MikeS Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS is pretty close, just not as cold as NAM. C'mon dude, the only models not currently showing a big hit are Euro op and the GGEM. I'm hearing that even the Euro ensemble mean is a big hit. My guess is that the Euro control run will be a massive hit as well. The 18z GFS is up soon. I'm not saying the Upton is correct but they are just being conservative which is not necessarily incorrect at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is this a 12 hour event,, 18 hour event or a 24hr+ event? Also, When would the "Peak of the storm"" be ? Precip moves in around hr 48-51 and ends around hr 72-75. Verbatim it's a 24hr + event. Heaviest snows from hours 54-69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Two blizzard warnings in one winter?Has that ever happened. I am not saying it will happen this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nam makes no sense, low is actually further se than 12 z yet this mega band of precip forms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nam makes no sense, low is actually further se than 12 z yet this mega band of precip forms? Check out the 18z at 60 hrs vs 12z at 66. On the 18z, at 500mb, note the vortmax over Michigan, and how its being phased into the developing vortex just off the Va coast. This allows the qpf to be significantly nw of the 12z run.. In addition, take a look at 18z at hr 54. note now much farther nw the surface low is.. So its not true that the low is farther south east at 18z. Its not a matter of it not being as far north; its a matter of it being substantially more tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Two blizzard warnings in one winter?Has that ever happened. I am not saying it will happen this time. 2010-2011 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You're probably only looking at the vort correct? The surface low actually makes it all the way up to the SE Jersey coast on the 18z NAM. You're probably only looking at the vort correct? The surface low actually makes it all the way up to the SE Jersey coast on the 18z NAM. never mind looking at an old image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z is further north and as John said there are much better dynamics. This is an amazing run, hopefully the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 15z Snow Plumes for KISP and KLGA KISP: KLGA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There current forecast has virtually no model support. It's not sensible to give out such false information to the public. 3-6" of snow would have been a good conservative foreast right now. There is no point in freaking everybody out just because of the NAM. The trend is towards a hit, but even if it does hit temps are still an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nam makes no sense, low is actually further se than 12 z yet this mega band of precip forms? yes i had an old image coming up. had to refresh cp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The analogs from last week from the CPC kept on showing 3/6/2001. Maybe it was on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Actually when you consider that the forecast is only through 48 hours it's not a bad snow forecast. I just worry that the public will take this to be a "Total Storm Forecast" Here is Mt. Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is no point in freaking everybody out just because of the NAM. The trend is towards a hit, but even if it does hit temps are still an issue. Just the NAM? What about the GFS/GEFS/Euro Ensembles/JMA and SREF??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Two blizzard warnings in one winter?Has that ever happened. I am not saying it will happen this time. I believe 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is no point in freaking everybody out just because of the NAM. The trend is towards a hit, but even if it does hit temps are still an issue. but alot falls at night, so that helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I believe 2010? Yup. 12/26/10 and 1/27/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Actually when you consider that the forecast is only through 48 hours it's not a bad snow forecast. I just worry that the public will take this to be a "Total Storm Forecast" Here is Mt. Holly That is thru Thursday AM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just the NAM? What about the GFS/GEFS/Euro Ensembles/JMA and SREF??? I would follow the trend more than what the NAM is printing out which is likely overdone. Tonight hopefully we hold onto it and then we can hoist watches etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 '09-'10 had 2 blizzards in one week. 2/6 and 2/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam is a paste bomb, even when we cut its over amping precip in half, its still 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There current forecast has virtually no model support. It's not sensible to give out such false information to the public. 3-6" of snow would have been a good conservative foreast right now. I agree but Im sure they will be changing by tonight if this continues. However not gonna look good if they go from an inch to a foot 8 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I would follow the trend more than what the NAM is printing out which is likely overdone. Tonight hopefully we hold onto it and then we can hoist watches etc. Just stop, look at the simulated radars, the NAM is not overdone and it has good model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hate when people just assume that the NAM has too much precip because it's the NAM. It has the most precip because it puts the heaviest precip over our area. It also has the support of several GEFS and SREF members and to an extent the Euro ensemble and GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I agree but Im sure they will be changing by tonight if this continues. However not gonna look good if they go from an inch to a foot 8 hours later. generally speaking this event is still over 48 hours out so its too early for snowfall totals anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 A little more ridging ahead of the vort through 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z GFS 1.25 inch QPF 12Z Euro Ensembles 1 inch QPF 15z SREF 1.50 inches QPF 18z NAM 2 inches QPF ( prob roided ) Being conservative If 1 inch is being shown a few more times overnite even if they feel half that was rain , You still prob get Winter Storm Watches within the next 24 hours . But not sooner MT Holly and Upton are gona wana see some consistency in terms of these outputs before they sound any alarm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm still not biting on this solution just yet. But it's getting close to that point. I think the chances are just about equal that we still could get a GGEM type solution, where the precipitation is there but the dynamics aren't...resulting in light rain or non accumulating mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z GFS, no major changes through hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z GFS, no major changes through hr 30. Actually coming in a bit more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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