IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 36 everyone getting crushed. The surface line continues to hang around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Crushed at hour 36. This is getting ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 33 Why cant the Nam be a competent Model.. That heavy Stripe of moisture is right over my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the nam is bad i know that. but if its going to be good it damn near better be good in the under 48hr time frame which it is supposedly much better in. I have about 0 confidence in this right now. Actually negative confidence. Is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Already more precip through 36 hours than what the GFS showed for the whole storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Why cant the Nam be a competent Model.. That heavy Stripe of moisture is right over my area. In this time range it certainly is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 High res simulated radar shows moderate precip moving in as early as 13z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is this even possible? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It wasn't even about the northern stream diving in and hooking precip back this run. It dove a bit further southeast, but some processes made the interaction really healthy right away with the coastal...so now that kicker shortwave actually saves us with the coastal as well. Really interesting stuff. Nice to know that we can still produce with this setup in several ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 In this time range it certainly is. Well NE seems to hug it in this time range..so it is possible we can too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i really have never seen models switch back and forth this much in the 12 years of model watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 One has got to think, what's the point of even having NCEP spend $$ on running the NAM if it's not useful within it's "useful" range of <48 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I remember the nam scoring a coup on a big storm but can't remember for the life of me when.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 39 crushing continues. Surface freezing line has now moved east of the city. Easily snowing at 1" per hour rates for the western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12/19/09 huge coup...i actually vividly remember it too. I was feeling really giddy at the time because I was studying for my 1st yr of med school finals and needed something to make me happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I remember the nam scoring a coup on a big storm but can't remember for the life of me when.... Being sarcastic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I remember the nam scoring a coup on a big storm but can't remember for the life of me when.... Are you sure you didn't dream this one up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I remember the nam scoring a coup on a big storm but can't remember for the life of me when.... Feb 2010... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 One has got to think, what's the point of even having NCEP spend $$ on running the NAM if it's not useful within it's "useful" range of <48 hrs? It is useful, but every single model this winter has busted big time for a storm within the 48 timeframe. I know the Euro did once this winter, I just can't recall the exact date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 these models are giving me a headache. No worries, though. Bloomberg will sort it all out & tell us "business as usual" and to expect light wind and some drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It wasn't even about the northern stream diving in and hooking precip back this run. It dove a bit further southeast, but some processes made the interaction really healthy right away with the coastal...so now that kicker shortwave actually saves us with the coastal as well. Really interesting stuff. Nice to know that we can still produce with this setup in several ways. It also seems to me that the main s/w is quite a bit more potent then previous runs...would that perhaps help the low maintain its own momentum and make it harder for the Great Lakes shortwave to act like a kicker? Instead, it kind of just meanders longer and waits for the northern energy to phase in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at hour 36 850 freezing line just over twin forks of li, maybe a little west. what are surface temps? even if not below i could see western suffolk west in snow becasuse of the dynamics and heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12/19/09 huge coup I was gonna say 3 years ago.. good call ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Through hr 39 1" line touching Staten Island and 0.75" line touching KMMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When can we agree on a solution? Just when I thought the EURO had won, we get this run! Oy vey... Crazy thing is it’s like 24 hours out... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 During the blizzard back in Feb, I believe the NAM was the only model showing 4" QPF amounts for LI while the other global models had around 2", everyone though the NAM was crazy and it was closer to reality than the other global models had inside 36-hours. The 4-Km NAM had 9" of QPF for NJ on one run, and corrected itself and gave LI around 4" of QPF. It might be right in this situation as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This run is much colder than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The high res NAM simulated radars are a thing beauty. They look like a drew them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 One has got to think, what's the point of even having NCEP spend $$ on running the NAM if it's not useful within it's "useful" range of <48 hrs? No model is perfect but I hardly consider the NAM useless... certainly has its quirks, though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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