Blizzardo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yea.. I'm gonna drop my bet now..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at 42 the 1 in line is through most of NYC save for the bronx and basically follows the north shore of LI. 1.25 up to SI. Still snowing. Cold. freezing line very far east compared to earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well This is the NAMS Range now so you have to take it as a plausible situation. Crazy how one model GFS can go one way and how another can get even Stronger/better. WIll be interested in the GFS coming up soon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Per the simulated high res radars, the city is being crushed with a mega band at hr 31-32. 35dbz+ banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I remember the nam scoring a coup on a big storm but can't remember for the life of me when.... One of the january 2011 storms...I think the January 11th one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at 42 the firehouse off the atlantic is open for business. nailing eastern NE albeit slightly warm up there. RH maps show precip continued light to moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not only did the NAM hold serve but it's back to showing the really high numbers. A mega band moves from the city NW right over all of NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at 45 light to mod precip continues. This looks as if it wants to look like the euro with prolonged precip but hard to be sure yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 one positive is that Steve D is saying a lot of rain for us I think the "storm surge up to 8 feet!" is irresponsible, without explaining what that means. Yes, tides will likely be 8 feet above the mean low tide level, but high tide is usually 5 feet above low tide and the 8 feet being referred to is relative to mean low tide, meaning the "storm surge" is really 3 feet above mean high tide, which is what people care about. Nobody cares if the high tide is normal - they care how much higher it will get than a normal high tide. Here's what the NWS said in the AFD... OUR LOCAL IN HOUSE TIDAL DEPARTURE PROCEDURES ARE GIVING US A TIDAL DEPARTURE OF AROUND 2.5 FEET WITH THE STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THIS WAS USING A 50/50 NAM AND GFS BLEND. NOTING THAT THE "NORTHWARD" DRIFT OF THE MODELS HAS NOT STOPPED AND USING A STRAIGHT (NORTHERNMOST FOR THIS RUN) GFS SOLUTION WOULD TAKE US CLOSE TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLD WITH THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. A 2.5-3.0 foot storm surge above mean high tide is considered minor to moderate and is in line with many past nor'easters and a completely different animal than the 10-12 foot storm surge seen for Sandy - lots of people out there already freaking out about how these numbers are reported in the coastal flood advisory by the NWS (where they report 8 feet above mean lower low water, which is the same as mean low tide, really) - way too confusing for laypeople (and Steve, obviously). AT...SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY... HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 258 PM WEDNESDAY WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE WILL THEN OCCUR AT 331 AM THURSDAY WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. The NWS briefing package deck shows this in a nice graphic in the 6th slide. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Put the Central PA 's on suicide alert. State College is about the cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't buy the NAM, it does this every storm...do not fall for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at 48 light precip and 1.25 line cuts the city in half as well as LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at 42 the 1 in line is through most of NYC save for the bronx and basically follows the north shore of LI. 1.25 up to SI. Still snowing. Cold. freezing line very far east compared to earlier runs Could the reason why it is so cold be due to the fact that there is now more northern stream interaction than previous runs? I remember several days ago when we were discussing about this interaction needing to happen to get a colder scenario for our region. What a beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think we can say what falls up to 42 or even 45 will be heavy wet snow accumulating. Then it continues to snow but lightly so it probably stops accumulating much by around 10am or so but we are still precipitating at 4pm or hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at 48 light precip and 1.25 line cuts the city in half as well as LI Now lets cut it back to .8 & keep the cold solution and Ill 'settle' for 8 inches thx much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You guys get it on stormvista right? It’s only out to 39 on NECP... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Norlun trough kicking in at hr 51, this is going to end up being like the JMA, maybe even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z 4km NAM is hard to ignore. Looks absolutely beautiful on the sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You guys get it on stormvista right? It’s only out to 39 on NECP... -skisheep Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yanksfan i think the nam is going to look like what we wanted the euro to looks like since it hit us with the earlier precip AND the norlun. Also its the best we've got at this juncture. Precip wise its probably close to the srefs but slightly better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't buy the NAM, it does this every storm...do not fall for it It does but I remember for Blizzard it Did show Ridiculous amounts for NJ/NY one or Two runs but for Most part showed the 2-3 inch QPF totals over Conn and NE which is what really happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 P-type maps have C LI all snow through hr 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nam now has that inverted trough the Euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ok. got it. I expect a Trace - 13" tomorrow. cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 inverted trough/norlun taking over 51-54...don't know how much we'll get but if it's significant then this run is pretty much beautiful if it wasn't already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the "storm surge up to 8 feet!" is irresponsible, without explaining what that means. Yes, tides will likely be 8 feet above the mean low tide level, but high tide is usually 5 feet above low tide and the 8 feet being referred to is relative to mean low tide, meaning the "storm surge" is really 3 feet above mean high tide, which is what people care about. Nobody cares if the high tide is normal - they care how much higher it will get than a normal high tide. Here's what the NWS said in the AFD... OUR LOCAL IN HOUSE TIDAL DEPARTURE PROCEDURES ARE GIVING US A TIDAL DEPARTURE OF AROUND 2.5 FEET WITH THE STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THIS WAS USING A 50/50 NAM AND GFS BLEND. NOTING THAT THE "NORTHWARD" DRIFT OF THE MODELS HAS NOT STOPPED AND USING A STRAIGHT (NORTHERNMOST FOR THIS RUN) GFS SOLUTION WOULD TAKE US CLOSE TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLD WITH THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. A 2.5-3.0 foot storm surge above mean high tide is considered minor to moderate and is in line with many past nor'easters and a completely different animal than the 10-12 foot storm surge seen for Sandy - lots of people out there already freaking out about how these numbers are reported in the coastal flood advisory by the NWS (where they report 8 feet above mean lower low water, which is the same as mean low tide, really) - way too confusing for laypeople (and Steve, obviously). AT...SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY... HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 258 PM WEDNESDAY WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE WILL THEN OCCUR AT 331 AM THURSDAY WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. The NWS briefing package deck shows this in a nice graphic in the 6th slide. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf I guess apparently even some mets don't get the difference between storm tide vs. storm surge. In Sandy, a nearly 8 foot storm surge generated a nearly 11 foot storm tide for this area, and nearly 14 feet for Battery Park from a 9 foot surge. The difference maker then was unfortunately that it was nearly high tide when the max surge arrived. The level shown for this storm could generate some flooding along the highly vulnerable shores but it doesn't look serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 P-type maps have C LI all snow through hr 54 how much qpf accumulates through 54 on central li? im on nassau suffolk border so i think ill be alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yup...at 57 we're back in some good rh and light to mod precip overtaking the area from the north. freezing line close by and 850 line across central LI south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 54 the norlun is a tad northeast of where you want it, but the precip never ended. Instead as the main low moved out the norlun filled everything in. NW burbs changing back over to snow after a brief period of a lighter mixed bag. Hour 57 light snow from the city on NW. Through hr 57 the 1.00" line is sitting right over the Sussex/Morris County border. 85% plus of this is snow for the western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 continues at 60...1.5 line crossing into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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