavy preciep in area and thats @ 4am so thats 1-2 in per hour stuff that stix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NYC getting crushed at hour 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow. CCB FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 63 is beautiful. Man would be nice. Still a lot of time ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 66-69 snow is moving out. Snow maps show 4-8" NW of the city so far through hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Continues at hour 66. This run is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 City is 1.00+ this run .75 gets all the way back to Scranton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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