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Significant Ocean Storm March 5-7 2013 Discussion Part II


earthlight

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GFS is pretty close, just not as cold as NAM. 

 

 

C'mon dude, the only models not currently showing a big hit are Euro op and the GGEM. I'm hearing that even the Euro ensemble mean is a big hit. My guess is that the Euro control run will be a massive hit as well. The 18z GFS is up soon.

 

I'm not saying the Upton is correct but they are just being conservative which is not necessarily incorrect at this point in time. 

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nam makes no sense, low is actually further se than 12 z yet this mega band of precip forms?

 

Check out the 18z at 60 hrs vs 12z at 66.  On the 18z, at 500mb,  note the vortmax over Michigan, and how its being phased into the developing vortex just off the Va coast.  This allows the qpf to be significantly nw of the 12z run.. In addition, take a look at 18z at hr 54.  note now much farther nw the surface low is.. So its not true that the low is farther south east at 18z.  Its not a matter of it not being as far north; its a matter of it being substantially more tucked in.  

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You're probably only looking at the vort correct? The surface low actually makes it all the way up to the SE Jersey coast on the 18z NAM.

 

You're probably only looking at the vort correct? The surface low actually makes it all the way up to the SE Jersey coast on the 18z NAM.

never mind looking at an old image

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There current forecast has virtually no model support. It's not sensible to give out such false information to the public. 3-6" of snow would have been a good conservative foreast right now.

There is no point in freaking everybody out just because of the NAM. The trend is towards a hit, but even if it does hit temps are still an issue.

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There current forecast has virtually no model support. It's not sensible to give out such false information to the public. 3-6" of snow would have been a good conservative foreast right now.

 

 

I agree but Im sure they will be changing by tonight if this continues. However not gonna look good if they go from an inch to a foot 8 hours later.

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12z GFS 1.25 inch QPF

12Z Euro Ensembles 1 inch QPF

15z SREF 1.50 inches QPF

18z NAM 2 inches QPF ( prob roided )

Being conservative If 1 inch is being shown a few more times overnite even if they feel half that was rain , You still prob get Winter Storm Watches within the next 24 hours . But not sooner

MT Holly and Upton are gona wana see some consistency in terms of these outputs before they sound any alarm .

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I'm still not biting on this solution just yet. But it's getting close to that point.

I think the chances are just about equal that we still could get a GGEM type solution, where the precipitation is there but the dynamics aren't...resulting in light rain or non accumulating mixed precip.

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