earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's a tick or two away from looking like the GFS with the interaction between the main shortwave over the Mid Atlantic and the piece of the elongated ULL to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Through hr 45, measureable precip is well south of the area. DC area getting hit hard. Surface low is right on the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles did come north. It's a two part system really. Over a 36 hr period. But are way north then 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 rh map shows a MUCH better orientation on 18z at 45 compared to 51 at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks rather North at 48 to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 And 51... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 at 48 precip is beginning. Trough is negative. Everything looks further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's definitely a good bit farther northwest than the 12z run. The RH/UVV maps are pretty encouraging at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Preciep at 48 is about 100 miles north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 48 storm is moving ENE and about to clear the southern VA coast. Precip knocking on the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Now we have good lift and dynamics getting into the area at 51 hours. This run looks to be a big improvement for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 By hour 54 we're into the moderate snow. The surface freezing line is NW of the area but crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 wouldnt the distance from the mid-level centers be a detriment from getting into the best dynamics? It was the same issue in Dec 1992, elevation areas snowed and low lying places got very little snow except on the back end...like that storm this can easily be a 34-36 degree rain/wind event. There is one major diffrence. Water temps are 10-15 degrees colder in early March then December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 54 heavy qpf in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks a little better a 500mb. Slightly more room for even more negative tilting of the trof axis. Gives the SLP a chance to gain latitude and midlevels a chance to rotate more precip in later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 by 54, 0.5 line is already up to sandy hook, and we are snowing (presumably) moderately. This would be 7pm wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 surely into the CCB areawide by 54. This is going to be a NICE hit on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 57 heavy snow NYC west. We are getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 it continues at 57, and if anything is getting heavier as more and more energy gets entrained. Looks pretty sweet although warmish out east by the twin forks. freezing line continues to move SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 hr 60 is pure beauty. Heavy snow...0.5 line in 6 hrs up to parts of LI and extreme SE queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NJ into NYC is getting crushed at hour 60. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 By hour 60 the CCB is overhead with the surface freezing line about to clear the coast. Big hit for areas west of the city. Track of the low itself is way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Through hr 60 1-4" of snow for everyone already areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Tears of joy. Let it happen please: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 accum precip by 60 is 1.0 from CNJ to sandy hook touching the south shore of LI whilst we pour snow in the ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I heard that the 12z Euro Ensembles have around 0.75-1 inch of liquid for NJ into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 And this is getting into a more reliable timeframe for the NAM... nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 by the way guys, talking about temps and snow maps is irrelevant and we know that. That is dynamics driven heavy snow in the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks pretty cold on the 18z NAM....freezing line at surface crashes while 850s and 540 line stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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