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Significant Ocean Storm March 5-7 2013 Discussion Part II


earthlight

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Based on that expect a beefed up NAM QPF wise in one of the next few suites

Theres always one 2 days out ...

 

Based on that expect a beefed up NAM QPF wise in one of the next few suites

Theres always one 2 days out ...

Hmmmm , that was kind of an easy call back on page 1 .  1.75 - 2 qpf is impressive , lets just hope the SREFS stay moist over the next 24 hrs - so too will the NAM

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I wrote a couple days ago When U see Epic solutions 5-7 days before a storm alot of times the models lose it for a few days and come back to the original solution 48 hrs or so before the event. I am not shocked at what Nam spit out along with GFS, JMA ect because a couple Models Showed an all out Bomb beginning or middle of last week for this storm.

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I would be more concerned about a too tucked in/W track right now with dryslot concerns than surpression at this point. Just hope the block is strong enough to keep the northward future adjustments somewhat limited...

I would refer you to my prior post to you and reiterate again with the blocking setup it is not likely any more NW trending can occur:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39589-significant-ocean-storm-march-5-7-2013-discussion-part-ii/page-4#entry2180445

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Per Upton JUSt released forcast for Queens NY Wed night Blizzard Conditions likely .see below. They are catching on now!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=102&map.y=203&site=OKX

 

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Windy, with a northeast wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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Probably decent where the surface temp is below freezing, but glop everywhere it isn't. The grounds muddy and the march sunshine won't be helping at all.

The heaviest of the snow looks like it falls at night, and the ground isn't too warm. Last night was well below freezing most areas. If it snows hard enough, it will accumulate and fast.

 

The NAM is probably too amplified, since it usually has a few of these unbelievable runs before big storms. I take it West Milford is still waiting on the 7 feet of snow one of the NAM runs gave them prior to 2/8. :lol:

 

There will likely be a crushing somewhere though given the dynamics at play here and very moist easterly flow coming in.

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No one is buying the NAM's solution verbatim and the other models are still much more conservative in terms of precip but they are certainly slowly trending in the right direction. I would imagine if the trends continue, tonight's update will look drastically different.

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No one is buying the NAM's solution verbatim and the other models are still much more conservative in terms of precip but they are certainly slowly trending in the right direction. I would imagine if the trends continue, tonight's update will look drastically different.

Hate be be a Weenie but the GFS is more than halfway there, the weenie JMA is there, and plenty of SREF members are there. 

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No one is buying the NAM's solution verbatim and the other models are still much more conservative in terms of precip but they are certainly slowly trending in the right direction. I would imagine if the trends continue, tonight's update will look drastically different.

GFS is pretty close, just not as cold as NAM. 

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No one is buying the NAM's solution verbatim and the other models are still much more conservative in terms of precip but they are certainly slowly trending in the right direction. I would imagine if the trends continue, tonight's update will look drastically different.

C'mon dude, the only models not currently showing a big hit are Euro op and the GGEM. I'm hearing that even the Euro ensemble mean is a big hit. My guess is that the Euro control run will be a massive hit as well. The 18z GFS is up soon.

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Per Upton JUSt released forcast for Queens NY Wed night Blizzard Conditions likely .see below. They are catching on now!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=102&map.y=203&site=OKX

 

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Windy, with a northeast wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

Don't see the word blizzard anywhere. 

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Per Upton JUSt released forcast for Queens NY Wed night Blizzard Conditions likely .see below. They are catching on now!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=102&map.y=203&site=OKX

 

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Windy, with a northeast wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

um, no.

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