Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0.75 line looks to make it just west of NYC. Kinda meh overall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 btw...when the GFS changed its mind, the ensembles didn't give such an idea they were going to head that way. For several runs in a row there were no misses for our area. While the GEFS ended up trending slightly drier, to my recollection they remained mostly hits and relatively wet through 00z last night (just checked). There wasn't any indication precip would be cut by more than half by 06z and 12z today. Except that qpf blob over the gulfstream. Anyway my point is that if the GFS is going to be more amped up again, looking at the ensembles may not give us any additional clue to what to expect for the 00z or 06z gfs runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Guess I'll be up to 1AM tonight to see the EURO, just hoping for NYC and surroundings a colder and wetter solution prevails with 1 inch QPF and a solid 10 inches. Not expecting a blizzard warning or two feet of snow. As long as it's plowable, deep and pretty I'll be happy, i like long duration events too, so as long as it's a 24- 36 hour frozen (mainly snow) event I'm happy. Just amazing with the unceratinty with less than 15-24 hours before the onset of the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For NYC GEFS .75 Sref. 1.25 Euro .75 total RGEM .75 Nam 2 . Trying to figure out how much is rain vs snow and which QPF to use if you had to Craft a private forecast for the next 24 hours must b fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For NYC GEFS .75 Sref. 1.25 Euro .75 total RGEM .75 Nam 2 . Trying to figure out how much is rain vs snow and which QPF to use if you had to Craft a private forecast for the next 24 hours must b fun. Rgem is close to 25mm through hour 54. 18z Rgem goes to hour 54. So it's 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For NYC GEFS .75 Sref. 1.25 Euro .75 total RGEM .75 Nam 2 . Trying to figure out how much is rain vs snow and which QPF to use if you had to Craft a private forecast for the next 24 hours must b fun. not to split hairs, and it is probably irrelevant but the rgem is about 20-22mm for NYC (0.8) and it is assumed more would fall past that with the inverted trough. Just saying. As for what percentage is frozen, all you can really say is that most guidance has the majority frozen, the only question is timing, and precip rate to determine amounts. So this time (as I'm sure you already have deduced) it's not just 0.75=7.5 in of snow. edit: nvm ag3 beat me to the bunch...through 54 rgem is about 1in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Rgem is close to 25mm through hour 54. 18z Rgem goes to hour 54. So it's 1". Total snow maps for the Rgem are 15-20mm through hour 54 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For NYC GEFS .75 Sref. 1.25 Euro .75 total RGEM .75 Nam 2 . Trying to figure out how much is rain vs snow and which QPF to use if you had to Craft a private forecast for the next 24 hours must b fun. Jeeze - good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For NYC GEFS .75 Sref. 1.25 Euro .75 total RGEM .75 Nam 2 . Trying to figure out how much is rain vs snow and which QPF to use if you had to Craft a private forecast for the next 24 hours must b fun. Not only that but how much of that falling snow will melt on contact vs actually accumulate!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Rgem is close to 25mm through hour 54. 18z Rgem goes to hour 54. So it's 1". That's right earthlight did post that before. I like an inch of liquid and half of it snow for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's right earthlight did post that before. I like an inch of liquid and half of it snow for the city. ag3 posted above but its 15-20mm snow. IE most of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39603-significant-ocean-storm-march-6-8-2013-discussion-part-iii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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