friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 12z NAM actually keeps them separate through 72 hours. Perhaps this is why the NAM is further NW with its precipitation shield to begin with, as that feature does not have any kicker influence. We can either go back to having those features be more separate, or go to having that feature diving in sooner. Right now, we're caught in between. I actually like this analysis. Makes sense. Unfortunately if the NAM speeds up/dives that S/W above the GL into our main low anymore all it will do is kick. Interesting though that feature still needs to develop so all bets are by no means off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 sref is drier, which wasn't at all unexpected. It is however still 1.0+ for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 15Z SREF'S HELD SERVE. 0.75"+ FOR EVERYONE. 1.0"+ CLOSER TO THE CITY. We get the initial low and then the inverted trough. Precip begins hr 27 and ends hr 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 sref is drier, which wasn't at all unexpected. It is however still 1.0+ for NYC How much is from the coastal, and how much is from the northern stream feature that has been showing up on the Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 sref appears to bring NYC to 1.25. Which in a normal event isn't so unexpected for it to tick up and then down right before it starts. So not much of a red flag here still pretty wet given what we have available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I actually like this analysis. Makes sense. Unfortunately if the NAM speeds up/dives that S/W above the GL into our main low anymore all it will do is kick. Interesting though that feature still needs to develop so all bets are by no means off. It definitely seemed that there was something with the 12z data that told the models to trend faster with that shortwave near the Great Lakes. It's just that the Euro was already very potent and fast with it, which is why it went from a moderate inverted trough to a significant inverted trough feature -- whereas for the other models, it did not increase its precipitation output, as they went from non kicker to kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 by 48 it looks like 1.0 has fallen. So it looks a lot like the 12z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 15Z SREF'S HELD SERVE. 0.75"+ FOR EVERYONE. 1.0"+ CLOSER TO THE CITY. We get the initial low and then the inverted trough. Precip begins hr 27 and ends hr 75. sref appears to bring NYC to 1.25. Which in a normal event isn't so unexpected for it to tick up and then down right before it starts. So not much of a red flag here still pretty wet given what we have available. Where do you guys get the SREFs so early? Neither NCEP or PSU has updated yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Where do you guys get the SREFs so early? Neither NCEP or PSU has updated yet I think Kaner gets it from StormVista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Euro and the NAM look very different at 72 hours, as the Euro has that feature fully phased in, and the NAM still has it remaining primarily separate and in SE Canada. Definitely interesting, worth watching for sure. I just want to point out the vorts slamming into California which are on these maps days ahead of even the depicted time frame here. Probably some of the reason why the orientation of ridges and troughs is just a tad too unfavorable for the coastal to slam us like it would with a better oriented western ridge. Just an observation from my novice eyes. Could be compeltely wrong about that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Where do you guys get the SREFs so early? Neither NCEP or PSU has updated yet StormVista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 by 48 it looks like 1.0 has fallen. So it looks a lot like the 12z nam. Perhaps that is very good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Pretty interesting though that the SREFs pretty much held serve with quite a wetter scenario than most model guidance. Things can easily trend back more favorably with the interaction between the northern stream "kicker" and the low. As Doug mentioned earlier, this "kicker" could either trend further southeast and bring this system further west through this interaction, or the "kicker" could move further northwest, and not have as much of a "kicking" influence to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 While we cry over what could have been at least we can smile as we listen to DT admit to busting on the airwaves! http://www.1140wrva.com/player/?station=WRVA-AM&program_name=podcast&program_id=RMNPodcasts.xml&mid=22945685 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 one positive is that Steve D is saying a lot of rain for us Storm surge potential up to 8 feet? The storm surge for Sandy in Reynolds Channel was about 7.5-8ft, I believe. What ridiculousness when winds look like they'll be fairly run of the mill (we've had 40-50mph gusts many times in Nor'easters), and northerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ya i honestly don't know what to think. A cursory look at the 500mb maps looks like there is some interaction from the s/w coming from the great lakes but its effect is hard to discern. Someone with better meteo knowledge should analyze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS