IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 FWIW 1.5"+ line makes it all the way up into Sussex County. The city is in the solid 1.75-2.00" area. The simulated radars show precip extending some 150 miles or more north and west of the city with 30+dbz echos for everyone and pockets of very heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Most of the precip is over by then. Hours 69-75 is drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Watch sounds like its upcoming. If this happened as depicted there could be blizzard warnings again for C. NJ on north. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's the better version of March 6, 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 at HR 63, 850's are only at -1 where I am, even though with heavy precip, that can easily be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Most of the precip is over by then. Hours 69-75 is drizzle. thats what im trying to say over and over and people don't seem to grasp it lol. west of central suffolk, this is a paste job no ifs ands or buts. It does eventually changeover to drizzle but who cares at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What kind of ratios are we looking at with this setup? Based on the comments Im sensing 6:1 - 8:1 ish, but locally more while the CCB is pounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 41 degree water temps 30 miles offshore and even colder near shore. We will be fine and if anything from past events will do better then urban NYC. April 96 event!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 As I said several days ago, BL issues is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes, for now. But the significant NW shift keeps occuring with every cycle of model runs. When does it stop? The blocking is such that it won't trend much further north if at all. This run is probably too amped up as the NAM can sometimes get, but it echoes the general trend for today-toward a more amplified and wetter outcome for us. Verbatim almost everyone would be snow with the very strong lift and dynamics that would occur, and much of it at night and with a NNE wind. Eastern LI and eastern New England would probably be worse off under such an outcome because the warming at 850 and below gets quite severe there, jackpot would likely be N/C NJ. But it would be a crushing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'll never forget Apr 96 I was at Opening Day and the driving Snow! 41 degree water temps 30 miles offshore and even colder near shore. We will be fine and if anything from past events will do better then urban NYC. April 96 event!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 4K NAM SIM at HR 48.. the entire metro area gets crushed and heavy precip continues to HR 60+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ok, now the NW/N trend can stop.... This NAM run is the only one we have showing this kind of epicness for us. The NW trend can stop now on the NAM but not so for the rest of the models out there. Plenty more changes still needed on the rest of the models before we can lock anything like this in. Ease your worries by leaning back on the blocking set-up that will be in place. It can only get so for N or NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Most of the precip is over by then. Hours 69-75 is drizzle. I was being facetious with that, lol. That's a great look and outcome for just about everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 As I said several days ago, BL issues is possible. That CCB pretty much took care of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just to calm some nerves for the Long Island folks, the high res NAM precip type shows snow as the primary precip extending some 50 miles east out onto long Island. I wouldn't be worried unless I lived out towards Suffolk County. Temps are below freezing at all levels except the surface and it's not far from being below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 who's got a QPF map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 whoever called me out at hr 42 and deleted their post thank u... Yes Ace called U out like U were Crazy but Either your a Genius or had early access to Nam run cause know-one thought it would blow up like U mentioned. Also Disregard what I wrote above about not taking Nam seriously before 36 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM snowfall output map per Philly thread, 12"-18" the majority of N/C NJ, S NYState, SW CT away from immeditate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hour 60 the entire area is still getting crushed. I can only keep this up for a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This gives me some hope, thank god. But it's pretty close to being a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Crushed It's a NW burbs special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No IMBY questions, but if QPF is as high as is progged and NYC Western LI srtay cold, can the insane snows that Central Long Island had on 2/8 find it's way to NYC/Western LI? Again no IMBY here, but whjat's the maximum potential in a theoretical sense if everyuthing goes "right" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What kind of ratios are we looking at with this setup? Based on the comments Im sensing 6:1 - 8:1 ish, but locally more while the CCB is pounding? Probably decent where the surface temp is below freezing, but glop everywhere it isn't. The grounds muddy and the march sunshine won't be helping at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's a NW burbs special. Over 15 inches there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 4km NAM is just utterly amazing for me even in Philly...WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12+ for NYC metro. Not unexpected based on that depiction. I am tempering my expectations for now, but the latest trends are getting me very excited. And its a night-time event which makes it so much better for accumulating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No IMBY questions, but if QPF is as high as is progged and NYC Western LI srtay cold, can the insane snows that Central Long Island had on 2/8 find it's way to NYC/Western LI? Again no IMBY here, but whjat's the maximum potential in a theoretical sense if everyuthing goes "right" ? IMHO, NAM is the best scenario for us considering the set-up. The total QPF for the storm through 81 hours is below. Some of it could be rain but if it is not and is all snow (possible considering NAM's tendency to be too warm during portions of these kinds of storms), I'd say this is the most snow (QPF x 10 of course) we would see in this set-up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Per the wunderground NAM precip type maps, the area briefly starts as rain, but then quickly turns to a wallop of snow until hour 72. At that point everybody warms up and finishes off as drizzle/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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