96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It is just so hard to buy into any storm without the Euro. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can someone with knowledge provide some analysis of why the GFS changed course so drastically, i.e. what changed from its previous runs that would lead to this solution rather than the solutions it had been showing for multiple runs? It seems like as the low gets into southeast VA, it goes through a weird transition phase. THe law occludes, gets vertically stacked, then redevelops east, and as that whole process is going on the vvs and ccb just fall apart. This kills its foreward momentum and by the time it gets fired up again its shifted out east. I could see how/why this could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I saw no mention of the 00z JMA so I'll post it. It was still a major hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Full phase with that northern S/W this run but occurs late so that it hits DC then skips over us and hits Boston as the phase tugs the low back NW at the last minute most of the models have clearly been showing this for 2 days (as I pointed out yesterday AM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 subtract the god awful NAM and SREF's and all models are south-ish.... they have been the most consistent ... they arent going to be wrong with every storm ... No they haven't, the Euro just about has never wavered once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT should be claiming victory at any moment if he hasn't done so already lol. He was blatantly denying that models were trending north. This isn't a win for him. I will say, the SE trend with the initial 500mb low/energy is becoming concerning. If the Euro shows a similar shift SE it might almost be time to call it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 subtract the god awful NAM and SREF's and all models are south-ish.... That's been the theme this year. NECP ramps up way NW the pulls back at last second inside 24 - 36. Euro, whether wacky or not outside of 36, has been the most consistent model inside of 36 - 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No they haven't, the Euro just about has never wavered once. Um no, the EURO came hundreds of miles north from 0z monday to 0z tuesday, took BOS from nothing to 2"+, and here from nothing to .5" or so. Not a huge shift for here, but for BOS it went from nothing to a blizzard. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We have the night crew telling everybody we are going to get Crushed and the day crew telling its going out to sea. You got to laugh thank God its only the weather and only thing you can do is watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No they haven't, the Euro just about has never wavered once. Until at 0z when it showed a couple of inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 they have been the most consistent ... they arent going to be wrong with every storm ... ill take the bet every time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 they have been the most consistent ... they arent going to be wrong with every storm ... I think the models could be better but it is really our interpretations of what they are saying that is most deficient. We could see all along that there was no consensus for a blockbuster storm here, and we can still see that. That does not mean there won't be one, but it certainly means it's unlikely. On the other hand, we can see that we may yet get a significant event but we just do not know how significant. Should we be able to know how significant at this juncture? Probably. But when there are so many vorts and shortwaves playing into the outcome, it is going to be more challenging and we should be cautious in not going off of the deep end. It has been obvious that there would be some rain mixing in with this unless there was terrific intensity and it now appears that there will be less intensity or a shorter duration of intensity. So, the lower amounts of wet snow--a dusting to 3" or in some areas 2-5/3-6" wet snow primarily on grassy surfaces is still a good bet, but not a certainty! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 FWIW, it looks like GFS is .5 on the nose for NYC, happens to match Euro to a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro more than wavered. For like 10 runs in a row it had either no precip or less than 0.1. Then all of a sudden the next two runs increase precip 5-10 times how is that NOT wavering? This is regardless of the final solution, bc in the end the euro could still be right initially with its idea of little precip up here, but it absolutely 100% wavered. And this isn't subjective it's a fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 He was blatantly denying that models were trending north. This isn't a win for him. I will say, the SE trend with the initial 500mb low/energy is becoming concerning. If the Euro shows a similar shift SE it might almost be time to call it done. No - he said the euro didnt really trend north...he was wrong about to some extent, but he is going to be right about the eventual outcome...without the Euro showing a "real" storm this was never a serious threat... now we just gotta hope it stays far enough away to spare the shoreline and keep the rain away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We have the night crew telling everybody we are going to get Crushed and the day crew telling its going out to sea. You got to laugh thank God its only the weather and only thing you can do is watch. Those of us that are on these boards all season long realize that what one model run gives, another can take away. Yesterday the models trended very favorably. Overnight things were still looking good but the writing was on the wall so to speak as the GFS began ticking southeast. I still think things will correct back northwest some. This is all just noise and the final solution is probably very similar to the SREF which would make most of us very happy. Waiting on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's been the theme FOREVER. NECP ramps up way NW the pulls back at last second inside 24 - 36. Euro, whether wacky or not outside of 36, has been the most consistent model inside of 36 - 48h. