ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And if they don't cave ? does it matter - those two are without a doubt incorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Norlun trough building in at hr 72, it might save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Euro refires NE at hr 48 CCB eastern NE , as per NE THREAD . PLEASE THROW THE SREF AND NAM IN THE GARBAGE PLEASE . Jumped , Boston gets whacked at hr 54 .... Good for them they need the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 hr 72 is light snow from KMMU north and west. Likely too warm at the surface for the city and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro has it precipitating the whole time but we never do better than 0.1 or so (maybe a little more for some areas) in a 6 hr period. In the end looks similar to 0z. Based on timing, the norlun would occur into the overnight thursday so it would be an opportunity for another 1-3 but to depend on that after what was being doled out on some of the more amped nam/sref/gfs runs is depressing. I wish I could just erase this from my memory lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It would be showery rain/nonaccumulating snow for most of the day. The absolute furthest thing from exciting-I'd rather have 60 and sunny. If the front end doesn't happen tomorrow night, as far as I'm concerned the chances for accumulating snow are quite slim. Yeah I don't recall any situation where we picked up 6" and it took more than the normal 12 to 18 hours or less (unless there was a substantial break in the middle but certainly not with continuous snow falling for 24 hours or more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 78 light snow for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The inverted trough is impressive. It's further south than last night . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 somehow we get close to an inch of qpf but its prolonged and would probably result in a slushy 2-3 inches at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We're saved by the norlun trough, 0.75"+ for the city and immediate sourrounding areas. Less as you go west of KMMU. If I lived more than 40 miles NW of the city I would be concerned about a total whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The inverted trough is impressive. It's further south than last night . Anth , Come on man , the systems best dynamics are NE of you after swing around from the SE . Only stormin norman pulled off a better end around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro looks similiar to the 0z run When we actually want a storm to be more progressive this year, when we need it to be more progressive, the storm slows to a crawl, stacks and dies on us as it nails MD/DC/VA. Then, the northern stream dives in and phases just in time for Boston and eastern New England, but instead of clearing us out and being done with it, we rot in miserable mid-30s weather with rain and meaningless snow showers all day. How much more of a fail can you draw up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 84 it's all over. If the Euro is correct, the bigger snow threat is Friday. I still think the final result is somewhere between the NAM and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Some of this model bashing is stupid. If you don't want to use a model, don't use it (whether or not that is advisable is a completely different issue). But don't use it and then when it changes to an unfavorable solution call it crap. If it was the one model holding out and last minute switched to snow everyone would gobble it up. Calling NCEP models "crap" and an "autotoss" is really offensive to the scientists who have dedicated themselves to building these really amazing models that you all keep on using anyway and if you knew the amount of parameterizations and processes it was having to resolve you'd see that it is really quite amazing that the models do as well as they do. Edited to add: If you were an NCEP modeler (an amazing resource on modeling), would you want to be around a place like this? We already have one who has threatened to leave because of the baseless criticism that goes on about the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I really can't describe how I feel right now.. this is insane..now BOS 2.5+ qpf and what do we get.. grrr l;ike if they need more snow. it's only weather..geez,with the march sun it will be gone in Boston by Sunday..who cares what they get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 why is everyone surprised.....when will people learn to stop hugging a ridiculous NAM solution or one boffo GFS run that is an outlier. This storm was never forecasted 5-6 days ago to be a foot storm...we were always on the fringe of getting something and there were clear indications of temperture issues. Too much weeniesm run rampant and actually I am surprised after the crackdown how much banter has been allowed to take control over the threads the Euro has generally been consistent..yes it shifted a little at times but it never showed the area getting a big hit here. Yeah it was, 7 days ago Euro showed a HUGE storm for a Couple Runs and GFS also hinted it. I remember reading on Accuweather Blog Warning of a Possible HUGE storm a week away. Yesterday afternoon a couple people albeit a bit Premature were throwing the B word around . Now 24 hours Later everyone is writing it off. Anyway , The whole winter everything looks look from a distance(7 to 10 day threats) as you get closer it never pans out minus the big Snowstorm/ Blizzard which wasn't even close to that part of the area. My area has a total of about 12 to 13 inches since Dec. For snow lovers this one could be the straw that breaks the camels back until next winter. Too much wasted time invested tracking storms getting little results can do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When we actually want a storm to be more progressive this year, when we need it to be more progressive, the storm slows to a crawl, stacks and dies on us as it nails MD/DC/VA. Then, the northern stream dives in and phases just in time for Boston and eastern New England, but instead of clearing us out and being done with it, we rot in miserable mid-30s weather