Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When does the next model of importance come out? I guess it's possible that really a verdict won't be in until very late tonight or tomorrow with Long Island/ NYC poised to get anywhere from 1 to 12 inches, right? Just curious too, what is the total projected QPF for KNYC and KJFK? Also, this is at least a 24 hour event if not 36 hours, right? I suppose no verdict is out there yet. 18z GFS, and it's rolling out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Light precip into Philly at hr 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 hours 21-24 light precip moving in. It still has that secondary qpf max well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 great to see rgem move back NW Hopefully 12z was the nadir for the models and we start to see a slight re-correct NW. I still think some of the overcorrects SE could be due to feedback errors, which models also suffered prior to 2/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 great to see rgem move back NW Honestly that's a bit more than a tick NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 hours 21-24 light precip moving in. It still has that secondary qpf max well offshore. Noticed that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 4km NAM http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Through hr 30 it's better than 12z but it's not anywhere near the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still has that crazy blob of QPF out east. Better than 12z, but no NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This run is also colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 18z GFS gets some better precip into the area but it's warm through hr 36. Keeps the best precip and dynamics offshore. It trended towards the NAM. It was almost there but just a tad too slow with interaction and that kicker or whatever you want to call it doesn't interact in time favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What time is the next NAM out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 18z GFS gets some better precip into the area but it's warm through hr 36. Keeps the best precip and dynamics offshore. It trended towards the NAM. It was almost there but just a tad too slow with interaction and that kicker or whatever you want to call it doesn't interact in time favorably. That blob is really affecting the precip shield. Still don't trust the GFS because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What time is the next NAM out? 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 still looks like crap. would say it looks like the euro but its actually further se with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The GFS was really close to pulling off a NAM like solution. It brought the low pretty far north, just not far enough NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What time is the next NAM out? Around 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingofQueens Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can anyone explain to my newbie self why the gfs qpf looks so different from the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 The RGEM was very much improved...looked to be pretty similar to the more amped data. Very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What did euro ensembles show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That blob is really affecting the precip shield. Still don't trust the GFS because of it. For the 2/8 storm the GFS had these same errors right up until the storm started, causing it to have a sheared out mess here when even the radar showed it much differently. The upper air trends are often more reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 matching th 18Z 36 hr with the 12Z 42 hr, there is little if any difference with the placement of the SLP...yet the qpf distribution is vastly different. The mid and upper levels are basically spot on as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For the 2/8 storm the GFS had these same errors right up until the storm started, causing it to have a sheared out mess here when even the radar showed it much differently. The upper air trends are often more reliable. Yep, it's doing the same damn thing. I won't analyze the upper levels, since I'm no weather guru, but the surface looks messed up much like it did for 2/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For the 2/8 storm the GFS had these same errors right up until the storm started, causing it to have a sheared out mess here when even the radar showed it much differently. The upper air trends are often more reliable. It's not good enough at 500 for us. Still way south and east from what would be preferable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z RGEM got much better. 20-25mm of total precip for NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can anyone explain to my newbie self why the gfs qpf looks so different from the nam?several reasons: less northern stream interaction, convective feedback issues (improper presentation of precipitation) , differences in the ULL (upper level low), blocking differences, to name a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z RGEM got much better. 20-25mm of total precip for NYC: And here is total precip as snow. Also solid: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS has way less precip for SNE than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And here is total precip as snow. Also solid: looks like a general 3-6 inches for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 rgem through 48 looks very similar to the nam. Basically a more realistic nam. about 0.8-0.9 for the city for the first part...inverted trough could add as much as 0.25 but we'll have to wait for 00z and the rgem/ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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