SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Very nice run, getting under two days now, I wouldn't be surprised for a colder wetter system than shown now. The blocking pattern will keep the north and west trend in control so I don't expect any massive shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I would be more concerned about a too tucked in/W track right now with dryslot concerns than surpression at this point. Just hope the block is strong enough to keep the northward future adjustments somewhat limited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Upton's first hack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 guess Upton didnt see the nam or they're not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Based on that expect a beefed up NAM QPF wise in one of the next few suites Theres always one 2 days out ... Based on that expect a beefed up NAM QPF wise in one of the next few suites Theres always one 2 days out ... Hmmmm , that was kind of an easy call back on page 1 . 1.75 - 2 qpf is impressive , lets just hope the SREFS stay moist over the next 24 hrs - so too will the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Upton's first hack i dont think any models are showing that anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 guess Upton didnt see the nam or they're not buying it.[/quote They probably didnt include it, just playing the conservative role as of now. I still want to see the EURO jump In bed with the American Models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I wrote a couple days ago When U see Epic solutions 5-7 days before a storm alot of times the models lose it for a few days and come back to the original solution 48 hrs or so before the event. I am not shocked at what Nam spit out along with GFS, JMA ect because a couple Models Showed an all out Bomb beginning or middle of last week for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 CCB over NYC on the Hi-Res Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I would be more concerned about a too tucked in/W track right now with dryslot concerns than surpression at this point. Just hope the block is strong enough to keep the northward future adjustments somewhat limited... I would refer you to my prior post to you and reiterate again with the blocking setup it is not likely any more NW trending can occur: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39589-significant-ocean-storm-march-5-7-2013-discussion-part-ii/page-4#entry2180445 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Upton's first hack. LOL. Not much model agreement with that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 guess Upton didnt see the nam or they're not buying it. Well they just put it out. Honestly they couldn't have given much weight to anything but the Euro with a forecast like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Per Upton JUSt released forcast for Queens NY Wed night Blizzard Conditions likely .see below. They are catching on now! http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=102&map.y=203&site=OKX Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Windy, with a northeast wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Probably decent where the surface temp is below freezing, but glop everywhere it isn't. The grounds muddy and the march sunshine won't be helping at all. The heaviest of the snow looks like it falls at night, and the ground isn't too warm. Last night was well below freezing most areas. If it snows hard enough, it will accumulate and fast. The NAM is probably too amplified, since it usually has a few of these unbelievable runs before big storms. I take it West Milford is still waiting on the 7 feet of snow one of the NAM runs gave them prior to 2/8. There will likely be a crushing somewhere though given the dynamics at play here and very moist easterly flow coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No one is buying the NAM's solution verbatim and the other models are still much more conservative in terms of precip but they are certainly slowly trending in the right direction. I would imagine if the trends continue, tonight's update will look drastically different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 51 is odd. Snowing in New Jersey, but Raining in CT/Long island. NYC is right on the dividing line. But by Hour 54 almost everybody is snow as temps crash from west to east. Only places that don't change over is near Montauk and SE SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No one is buying the NAM's solution verbatim and the other models are still much more conservative in terms of precip but they are certainly slowly trending in the right direction. I would imagine if the trends continue, tonight's update will look drastically different. Hate be be a Weenie but the GFS is more than halfway there, the weenie JMA is there, and plenty of SREF members are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 CCB over NYC on the Hi-Res Nam. JMA/SREF and now NAM all show this band setting up over CNJ into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No one is buying the NAM's solution verbatim and the other models are still much more conservative in terms of precip but they are certainly slowly trending in the right direction. I would imagine if the trends continue, tonight's update will look drastically different. GFS is pretty close, just not as cold as NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I honestly think temps will crash and a changeover to snow will be faster than forecast as has been the case with pure coastal systems that bomb out. Both late Oct and early November storms have "surprised us" for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No one is buying the NAM's solution verbatim and the other models are still much more conservative in terms of precip but they are certainly slowly trending in the right direction. I would imagine if the trends continue, tonight's update will look drastically different. C'mon dude, the only models not currently showing a big hit are Euro op and the GGEM. I'm hearing that even the Euro ensemble mean is a big hit. My guess is that the Euro control run will be a massive hit as well. The 18z GFS is up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nam makes no sense, low is actually further se than 12 z yet this mega band of precip forms? EDIT- never mind i was looking at an old image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Per Upton JUSt released forcast for Queens NY Wed night Blizzard Conditions likely .see below. They are catching on now! http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=102&map.y=203&site=OKX Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Windy, with a northeast wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Don't see the word blizzard anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is this a 12 hour event,, 18 hour event or a 24hr+ event? Also, When would the "Peak of the storm"" be ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nam makes no sense, low is actually further se than 12 z yet this mega band of precip forms? Look at the Hi-Res version. It makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 nam makes no sense, low is actually further se than 12 z yet this mega band of precip forms? jet structure, dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nam makes no sense, low is actually further se than 12 z yet this mega band of precip forms? You're probably only looking at the vort correct? The surface low actually makes it all the way up to the SE Jersey coast on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Per Upton JUSt released forcast for Queens NY Wed night Blizzard Conditions likely .see below. They are catching on now! http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=102&map.y=203&site=OKX Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Windy, with a northeast wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. um, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Don't see the word blizzard anywhere. The conditions are implying a Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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