with rain and meaningless snow showers all day. How much more of a fail can you draw up? Philly Subforum They've were screwed for every event this season, even the little duster clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 why is everyone surprised.....when will people learn to stop hugging a ridiculous NAM solution or one boffo GFS run that is an outlier. This storm was never forecasted 5-6 days ago to be a foot storm...we were always on the fringe of getting something and there were clear indications of temperture issues. Too much weeniesm run rampant and actually I am surprised after the crackdown how much banter has been allowed to take control over the threads the Euro has generally been consistent..yes it shifted a little at times but it never showed the area getting a big hit here. I think your wrong. if anything.. the EURO showed NYC having a big snowstorm.. as well as DC. now is Boston instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Some of this model bashing is stupid. If you don't want to use a model, don't use it (whether or not that is advisable is a completely different issue). But don't use it and then when it changes to an unfavorable solution call it crap. If it was the one model holding out and last minute switched to snow everyone would gobble it up. Calling NCEP models "crap" and an "autotoss" is really offensive to the scientists who have dedicated themselves to building these really amazing models that you all keep on using anyway and if you knew the amount of parameterizations and processes it was having to resolve you'd see that it is really quite amazing that the models do as well as they do. Edited to add: If you were an NCEP modeler (an amazing resource on modeling), would you want to be around a place like this? We already have one who has threatened to leave because of the baseless criticism that goes on about the models. I'd be interested in some specifications for the hardware these programs run on. I visited NCAR in Boulder a few years ago and they had a pretty massive super computer in the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the truth is the ccb isn't so far away and would only take a small shift to get some more meaningful precip (a la the nam) over our area. I absolutely do not think that is the end result, but it isn't far fetched and as much as I hate it, the euro didn't exactly say its over for us (seeing as it basically held on from 00z and if anything may be even more moist, albeit with a lot of meaningless non accumulating precip). I almost wish it did because it could end all of this fruitless frustrating model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So far the JMA is the best solution on the table. The initial shot of precip is just far enough north that we get the initial wave. Then as that slides east the norlun trough hammers us. It has a nearly 72 hour total event with small breaks in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 why is everyone surprised.....when will people learn to stop hugging a ridiculous NAM solution or one boffo GFS run that is an outlier. This storm was never forecasted 5-6 days ago to be a foot storm...we were always on the fringe of getting something and there were clear indications of temperture issues. Too much weeniesm run rampant and actually I am surprised after the crackdown how much banter has been allowed to take control over the threads the Euro has generally been consistent..yes it shifted a little at times but it never showed the area getting a big hit here. I know you're going to deny this since you're a troll...but the Euro had zero zilch for Boston less than 2 days ago...significant precip 500 miles away from their latitude... now in excess of 2.5" qpf. Stop looking at your own backyard and realize the GFS was the first to clue in on a more northern solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This thread is unreadable. The amount of entitlement that some posters feel here is enough to make me vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So wait to Sum it Up Areas from Virginia to De are gonna get pummeled it skips NJ,NY Conn than reforms/phases and crushes NE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Some of this model bashing is stupid. If you don't want to use a model, don't use it (whether or not that is advisable is a completely different issue). But don't use it and then when it changes to an unfavorable solution call it crap. If it was the one model holding out and last minute switched to snow everyone would gobble it up. Calling NCEP models "crap" and an "autotoss" is really offensive to the scientists who have dedicated themselves to building these really amazing models that you all keep on using anyway and if you knew the amount of parameterizations and processes it was having to resolve you'd see that it is really quite amazing that the models do as well as they do. Edited to add: If you were an NCEP modeler (an amazing resource on modeling), would you want to be around a place like this? We already have one who has threatened to leave because of the baseless criticism that goes on about the models. The scientists are top notch, but the management strategy and government funding is lacking. http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/director/ucar_reports/EMC_Report_UCAR_Final.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I really can't describe how I feel right now.. this is insane..now BOS 2.5+ qpf and what do we get.. grrr l;ike if they need more snow. I really do not think this is the final solution...this is another different solution by the Euro --pretty wild model swings in the last couple of days. There are now 2 northern s/ws in the equation, lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is the EURO 3 days ago. showing 2 + inches of liquid ..in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro is very overrated especially this winter, it ha s wavered too many times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i think whats being missed is the blocking high is another 100 miles further east with its setup than it was predicted yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro has around .50 of precip for Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.