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When do the GEFS come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro more than wavered. What model data are you guys looking at. For like 10 runs in a row it had either no precip of less than 0.1. Then all of a sudden the next two runs increase precip 5-10 times how is that NOT wavering? This is regardless of the final solution, bc in the end the euro could still be right initially with its idea of little precip up here, but it absolutely 100% wavered. And this isn't subjective it's a fact The mistake is buying what each model is saying literally as "the one". The models should be used as guidance to a forecast, not the forecast itself. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No - he said the euro didnt really trend north...he was wrong about to some extent, but he is going to be right about the eventual outcome...without the Euro showing a "real" storm this was never a serious threat... now we just gotta hope it stays far enough away to spare the shoreline and keep the rain away. Ace we haven't seen the 12z solution yet and 0z had around 6incjes for NYC so I think we should wait before we start making proclamations like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And if the Euro looks anything like the JMA ,there will be 3 pages of OMG s 2 hours ,and this gets answered once and for all ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 FWIW, it looks like GFS is .5 on the nose for NYC, happens to match Euro to a T. 0z Euro was closer to .75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Those of us that are on these boards all season long realize that what one model run gives, another can take away. Yesterday the models trended very favorably. Overnight things were still looking good but the writing was on the wall so to speak as the GFS began ticking southeast. I still think things will correct back northwest some. This is all just noise and the final solution is probably very similar to the SREF which would make most of us very happy. Waiting on the GEFS. the SREF? That was more amped than the GFS ever was, even more than the NAM now is. That to me is the last model that I'm basing a forecast on in light of the trends today, and I think it has little to no hope of verifying. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the SREF? That was more amped than the GFS ever was, even more than the NAM now is. That to me is the last model that I'm basing a forecast on in light of the trends today, and I think it has little to no hope of verifying. -skisheep In times like these you go with consistency. The NAM and the SREF's haven't backed off in days. You want to go ahead and go with the GFS camp go right ahead, but I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the basket that has changed so dramatically in the last 24 hours when I have other models that have been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro more than wavered. For like 10 runs in a row it had either no precip or less than 0.1. Then all of a sudden the next two runs increase precip 5-10 times how is that NOT wavering? This is regardless of the final solution, bc in the end the euro could still be right initially with its idea of little precip up here, but it absolutely 100% wavered. And this isn't subjective it's a fact 100pct. However, one is a high impact waver and the Euro is a low impact waver. What's worse a model showing 2"qpf and then it cuts back to less than .5" or a model going from from .1 to .5, and the increases have been slow and steady? There is no question which is the better model, yesterday,last year, last decade, today and forever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 FWIW, it looks like GFS is .5 on the nose for NYC, happens to match Euro to a T. Yeah but its spread out over 48 hours and all light. We don't see more than .1" in under 6 hours during any period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No - he said the euro didnt really trend north...he was wrong about to some extent, but he is going to be right about the eventual outcome...without the Euro showing a "real" storm this was never a serious threat... now we just gotta hope it stays far enough away to spare the shoreline and keep the rain away. I think the GFS is overcorrecting to an extent but this scenario was always worrisome for us. At least the model looks like it's cooling down so we have a shot at salvaging what we can as snow. But with light rates it might not accumulate. That run verbatim was just awful for most of us. It somehow manages to be developed too early and in true winter 12-13 fashion, develop too late!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z NAVGEM about 25 miles further east compared with its 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0z Euro was closer to .75" Much of that was thu into fri where the euro rotated some precip back into the region (interesting trend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When do the GEFS come out? 11:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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