dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This thread is unreadable. The amount of entitlement that some posters feel here is enough to make me vomit. Normally I'd agree but in this case you have to admit this is pretty awful to sit back and watch DC and Boston yield 12 inches + while we get really no meaningful accumulating snow. No one is saying they are entitled while the other regions aren't but to be skipped over like this is very rare when we are talking about a snowstorm impacting DC and Boston but not Philly and NYC in March and some venting of disappointment is not a sense of entitlement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2nd part total precip for Thursday night into Friday morning:NYC: .49"BDR: .62"ISP: .62" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Philly Subforum They've were screwed for every event this season, even the little duster clippers. I know-definitely hasn't been a winter for the corridor SW of NYC. Luckily spring's almost here. I'm somewhat optimistic that the front end is being cut away too much, but the fact that every model backed off on it means that the nighttime thumping we needed around the city and coast isn't going to happen in all likelihood. This is looking like it could verify in pretty much the most frustrating manner possible for this area down to the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I know you're going to deny this since you're a troll...but the Euro had zero zilch for Boston less than 2 days ago...significant precip 500 miles away from their latitude... now in excess of 2.5" qpf. Stop looking at your own backyard and realize the GFS was the first to clue in on a more north7ern solutionThe name calling and what not will not help us in any way shape or form to predict what is going to happen. That being said, we live and die by every model and we cant- we need to look at why the NCEP models have shifted somewhat ( GFS specifically ). Analysis is what models are for, not for using explicitly which one you like. I cant right now because I'm working at my Fd, but I will say that my guess would be the s/w which allowed for height rises is not being perfectly positioned to allow for the height rises like it was before and thus allowing the precip to really ramp up the coast. Then there's also the issue of phasing which will take some time to be ironed out yet- the euro wasnt exactly spot on with this in Feb, though it did a good job. Were not done by any means - we will have to really dissect these models to see what's going on, but I suspect the Euro may not be fully correct either as the phase with this type of block may not completely miss us. The NAM will be useful to look at this as this is its strong points with storms- mesoscale features and were now in a pretty good range for it. But please issue analysis and not character attacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Normally I'd agree but in this case you have to admit this is pretty awful to sit back and watch DC and Boston yield 12 inches + while we get really no meaningful accumulating snow. No one is saying they are entitled while the other regions aren't but to be skipped over like this is very rare when we are talking about a snowstorm impacting DC and Boston but not Philly and NYC in March and some venting of disappointment is not a sense of entitlement. No, the crying doesn't belong in this thread. If you want to complain and whine then do it in the banter thread. Keep this place clear for scientific discussion about the event. This one isn't over, especially with the norlun trough idea but I certainly wouldn't want to rely on that. They almost never end up as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro is a big f-u also for people looking for even one day of warmth. Has almost a back door cold front look and areas NE of interior CNJ dont make it out of the upper 30's to mid 40's either sat or sun with the cold front approaching. Monday looks warmer but still sub 50 for everyone north and east of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Normally I'd agree but in this case you have to admit this is pretty awful to sit back and watch DC and Boston yield 12 inches + while we get really no accumulating snow. No one is saying they are entitled while the other regions aren't but to be skipped over like this is very rare when we are talking about a snowstorm impacting DC and Boston but not Philly and NYC in March and some venting of disappointment is not a sense of entitlement. I agree especially when NUMEROUS runs of different models were Showing Big hits in this region. With that said curious to see what the new SREFS,NAM and other short range guidance say this afternoon and tonight for Sh!ts and Giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not 1 model held its course with this storm The NAM and SREF's have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2nd part total precip for Thursday night into Friday morning: NYC: .49" BDR: .62" ISP: .62" Norluns are almost impossible to really rely on. I think that could easily trend to less or over a different area next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 verbatim it'd probably be an inch of slop initially with maybe 2 or 3 inches with the norlun thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Norluns are almost impossible to really rely on. I think that could easily trend to less or over a different area next run. Im pretty sure it's an inverted trough feature. Not a narrow norlun trough. Same type of thing that dropped a widespread 3"-9" on SNE a couple weeks back. If it were just a narrow norlun trough, I wouldnt even mention it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 12z GEFS individual members show basically nothing for the city and an advisory level snowfall NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 why is everyone surprised.....when will people learn to stop hugging a ridiculous NAM solution or one boffo GFS run that is an outlier. This storm was never forecasted 5-6 days ago to be a foot storm...we were always on the fringe of getting something and there were clear indications of temperture issues. Too much weeniesm run rampant and actually I am surprised after the crackdown how much banter has been allowed to take control over the threads the Euro has generally been consistent..yes it shifted a little at times but it never showed the area getting a big hit here. Way oversimplified. When a meteorological legend, like Walt Drag (NWS-Philly) says, "TO PREFACE THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING... THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY NOT BEEN STELLAR INSIDE OF DAY 5...SINCE THE SANDY EVENT FOR OUR AREA... AND IN MY OPINION...AT LEAST FOR THIS AREA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE SREF ARE BETTER PREDICTORS FOR OUR WEATHER..." it's clear that the potential for major snow was not simply predicated on the NAM, but on sound meteorological reasoning - which may turn out to be wrong, but that happens more than the pros would like in this business. