IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My guess is that Upton and Mt. Holly are discussing a short term watch as we speak. They didn't put out a new HWO for northern counties yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think if you're the NWS you put the watches out just incase. 6"+ is a strong possability even without something extreme like the NAM. i think you have to have watches as far west as western suffolk. euro showed some decent snow for that area and now the nam goes crazy, and it is cold probably mostly snow for that area too. eastern suffolk im not sure, could be a big cutoff from nyc to eastern li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I do not think they are at least yet because I think they updated. Mt. Holly hasn't updated it's northern zones yet, I just checked my zip code. Idk about Upton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i think you have to have watches as far west as western suffolk. euro showed some decent snow for that area and now the nam goes crazy, and it is cold probably mostly snow for that area too. eastern suffolk im not sure, could be a big cutoff from nyc to eastern li i mean east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
middlesea Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingofQueens Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What is that Upton map based on? I thought Eastern LI would get less than the West due to mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is the largest disparity I can recall this close to an event. Glad I'm just a hobbyist!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Upton WOW did not expect that much of an increase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What is that Upton map based on? I thought Eastern LI would get less than the West due to mixing. there map is all the way through friday pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i agree zirob the 18z gfs can literally not be worse lol. I think something nice that we have seen from the nam is that since it came north and suggested a higher impact event, it really kept the initial wave of precip intense enough from DC north into our area with some good vv's before other interactions took place intensifying precip further. There has been no trend in the nam away from this. The euro never really had an in tact precip shield reaching us at first, but since 12z yesterday, it has some semblance of an in tact precip shield, albeit slightly SE. I think the GFS is out to lunch in this sense. It might be right that we don't get much but the way it breaks everything up and shoves everything east really does not look like any modeling ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i think you have to have watches as far west as western suffolk. euro showed some decent snow for that area and now the nam goes crazy, and it is cold probably mostly snow for that area too. eastern suffolk im not sure, could be a big cutoff from nyc to eastern li Our warning criteria is 6" in 12 hours and 8" in 24 hours, something to keep in mind as this could be a very long duration event (I'm still not convinced this sticks unless it's nighttime or it's mod-heavy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Upton wsw incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i agree zirob the 18z gfs can literally not be worse lol. I think something nice that we have seen from the nam is that since it came north and suggested a higher impact event, it really kept the initial wave of precip intense enough from DC north into our area with some good vv's before other interactions took place intensifying precip further. There has been no trend in the nam away from this. The euro never really had an in tact precip shield reaching us at first, but since 12z yesterday, it has some semblance of an in tact precip shield, albeit slightly SE. I think the GFS is out to lunch in this sense. It might be right that we don't get much but the way it breaks everything up and shoves everything east really does not look like any modeling ATM The GFS continues to seem to have the convective feedback issue. I expect the GFS to eventually come around and have an intact precip shield eventually, but whether it makes it over us is another question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wsw incoming? read the time frame, that map is snow predicted in over 48 hrs which wouldnt equal wsw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What is that Upton map based on? I thought Eastern LI would get less than the West due to mixing.my guess is they're buying into a more euroesq solution where the exploding storm clips e Suffolk as well as new England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 read the time frame, that map is snow predicted in over 48 hrs which wouldnt equal wswyeah, saw that after I posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What is that Upton map based on? I thought Eastern LI would get less than the West due to mixing. They already have LI in 4-8 zone. see local forct below and Queens 2-4 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=242&y=164&site=okx&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=242&map_y=164 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That map looks like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 New map from Mt. Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wind advisory issued for LI EDIT: and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 New map from Mt. Holly Funny, most of the areas in the watch are only in the 2 to 4 and those in 4 to 6 are not under a watch yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z RGEM has ticked back NW a bit...i'm comparing it to the 6z RGEM since the Candian weatheroffice maps go in 12 hr increments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Funny, most of the areas in the watch are only in the 2 to 4 and those in 4 to 6 are not under a watch yet I'm hoping that's just because they haven't updated for our our area yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 RGEM is more northwest 18z http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif 12z http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The GFS is running, to me it looks a bit more amplified through hr 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm hoping that's just because they haven't updated for our our area yet. Yes they have: Wednesday Rain before 5pm, then rain and snow. High near 39. Breezy, with a northeast wind 17 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 31. Blustery, with a north wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday A chance of snow before 11am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Breezy, with a north wind 23 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Maybe I missed it but what does the EURO ensembles show? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 great to see rgem move back NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When does the next model of importance come out? I guess it's possible that really a verdict won't be in until very late tonight or tomorrow with Long Island/ NYC poised to get anywhere from 1 to 12 inches, right? Just curious too, what is the total projected QPF for KNYC and KJFK? Also, this is at least a 24 hour event if not 36 hours, right? I suppose no verdict is out there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well looks like Mt. Holly isn't issuing a watch for its northern counties since they just issued a HWO which only mentions 2-4'' for northern and central NJ. Surprising since their snow map has much of it (except far NW) in 4-6''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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