SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 In times like these you go with consistency. The NAM and the SREF's haven't backed off in days. You want to go ahead and go with the GFS camp go right ahead, but I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the basket that has changed so dramatically in the last 24 hours when I have other models that have been consistent. For all of us on this board I hope that you are right, but the GFS hadn't backed off in days either, and look at what just happened. NAM and SREF's have both been abysmal this winter, and until proven otherwise, I see no reason to go with them when they have no support. If it's the EURO, ride it all the way, but the NAM and SREFS do not have that seal of approval as a result of their record this winter. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 From Mitchell Gaines 33 minutes ago in the Philly forum, NWS employee in Mount Holly: GFS has massive feedback issues in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No - he said the euro didnt really trend north...he was wrong about to some extent, but he is going to be right about the eventual outcome...without the Euro showing a "real" storm this was never a serious threat... now we just gotta hope it stays far enough away to spare the shoreline and keep the rain away. Funny that its Friday morning so we already know that storm did not happen... Model hugging on steroids... One bad run of the GFS and the storm is not happening. I cant wait for the Euro to come on board and its going to be mayhem in here. And keeping the storm away from the coast is not going to happen, not that it matters this never was or will be anything more then a run of the mill nor easter. Maybe some water on the streets in Freeport and thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the GFS is overcorrecting to an extent but this scenario was always worrisome for us. At least the model looks like it's cooling down so we have a shot at salvaging what we can as snow. But with light rates it might not accumulate. That run verbatim was just awful for most of us. It somehow manages to be developed too early and in true winter 12-13 fashion, develop too late!! Yup - i wasnt really vested in this one from the get go. A trio or SREF/GFS/NAM never really lit my fire. Like you my suspicion is that even though the euro shows .5-.75 the rates will be lighter and it will either be rain or very very wet snow (for us on the South shore)...PASS on this. 65 and sun please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Much of that was thu into fri where the euro rotated some precip back into the region (interesting trend) Yeah huge difference between .5-.75" in an 8 hour span overnight and stretched out over 48 hours with temps mostly staying above freezing that whole time and precip mostly on the light side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On the feedback issue...everything was status quo with the GFS until it showed that blob of precip last night and has continued that theme although in a different spot today. I could almost have predicted it was gonna show an odd solution at hr 24 or 27 when it showed a split in the main precip shield with blobs of heavy qpf moving way east. What effect this has in the end who knows but for several runs its seemed to suffer form the convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yup - i wasnt really vested in this one from the get go. A trio or SREF/GFS/NAM never really lit my fire. Like you my suspicion is that even though the euro shows .5-.75 the rates will be lighter and it will either be rain or very very wet snow (for us on the South shore)...PASS on this. 65 and sun please. You might get your wish...12z GFS shows 850 temps approaching +10c next Monday. Then gets cold after that as -NAO reloads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM has the norlun like the Euro does http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yup - i wasnt really vested in this one from the get go. A trio or SREF/GFS/NAM never really lit my fire. Like you my suspicion is that even though the euro shows .5-.75 the rates will be lighter and it will either be rain or very very wet snow (for us on the South shore)...PASS on this. 65 and sun please. 65 and sun is a pipe dream at the moment. It doesn't look like we get into nice spring weather for the foreseeable future, at least if you are to believe the GEFS euro ensembles and the teleconnectors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On the feedback issue...everything was status quo with the GFS until it showed that blob of precip last night and has continued that theme although in a different spot today. I could almost have predicted it was gonna show an odd solution at hr 24 or 27 when it showed a split in the main precip shield with blobs of heavy qpf moving way east. What effect this has in the end who knows but for several runs its seemed to suffer form the convective feedback issues. I think that's a factor but given that the Euro seemed to have the same idea with destroying the front end of precip and banding for us, it might not be too far off. The SE trend on the upper low is definitely concerning as well. We need the Euro to hold on or get stronger with that batch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On the feedback issue...everything was status quo with the GFS until it showed that blob of precip last night and has continued that theme although in a different spot today. I