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Significant Ocean Storm March 5-7 2013 Discussion Part II


earthlight

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I think if you're the NWS you put the watches out just incase. 6"+ is a strong possability even without something extreme like the NAM.

i think you have to have watches as far west as western suffolk. euro showed some decent snow for that area and now the nam goes crazy, and it is cold probably mostly snow for that area too. eastern suffolk im not sure, could be a big cutoff from nyc to eastern li

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i think you have to have watches as far west as western suffolk. euro showed some decent snow for that area and now the nam goes crazy, and it is cold probably mostly snow for that area too. eastern suffolk im not sure, could be a big cutoff from nyc to eastern li

i  mean east lol

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i agree zirob the 18z gfs can literally not be worse lol. I think something nice that we have seen from the nam is that since it came north and suggested a higher impact event, it really kept the initial wave of precip intense enough from DC north into our area with some good vv's before other interactions took place intensifying precip further. There has been no trend in the nam away from this. The euro never really had an in tact precip shield reaching us at first, but since 12z yesterday, it has some semblance of an in tact precip shield, albeit slightly SE. I think the GFS is out to lunch in this sense. It might be right that we don't get much but the way it breaks everything up and shoves everything east really does not look like any modeling ATM

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i think you have to have watches as far west as western suffolk. euro showed some decent snow for that area and now the nam goes crazy, and it is cold probably mostly snow for that area too. eastern suffolk im not sure, could be a big cutoff from nyc to eastern li

Our warning criteria is 6" in 12 hours and 8" in 24 hours, something to keep in mind as this could be a very long duration event (I'm still not convinced this sticks unless it's nighttime or it's mod-heavy).

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i agree zirob the 18z gfs can literally not be worse lol. I think something nice that we have seen from the nam is that since it came north and suggested a higher impact event, it really kept the initial wave of precip intense enough from DC north into our area with some good vv's before other interactions took place intensifying precip further. There has been no trend in the nam away from this. The euro never really had an in tact precip shield reaching us at first, but since 12z yesterday, it has some semblance of an in tact precip shield, albeit slightly SE. I think the GFS is out to lunch in this sense. It might be right that we don't get much but the way it breaks everything up and shoves everything east really does not look like any modeling ATM

The GFS continues to seem to have the convective feedback issue. I expect the GFS to eventually come around and have an intact precip shield eventually, but whether it makes it over us is another question.

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I'm hoping that's just because they haven't updated for our our area yet.

Yes they have:

 

Wednesday Rain before 5pm, then rain and snow. High near 39. Breezy, with a northeast wind 17 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

 

Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 31. Blustery, with a north wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

 

Thursday A chance of snow before 11am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Breezy, with a north wind 23 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

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When does the next model of importance come out? I guess it's possible that really a verdict won't be in until very late tonight or tomorrow with Long Island/ NYC poised to get anywhere from 1 to 12 inches, right? Just curious too, what is the total projected QPF for KNYC and KJFK? Also, this is at least a 24 hour event if not 36 hours, right? I suppose no verdict is out there yet.

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