MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS has .50-.75 for NYC and lesser as you head inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm going to take a stab and say that the Euro doesn't budge either north, south nor east. Remains and stands its ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm going to take a stab and say that the Euro doesn't budge either north, south nor east. Remains and stands its ground.Well I think it will come north...It could go anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm going to take a stab and say that the Euro doesn't budge either north, south nor east. Remains and stands its ground. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Almost everytime it seems like the storms trend southeast in the last 24 hours or so, there's gotta be some sort of defect that can be identified if this repeatedly occurs? Right? It's almost as if you have to expect it. To those who say they always end up a tick n or nw, I virtually never see that happen. Obviously the storm hasn't hit yet but based the history of these models, youd be wise to hedge your bets on a further SE solution within 24 or so hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Countdown... I will make my final call after the eruo based on its low placement and strength with emphasis on climo and analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Almost everytime it seems like the storms trend southeast in the last 24 hours or so, there's gotta be some sort of defect that can be identified if this repeatedly occurs? Right? It's almost as if you have to expect it. To those who say they always end up a tick n or nw, I virtually never see that happen. Obviously the storm hasn't hit yet but based the history of these models, youd be wise to hedge your bets on a further SE solution within 24 or so hours. That's been common this winter mainly and if you are referring to the GFS specifically, historically it rarely does these SE shifts at the last minute quite the opposite actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What's the wind situation looking like regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What's the wind situation looking like regardless No HWW from Upton. With the wind direction having a large offshore component and the low not being very deep, (compared to past storms) and the highest gradient to our east I would say a solid wind advisory event along the coast with gusts to 50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Excellent article to read as we follow the models play ping pong with our hopes. Some prespective: http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/9071/predicting-snows-matter-most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 +1 I shoot for a 75 mile shift NW with qpf around .8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 JMA still has about 1 inch of QPF for NYChttp://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 JMA still has about 1 inch of QPF for NYC http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif It still shifted everything SE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Regardless of the model mayhem today I'd say that the area avg around .5-.6 so 3-6 inches is the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro looks better with the precip at hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Regardless of the model mayhem today I'd say that the area avg around .5-.6 so 3-6 inches is the way to go But you do realize a half inch of precip spread out over 48 hours with marginal temps would most likely not yield 3 to 6"? We would not see the dynamic evaporational cooling and accumulations would be slushy during times of steadier/more moderate precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I see the same thing as 0z.. thru 36hr.. don't know if it will change after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 looks crappy overal not too dissimilar to the gfs. meh. It was fun while it lasted. Lets wait for the sref and nam to cave at 230 and 3 respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But you do realize a half inch of precip spread out over 48 hours with marginal temps would most likely not yield 3 to 6"? We would not see the dynamic evaporational cooling and accumulations would be slushy during times of steadier/more moderate precipitation. That's absolutely correct. Would yield dusting to 3" at best. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro looks similiar to the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Euro isn't good. We didn't get the shift we needed. Heavy precip never makes it into the area and the surface is above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 looks crappy overal not too dissimilar to the gfs. meh. It was fun while it lasted. Lets wait for the sref and nam to cave at 230 and 3 respectively And if they don't cave ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NEXT!(Which quite possibly will be december, 2013) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And if they don't cave ? then they dont...but it doesnt give me any confidence that they are more correct. Id blend 85/15 euro with nam/sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro looks similiar to the 0z run Agree , some weenie wrote it was better at 30 hrs , glad you cleared that up for me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And if they don't cave ? Ull still get the' its nowcast time because the models arent seeing the storm clearly ; crowd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But you do realize a half inch of precip spread out over 48 hours with marginal temps would most likely not yield 3 to 6"? We would not see the dynamic evaporational cooling and accumulations would be slushy during times of steadier/more moderate precipitation. It would be showery rain/nonaccumulating snow for most of the day. The absolute furthest thing from exciting-I'd rather have 60 and sunny. If the front end doesn't happen tomorrow night, as far as I'm concerned the chances for accumulating snow are quite slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Regardless of the model mayhem today I'd say that the area avg around .5-.6 so 3-6 inches is the way to go No one is getting 6" in the nyc area from this storm.. Maybe 3" in places that don't mix.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 9z SREF mean plume snowfall shows 10.8" at KLGA Taking away the highest outlier (24.74" lol) and the lowest outlier (1.26") still yields an impressive mean of 9.9" http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130305&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Can you explain how to use this tool? Been trying to figure it out, but I am having no luck. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's absolutely correct. Would yield dusting to 3" at best. WX/PT would likely yield zero on anything but grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.