could almost have predicted it was gonna show an odd solution at hr 24 or 27 when it showed a split in the main precip shield with blobs of heavy qpf moving way east. What effect this has in the end who knows but for several runs its seemed to suffer form the convective feedback issues. The mets down in the Philly forum are stating that it's one of the reasons why it doesn't show a CCB developing like the rest of the guidance. They also think that the Euro shows this as well to some extent, but not as much as the GFS which is why the Euro is still able to get a good CCB cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 RGEM total qpf thru 48. (8AM thu) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM has the norlun like the Euro does http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Would hate to rely on that but it's certainly a bit of good news on a day where things aren't trending very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM has rain to snow for the area. It did trend southeast. Then rain to a mix with the norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hi Res Nam at 45 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the storm trends se even more, would that increase the chance of a Norlun over our area instead of further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You might get your wish...12z GFS shows 850 temps approaching +10c next Monday. Then gets cold after that as -NAO reloads obviously, I will be in Orlando for business sunday thru weds of next week..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS look equally as terrible as the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ya earthlight I was about to post lol if its even possible they look worse haha. Such a joke of a model. Yesterday that GEFS were painting 1.5 + for the region. Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM has the norlun like the Euro does http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html thats the best the GGEM has looked all along...weird evolution of precip..rain to mix to snow to rain to mix to snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM has rain to snow for the area. It did trend southeast. Then rain to a mix with the norlun. Keep in mind also that what we get from any Norlun or backlash would fall during the day and be less likely to stick just from that, not to mention light rates. We really need more to happen tomorrow night. I'm still optimistic that the GFS is too light on the commahead band due to its continuing feedback issues. You can see how it starts to disappear once the diamond shaped QPF bomb forms out over the Gulf Stream. That's almost definitely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 24 on the 12z GEFS, low is centered over the VA Capes and sliding eastward over the southern Delmarva. Light precip into the area through hr 36. Hour 42 it's sliding east. Around 0.10-0.25"+ areawide. Next to nothing in terms of snowfall. The surface is warm for everyone. That seconday QPF max out east was present again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ya earthlight I was about to post lol if its even possible they look worse haha. Such a joke of a model. Yesterday that GEFS were painting 1.5 + for the region. Oops any model/ens group that was stubborn enough on Feb 5th 2010 to project 1.50" up to NYC (not 18 hrs before the event or lack thereof) only to get ZERO is a waste of taxpayer dollars...it has always been crappy in these situation (strong displaced block)...im pretty sure i brought this up 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 How anyone can anyone hang on the SREFs? They have been nothing short of awful this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS is more south and east. Not impressive at all. It's unbelieveable how the models changed from one day to another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But I will all but guarantee, come next event, and the euro shows nada but the GFS/ens show a hit, we will rinse wash repeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 any model/ens group that was stubborn enough on Feb 5th 2010 to project 1.50" up to NYC (not 18 hrs before the event or lack thereof) only to get ZERO is a waste of taxpayer dollars...it has always been crappy in these situation (strong displaced block)...im pretty sure i brought this up 3 days ago. Ya there was one major difference though with 2/5/10 and that is the op run. The op run never got this juiced up under 72 hours. Had some precip but not the 1.25+ we saw yesterday. It was always the GEFS that continued to hint at the possibility. End result may not be to dissimilar unfortunately though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS is more south and east. Not impressive at all. It's unbelieveable how the models changed from one day to another. Its impossible to take models seriously and it's incredibly difficult to make an accurate forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS is more south and east. Not impressive at all. It's unbelieveable how the models changed from one day to another. that isnt what is unbelievable...fool me once shame of you, fool me twice shame on me (i.e. you)...well, we are on fool me 100,000 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 bust how?! Seems like a premature statement! The GFS goes from 1.5" of QPF for MANY runs in a row to basically nothing. That, to me, is a bust regardless of the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.