jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And here is total precip as snow. Also solid: Wow, that's a nice jump NW and plenty of snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 There is more qpf on this run than the 12z run. .75 + on this run. .http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_060_precip_p48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow, that's a nice jump NW and plenty of snow as well. ok..sorry..don't know the metric system..what is that in actual inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 There is more qpf on this run than the 12z run. .75 + on this run. .http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_060_precip_p48.gif yes the gfs is arguably better just another jump NW and more organized with the precip shield and its back to being a solid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Craig Allen"I'll just say this for now- in 2 days this has 'de-volved' into one of the hardest winter forecasts in years. There is very high potential for a complete bust in at least 50% of the area in terms of rain vs snow and amounts.The easiest part of the forecast is the wind and tidal flooding; that's pretty much a certainty and is unfortunately able to do a lot more damage than worrying about 0 to 20 inches of snow.Mark my words, location of heavier snow vs wind driven rain will change before it starts tomorrow. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ok..sorry..don't know the metric system..what is that in actual inches? 20mm=.79 inches qpf 15mm=.59 inches qpf 10mm=.39 inches qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z RGEM tracks the surface low just east of ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yes the gfs is arguably better just another jump NW and more organized with the precip shield and its back to being a solid event. Now lets see if the GEFS moves it even more NW. - there should be a big change from 12z on the individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ok..sorry..don't know the metric system..what is that in actual inches? fun for the whole family...... http://www.metric-conversions.org/length/millimeters-to-inches.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So the Nam's not completely crazy? How often are we less than a day away from a storm and have very little idea on what we're supposed to get? Also it's hard to imagine it snowing with it being 50F and sunny today, but we've seen days with temps in the 60s and even 70s with it snowing a day or two later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ok..sorry..don't know the metric system..what is that in actual inches? I'd say that would equate to 0.5-0.75" liquid falling as snow across NYC/Long Island. Maybe a 4-6" kind of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'd say that would equate to 0.5-0.75" liquid falling as snow across NYC/Long Island. Maybe a 4-6" kind of event. seems to be in line with Euro..GFS seems like a outliner now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So the Nam's not completely crazy? How often are we less than a day away from a storm and have very little idea on what we're supposed to get? Also it's hard to imagine it snowing with it being 50F and sunny today, but we've seen days with temps in the 60s and even 70s with it snowing a day or two later. Happens many times in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Happens many times in March It happened several years ago.One day it was in the 70s and then the next day we had a couple of inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So the Nam's not completely crazy? How often are we less than a day away from a storm and have very little idea on what we're supposed to get? Also it's hard to imagine it snowing with it being 50F and sunny today, but we've seen days with temps in the 60s and even 70s with it snowing a day or two later. One of our last big winter storms in March (March 16, 2007) had temps as high as 80 around here two days before the storm. A lot of times that's how it is with these March storms. This is one of the biggest spreads I've ever seen on the models this close to the storm. The NAM is probably overdone as it usually is, but I'm not putting much trust in the GFS either. A blend of the two, about 3-6'', seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 One of our last big winter storms in March (March 16, 2007) had temps as high as 80 around here two days before the storm. A lot of times that's how it is with these March storms. That's the storm I was thinking of, I remember the super warmth and that it was like a sleet/snow mess a couple days after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It happened several years ago.One day it was in the 70s and then the next day we had a couple of inches of snow. In 2007 we hit 79 on March 14th and 2 days later was the infamous 6" sleet fest We also had three straight mornings below 15 and a high of 23 5 or 6 days before hitting 79. Crazy month with a low of 12 and a high of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 In 2007 we hit 79 on March 14th and 2 days later was the infamous 6" sleet fest We also had three straight mornings below 15 and a high of 23 just days before hitting 79. Crazy month with a low of 12 and a high of 80. April 2000 is probably the best example, it was in the 80s all the way into Upstate NY Sat aftn and Sunday morning was snowing, only had an inch or two down here but Albany had 15 and was 86 degrees the afternoon prior I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 One of our last big winter storms in March (March 16, 2007) had temps as high as 80 around here two days before the storm. A lot of times that's how it is with these March storms. What about 3-1-09? That was more recent but... That storm screwed much of NNJ. We did well in Southern Westchester with 10". 3-16-07 was a sleet event for much of NYC metro but I was in Middlebury VT at college, and we had about 13"...February and March 2007 was one of the greatest stretches of winter in my life living in NNE. Valentine's Day then St. Patty's Day and finally 5" on Tax Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Gotta think using the NAM/RGEM/SREFs at this stage would be a consideration, there's convective processes going in a monster shortwave like this that mesoscale models should theoritically have a good handle on. That displaced qpf max the GfS has looks pretty strange. I guess we'll know everything tomorrow morning. If the low is tucked in close to the Delaware/Jersey coastal waters, the NAM may have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I would like to see the SUNY MM5 tonight as well, picked up little features very well on 2/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I would like to see the SUNY MM5 tonight as well, picked up little features very well on 2/8. The SPC WRF as well, it nailed that event, here is its 36 hour frame from the 12Z run today, it tends to be somewhat lousier beyond 18-24 hours, it overall is close to a split between the 12Z NAM and GFS at 36, drier than the NAM but not nearly as suppressed as the GFS was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the radar channel 5 just showed looked pretty intense heading this way !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just based upon the history of the EURO, my bet is the EURO - this will be a very minor event, snow-wise for the NYC Metro Area. Sometimes it just isn't our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just based upon the history of the EURO, my bet is the EURO - this will be a very minor event, snow-wise for the NYC Metro Area. Sometimes it just isn't our winter. euro shows 6inches which is "significant" by definition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro shows 6inches which is "significant" by definition For a different day. Most of the euros snow is Thursday night into Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The all important map over the next 12 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For a different day. Most of the euros snow is Thursday night into Friday morning. I was just responding...they are part of the same storm no one is going to say this is storm 1 and that is storm 2...there is no break in precip and will be viewed as one storm. If we get 6 in but it falls thursday night, then we still got 6inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just based upon the history of the EURO, my bet is the EURO - this will be a very minor event, snow-wise for the NYC Metro Area. Sometimes it just isn't our winter.I wont necessarily be jumping on the Euro for a couple of reasons. First, the resolution , while higher res is not as good as the Nam and especially the 4km Nam. Yes it has a wet bias, but I still think, synotpically it is handling things better than the Euro. There is a lot of energy being shunted together due to this block and I don't think the Euro is handling this properly as I think the s/w's wont be able to just bump each other (poor language) and then go their seperate ways, rather, they will have to interact to a further extent; take for example the double qpf maximums, normally I would agree this winter, but with the blocking so strong, I believe the phase would likely yield more precip over the area. Secondly, the Euro the past three weeks has really not handled storms that well inside of 72 hours. Third- the HiRes models have been pretty consistent in a good lashing for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS slightly and I mean SLIGHTLY wetter. The 0.75 line is NW by maybe 30-40 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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