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=11&glossary=0&highlight=off I do agree that weenieism has crept back in too much and would prefer if only pros or "approved" non-pros did the play by plays, at least - we've seen way too much wishcasting and erroneous speculation during the pbp threads the past day or two. The model that gives us the most snow is not necessarily the right one and the others "dismissed" for some biased reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Norluns are almost impossible to really rely on. I think that could easily trend to less or over a different area next run. exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NCEP models took the Euro to school when it came to Boston. Just saying. The senseless bashing is getting out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 philly itself has been screwd but there are areas 30 or so miles to the east or west that have gotten 3x as much snow as the airpot location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NCEP models took the Euro to school when it came to Boston. Just saying. The senseless bashing is getting out of hand. thats true...but, the ncep models screwed us something fierce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Im pretty sure it's an inverted trough feature. Not a narrow norlun trough. Same type of thing that dropped a widespread 3"-9" on SNE a couple weeks back. If it were just a narrow norlun trough, I wouldnt even mention it at all. A shortwave coming down from the lakes enhances it and causes a widespread inverted trough feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not 1 model held its course with this storm The interaction between the main closed low with the energy cutting through the lakes is very challenging to model correctly since such a small change will yield significantly different outcomes. Adding that big block over Eastern Canada is not helping matters. In situations like this, it's better to wait until you see several runs among the varying models agree before pulling the trigger on a specific solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A shortwave coming down from the lakes enhances it and causes a widespread inverted trough feature. Joe Lundberg just said the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A shortwave coming down from the lakes enhances it and causes a widespread inverted trough feature. It is a much more plausible Norlun than usual IMO, but it doesn't mean that I expect much snow on the ground from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z and 0z will be big. every run is different.. we will be here tomorrow waiting for the 12z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The interaction between the main closed low with the energy cutting through the lakes is very challenging to model correctly since such a small change will yield significant different outcomes. Adding that big block over Eastern Canada is not helping matters. In situations like this, it's better to wait until you see several runs among the varying models agree before pulling the trigger on a specific outcome. Definitely agree, but the euro has been very persistent with this feature for a couple of runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 every run is different.. we will be here tomorrow waiting for the 12z too. We are weenies. What do you expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The interaction between the main closed low with the energy cutting through the lakes is very challenging to model correctly since such a small change will yield significantly different outcomes. Adding that big block over Eastern Canada is not helping matters. In situations like this, it's better to wait until you see several runs among the varying models agree before pulling the trigger on a specific solution. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm riding with the NAM, SREF's and JMA. ride or die baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What do EURO temps look like, both for the snow tomorrow night and for thursday night? if we can get .68" at BDR thursday night with ok temps that's solid advisory. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 every run is different.. we will be here tomorrow waiting for the 12z too. Sad thing is all the people complaining or writing storm off(including myself) will be back for more aggravation tonight and tomorrow morning. When your a weather addict and something big is THAT close the juice is worth the squeeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A shortwave coming down from the lakes enhances it and causes a widespread inverted trough feature. It's the same inverted trough that's enhancing New England's precip. But that shortwave coming down greatly enhances it and helps to drag it southwest. Not impossible. It's not some narrow norlun trough. But potentially having to ditch that coastal really sucks. I never completely give up on events, but things aren't looking great right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sad thing is all the people complaining or writing storm off(including myself) will be back for more aggravation tonight and tomorrow morning. When your a weather addict and something big is THAT close the juice is worth the squeeze. Yes..Im watching this one even before the EURO showed us the 2+ last week and everyone started getting interested in it. I think this is our last chance for this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.