Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That doesn't work in March. Oh well, I'd much rather prefer a nice CCB like previously modeled. But we'll see. in 18 hrs we get roughly an inch for the city and 0.75ish for nearby burbs. I think yanksfan overstated the light precip long duration thing, bc from my standpoint this looks a lot like the nam from 12z which would have accumulated fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro's snowmap has close to 6 inches for NYC with more towards LI and a lot more in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 how are temps at 850/925/950/surface? surface looks similar to the nam-ish and the 850's are below 0 throughout. Too lazy to compare to 09z though lol. Either way if the sref verified it'd be heavy snow for a period that would accumulate. My concern is that the end result will be less precip over a longer period a la the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 in 18 hrs we get roughly an inch for the city and 0.75ish for nearby burbs. I think yanksfan overstated the light precip long duration thing, bc from my standpoint this looks a lot like the nam from 12z which would have accumulated fine. Really need both batches of precip to fall at night, light to moderate doesn't cut in the day now especially closer to the coast. Not a reflection of BL temps just a matter of precip intensity coupled with solar insulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Storm surge potential up to 8 feet? The storm surge for Sandy in Reynolds Channel was about 7.5-8ft, I believe. What ridiculousness when winds look like they'll be fairly run of the mill (we've had 40-50mph gusts many times in Nor'easters), and northerly. Yeah, really. 8 feet may be a bit much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is this the phase Dsnow was talking about that would be better for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro's snowmap has close to 6 inches for NYC with more towards LI and a lot more in SNE. Really? wow, wasn’t expecting that. Can you post it? Thanks! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Through hr 12 the 18z NAM looks north ever so slightly. Maybe a tad northeast, or it could just be a tad quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 While we cry over what could have been at least we can smile as we listen to DT admit to busting on the airwaves! http://www.1140wrva.com/player/?station=WRVA-AM&program_name=podcast&program_id=RMNPodcasts.xml&mid=22945685 Richmond is a tough spot for die hard snow lovers. Climo really works against getting significant snow there especially in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really? wow, wasn’t expecting that. Can you post it? Thanks! -skisheep Yes but remember is during a 24+ hour event..maybe 36+..therefore those 6 inches..may end up like 1 friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really? wow, wasn’t expecting that. Can you post it? Thanks! -skisheep It's from a paid site. Boston gets slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is this the phase Dsnow was talking about that would be better for us? That's actually not the one I was referring to. That comes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's from a paid site. Boston gets slammed. Yeap BOS has almost 24+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really? wow, wasn’t expecting that. Can you post it? Thanks! -skisheep It's because of the strong inverted trough feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Height field on the NAM is already suppressed to the Southeast over the Mid Atlantic compared to the 12z run. This has to do more with the exact positioning of the energy in the ULL and not much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I find it really, really difficult to forecast more than 1-3" for any location in and around the metro area in this situation. Not only are totals higher than that unlikely without a direct impact from the CCB and associated favorable lift and dynamics...but any area that might see those higher totals is too hard to discern at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nearly identical position from hr 21z at 12z compared to hr 15 at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's from a paid site. Boston gets slammed. What does monmouth get? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 <p>Also note the easterly wind component at 850 mb is 5+ SD above normal Thu night, as modeled by the SREF mean:</p> <p> </p> <p> </p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 18 precip knocking on the door of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What does monmouth get? Rossi 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A good link to bookmark: PSU SREF spaghetti plots and departures from normal: http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/ensembles/ The 15z SREFs have trended toward a much stronger signal for another burst of snow Thu night/Fri morning. While all of you guys are looking at QPF trends, I find it's more relevant to look at trends aloft to see what's driving the trends. Look at the trends in 850 mb moisture flux on Thu night from the 15z SREF vs. 9Z. The 15z SREF is modeling a 850 mb moisture flux of over 3 SD above normal for LI/CT, quite a strong signal. 15Z SREF: 9Z SREF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 <p>Also note the easterly wind component at 850 mb is 5+ SD above normal Thu night, as modeled by the SREF mean:</p> <p> </p> <p> </p> Terrific post. Thanks for sharing this. We really might have to hope for that 2nd burst, then. Good thing the Euro is the model most enthused with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 21 precip still taking its sweet time to make it up this way. Philly into moderate precip already. The surface is warm but 850's are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That kicker shortwave is much further southeast on this run, which might help us, or might hurt us. We'll see. If it's southeast enough, it will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 24 light precip moving in. The surface is really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Surprised that SREFS and now NAM are holding serve. I’m revising my outlook on this again, I think I see advisory snows, but not sure if it’s from the coastal or the trough, but none the less, should be interesting. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 24 light precip moving in. The surface is really warm. Yeah, hour 24 is 1 p.m. tomorrow, so it would be warm then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The surface low is coming northeast at hr 24 and the interaction with the kicker wave is beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 27 light rain or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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