look like they backed off to me, a clear trend towards the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 FWIW the 15z SREF's match the 12z JMA. We get the initial shot of lighter precip from the low and then the inverted trough kicks in before the precip can completely move out. It's sort of trading one for the other. Verbatim it's a really prolonged period of light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS look like they backed off to me, a clear trend towards the globals You're trading less precip from the surface low for more precip from the norlun. It comes out drier but it's a longer duration event in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=48&ptype=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Cross your fingers, the 18z NAM is initializing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=48&ptype=snow Actually gives the NW burbs a 5% chance of greater than 24" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS look like they backed off to me, a clear trend towards the globals its all semantics. 09z sref was about 1.5 for nyc. now its about 1.25. So on the western fringe it probably did get significantly drier (didn't look just guessing) but over for a good portion of posters there wasn't a HUGE change. A reduction of 15% is probably not a significant change, although we can debate the meaning of trending and changing and yada yada yada. Either way it is one of the more encouraging models for our area ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Pretty interesting though that the SREFs pretty much held serve with quite a wetter scenario than most model guidance. Things can easily trend back more favorably with the interaction between the northern stream "kicker" and the low. As Doug mentioned earlier, this "kicker" could either trend further southeast and bring this system further west through this interaction, or the "kicker" could move further northwest, and not have as much of a "kicking" influence to the east. Part of it is the vertical stacking of this upper air and sfc low too though. That destroys the dynamics up this way (although nowhere near what the convective feedback plagued GFS shows). The low crawling actually hurts us in that way. A quicker phasing in of that piece of energy is definitely helpful also. It also acts to keep it colder-notice the NAM keeps that separate and therefore torches much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 its all semantics. 09z sref was about 1.5 for nyc. now its about 1.25. So on the western fringe it probably did get significantly drier (didn't look just guessing) but over for a good portion of posters there wasn't a HUGE change. A reduction of 15% is probably not a significant change, although we can debate the meaning of trending and changing and yada yada yada. Either way it is one of the more encouraging models for our area ATM. Yeah, it's nice that it didn't back off significantly. But perhaps this does mean the the SREF is starting to see that Great Lakes shortwave as a kicker to an extent. I'd rather have the scenario where that shortwave is more of a separate entity, but if these trends continue, we might have to hope for the fuller and earlier phase. That being said, trends are not always linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 FWIW the 15z SREF's match the 12z JMA. We get the initial shot of lighter precip from the low and then the inverted trough kicks in before the precip can completely move out. It's sort of trading one for the other. Verbatim it's a really prolonged period of light to moderate snow. That doesn't work in March. Oh well, I'd much rather prefer a nice CCB like previously modeled. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, it's nice that it didn't back off significantly. But perhaps this does mean the the SREF is starting to see that Great Lakes shortwave as a kicker to an extent. I'd rather have the scenario where that shortwave is more of a separate entity, but if these trends continue, we might have to hope for the fuller and earlier phase. That being said, trends are not always linear. agree and agree. You could totally envision a scenario where the phase occurs faster and thus that precip being depicted over SNE that sort of backs in happens further SW. I don't want any weenies in here to jump on me, because I'm not suggesting this is going to happen, just saying that with the players on the field this is far from a done deal. Just as it was last night when people were licking their chops expecting a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 stormvista how are temps at 850/925/950/surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 agree and agree. You could totally envision a scenario where the phase occurs faster and thus that precip being depicted over SNE that sort of backs in happens further SW. I don't want any weenies in here to jump on me, because I'm not suggesting this is going to happen, just saying that with the players on the field this is far from a done deal. Just as it was last night when people were licking their chops expecting a major storm. This is exactly how I feel right now. Precip backing in from NE to SW from a decaying strong ULL can bring good snows, still. 2/26/10 is an example...different setups of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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