WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM has the norlun like the Euro does http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html thats the best the GGEM has looked all along...weird evolution of precip..rain to mix to snow to rain to mix to snow to rain Slushy mess ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ya there was one major difference though with 2/5/10 and that is the op run. The op run never got this juiced up under 72 hours. Had some precip but not the 1.25+ we saw yesterday. It was always the GEFS that continued to hint at the possibility. End result may not be to dissimilar unfortunately though I cant say I remember the actual model runs...I do remember the gfs ens and they were all identical (like yesterday's ens members were) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ill laugh alot if the euro switches places with the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I cant say I remember the actual model runs...I do remember the gfs ens and they were all identical (like yesterday's ens members were) I just remember the op was a graze maybe like a qtr to half in or so while the ens suggested it Might be triple that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But I will all but guarantee, come next event, and the euro shows nada but the GFS/ens show a hit, we will rinse wash repeat... Nope, I've learned my lesson, anything NECP is on autotoss until EURO supports it. forecasting 100% EURO from now out, rip and read and expect that. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So to recap so far: 09z SREF - Great 12z NAM - Great 12z GFS - Bad 12z GEFS - Terrible 12z Canadian - Not great but okay 12z Ukie - Bad 12z NAVGEM - Bad 12z ECMWF - My guess is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 bust how?! Seems like a premature statement! The GFS goes from 1.5" of QPF for MANY runs in a row to basically nothing. That, to me, is a bust regardless of the outcome. I mean...the EURO quite simply is the superior model. Yes it trended north, but we've gotten so used to expecting wild shifts on the American models right upto and even during events. It's really incredible and actually really disappointing. Yes it's not a perfect science but to have no idea if we'll get a blizzard or just some rain 24 hours before the event based on American models is sickening isn't it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The GFS goes from 1.5" of QPF for MANY runs in a row to basically nothing. That, to me, is a bust regardless of the outcome. how is a models output a bust... the model sucks to epic proportions LOL Lets lean on the EURO in an hour whatever it shows will probably dictate what we will receive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well there is some positive news, 12z SUNY MM5 coming in more amped AT 5H and the surface than the 0z run through 36 hrs. 0z run had 1-1.25" total QPF0Z 45 HRS:12z 33 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 that isnt what is unbelievable...fool me once shame of you, fool me twice shame on me (i.e. you)...well, we are on fool me 100,000 times Thats what i've been saying for weeks!! looks like my guess of pretty much nothing is coming true...maybe i should create my own model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So to recap so far: 09z SREF - Great 12z NAM - Great 12z GFS - Bad 12z GEFS - Terrible 12z Canadian - Not great but okay 12z Ukie - Bad 12z NAVGEM - Bad 12z ECMWF - My guess is bad. It's kind of funny that it would probably be reversed to the general public what we view as bad they would view as excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So to recap so far:09z SREF - Great12z NAM - Great12z GFS - Bad12z GEFS - Terrible12z Canadian - Not great but okay12z Ukie - Bad12z NAVGEM - Bad12z ECMWF - My guess is bad. It's kind of funny that it would probably be reversed to the general public what we view as bad they would view as excellent. Hahaha true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 bust how?! Seems like a premature statement! Not at all, I just got back from Friday morning in my time machine and apparently no one in the Upton area got a flake but both Boston and DC saw 18 inches. I really think some of the people in the subforum think a model run is a time machine. Use climo, and based on the likely low placement there will be a ccb over or area for at least some time. As it is overnight and with a NE flow even coastal areas will see a couple inches. Not historic but not a bust either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well there is some positive news, 12z SUNY MM5 coming in more amped AT 5H and the surface than the 0z run through 36 hrs. 0z run had 1-1.25" total QPF 0Z 45 HRS: 12z 33 hrs: This isn't really the MM5's range. Tonight it should be more useful. A storm that develops too early and yet develops too late. When's the last time that happened to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I find it rather weird that this storm is trending more southeast since all the members of the GFS had a good hit. How is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I just remember the op was a graze maybe like a qtr to half in or so while the ens suggested it Might be triple that by color codes, i remember the south shore of LI was in the light purple...which is 1.50-1.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well there is some positive news, 12z SUNY MM5 coming in more amped AT 5H and the surface than the 0z run through 36 hrs. 0z run had 1-1.25" total QPF 0Z 45 HRS: 12z 33 hrs: I will say the MM5 clearly, crystal clearly, showed the warm tongue over Nassau county during the Feb blizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well there is some positive news, 12z SUNY MM5 coming in more amped AT 5H and the surface than the 0z run through 36 hrs. 0z run had 1-1.25" total QPF 0Z 45 HRS: 12z 33 hrs: It is very unlikely for the mm5 to be vastly different from the nam at this juncture. I believe it's run off the same or similar grids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I will say the MM5 clearly, crystal clearly, showed the warm tongue over Nassau county during the Feb blizzard... Yup nearly perfectly 24-36 hrs out i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I will say the MM5 clearly, crystal clearly, showed the warm tongue over Nassau county during the Feb blizzard... It was really good with the Feb blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I find it rather weird that this storm is trending more southeast since all the members of the GFS had a good hit. How is that possible? Todays 6z Ensmbles completely flipped in its 12 for 12 scenario , It slides east then refires NE of us . We may wind up in the middle . You`re buddy JB just wrote that 2 mins ago . Theres one bullet left in you`re gun and its an hour and half away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It is very unlikely for the mm5 to be vastly different from the nam at this juncture. I believe it's run off the same or similar grids That is true however last night's run had considerably less QPF than the 0Z NAM...so it's a positive sign if nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm going to hunch a guess here just from my gut - that this storm is going to disappoint many of us, myself included for the NYC area. It seems we cannot catch a break. If it's south, it stays cold and we get a light snow event because there won't be much snow. If it goes north, temps will be an issue and we get no snow, but flooding rains and wind. I would much prefer a light snow to event than to a heavy rain event. We simply cannot afford this kind of storm so soon after Sandy. I would also like to remind people that if you, in any way shape or form, talk about the March 2001 storm while discussing a future threat, you bring out its curse. This is almost as bad as the radio show curse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 50 minutes from now we should know everything we need to know one way or the other... If EURO is a miss, it's over. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Correct if I wrong but you would think with the technology these days the American models should be much more reliable. The global models have always had an upper hand on us and its getting unbearable. Something really needs to change and if it doesn't they should just get rid of them and just have the EURO run twice a day and base our forecast on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 50 minutes from now we should know everything we need to know one way or the other... If EURO is a miss, it's over. -skisheep That's what we should have been doing 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 that isnt what is unbelievable...fool me once shame of you, fool me twice shame on me (i.e. you)...well, we are on fool me 100,000 times And if the euro comes in with 1"+ of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And if the euro comes in with 1"+ of precip? I'd put a lot more creditability in it then any other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Its just so hard to dismiss the continuity of the nam and srefs. 45 minutes until suicide or mayhem..lol When do the next srefs come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 50 minutes from now we should know everything we need to know one way or the other... If EURO is a miss, it's over. -skisheep You think it will be that simple? It will probably show something somewhere in between the other models leaving us more confused than we are now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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