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Significant Ocean Storm March 5-7 2013 Discussion Part II


earthlight

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Craig Allen

"I'll just say this for now- in 2 days this has 'de-volved' into one of the hardest winter forecasts in years. There is very high potential for a complete bust in at least 50% of the area in terms of rain vs snow and amounts.

The easiest part of the forecast is the wind and tidal flooding; that's pretty much a certainty and is unfortunately able to do a lot more damage than worrying about 0 to 20 inches of snow.

Mark my words, location of heavier snow vs wind driven rain will change before it starts tomorrow. "

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So the Nam's not completely crazy? How often are we less than a day away from a storm and have very little idea on what we're supposed to get?

 

Also it's hard to imagine it snowing with it being 50F and sunny today, but we've seen days with temps in the 60s and even 70s with it snowing a day or two later. 

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So the Nam's not completely crazy? How often are we less than a day away from a storm and have very little idea on what we're supposed to get?

 

Also it's hard to imagine it snowing with it being 50F and sunny today, but we've seen days with temps in the 60s and even 70s with it snowing a day or two later. 

Happens many times in March

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So the Nam's not completely crazy? How often are we less than a day away from a storm and have very little idea on what we're supposed to get?

 

Also it's hard to imagine it snowing with it being 50F and sunny today, but we've seen days with temps in the 60s and even 70s with it snowing a day or two later. 

One of our last big winter storms in March (March 16, 2007) had temps as high as 80 around here two days before the storm.  A lot of times that's how it is with these March storms.

 

This is one of the biggest spreads I've ever seen on the models this close to the storm.  The NAM is probably overdone as it usually is, but I'm not putting much trust in the GFS either.  A blend of the two, about 3-6'', seems reasonable.

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One of our last big winter storms in March (March 16, 2007) had temps as high as 80 around here two days before the storm.  A lot of times that's how it is with these March storms.

 

That's the storm I was thinking of, I remember the super warmth and that it was like a sleet/snow mess a couple days after. 

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It happened several years ago.One day it was in the 70s and then the next day we had a couple of inches of snow.

In 2007 we hit 79 on March 14th and 2 days later was the infamous 6" sleet fest

 

We also had three straight mornings below 15 and a high of 23 5 or 6 days before hitting 79. Crazy month with a low of 12 and a high of 80.

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In 2007 we hit 79 on March 14th and 2 days later was the infamous 6" sleet fest

 

We also had three straight mornings below 15 and a high of 23 just days before hitting 79. Crazy month with a low of 12 and a high of 80.

 

April 2000 is probably the best example, it was in the 80s all the way into Upstate NY Sat aftn and Sunday morning was snowing, only had an inch or two down here but Albany had 15 and was 86 degrees the afternoon prior I think.

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One of our last big winter storms in March (March 16, 2007) had temps as high as 80 around here two days before the storm. A lot of times that's how it is with these March storms.

What about 3-1-09? That was more recent but... That storm screwed much of NNJ. We did well in Southern Westchester with 10". 3-16-07 was a sleet event for much of NYC metro but I was in Middlebury VT at college, and we had about 13"...February and March 2007 was one of the greatest stretches of winter in my life living in NNE. Valentine's Day then St. Patty's Day and finally 5" on Tax Day.

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Gotta think using the NAM/RGEM/SREFs at this stage would be a consideration, there's convective processes going in a monster shortwave like this that mesoscale models should theoritically have a good handle on. That displaced qpf max the GfS has looks pretty strange. I guess we'll know everything tomorrow morning. If the low is tucked in close to the Delaware/Jersey coastal waters, the NAM may have the right idea.

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I would like to see the SUNY MM5 tonight as well, picked up little features very well on 2/8. 

 

The SPC WRF as well, it nailed that event, here is its 36 hour frame from the 12Z run today, it tends to be somewhat lousier beyond 18-24 hours, it overall is close to a split between the 12Z NAM and GFS at 36, drier than the NAM but not nearly as suppressed as the GFS was.

 

refd_1000m_f36.gif

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For a different day.

Most of the euros snow is Thursday night into Friday morning.

I was just responding...they are part of the same storm no one is going to say this is storm 1 and that is storm 2...there is no break in precip and will be viewed as one storm. If we get 6 in but it falls thursday night, then we still got 6inches 

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Just based upon the history of the EURO, my bet is the EURO - this will be a very minor event, snow-wise for the NYC Metro Area. Sometimes it just isn't our winter.

I wont necessarily be jumping on the Euro for a couple of reasons. First, the resolution , while higher res is not as good as the Nam and especially the 4km Nam. Yes it has a wet bias, but I still think, synotpically it is handling things better than the Euro. There is a lot of energy being shunted together due to this block and I don't think the Euro is handling this properly as I think the s/w's wont be able to just bump each other (poor language) and then go their seperate ways, rather, they will have to interact to a further extent; take for example the double qpf maximums, normally I would agree this winter, but with the blocking so strong, I believe the phase would likely yield more precip over the area. Secondly, the Euro the past three weeks has really not handled storms that well inside of 72 hours. Third- the HiRes models have been pretty consistent in a good lashing for the area.
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