jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's been ticking south and east at H5 each run. Surface is slowly responding to that. Let me guess-it has a big convective blob develop east of NC and pull east, causing the precip up here to shear out to nothing, and then there's the insane maxes near DC and BOS. Not saying it's entirely wrong but it's had this problem before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not surprised to see the GFS tick southeast. So far the theme with the 12z suite has been for a slight tick further south. We'll know a lot more around 1:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 RGEM has shifted pretty far south and east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 good thing the NAM is more accurate then GFS within 36 hours. GFS led us to the Northern scenario, now NAM takes over. Sorry RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Full phase with that northern S/W this run but occurs late so that it hits DC then skips over us and hits Boston as the phase tugs the low back NW at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The major difference that I see between the NAM and the GFS are that the GFS tries to phase in that last piece of northern stream energy beginning at hour 42. The NAM allows that energy to escape and keep the storm more in tact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS really needs to be fixed... 24 hours ago it was showing a bomb now 24 later it has us getting 2-4 inches if that.... EURO at 1 will be tell tale I think if it comes north more to match the ensembles and control run this event will produce. But as of right now I wouldnt expect more than 3-6 inches will room for up or down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 RGEM has shifted pretty far south and east as well. This is starting to look like a slap on our face, like the EURO telling us.. "don't you learn, if I say no, is no" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think it was jm that explained it well....we seem to definitely be in between the two big qpf areas....not a good thing for us an it is becoming more and more apparent on all of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is starting to look like a slap on our face, like the EURO telling us.. "don't you learn, if I say no, is no" but honestly the EURO overnight was too bad... still wouldnt of been a moderate snowfall for most... was very cold as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Full phase with that northern S/W this run but occurs late so that it hits DC then skips over us and hits Boston as the phase tugs the low back NW at the last minute Exactly what one of my main worries is and I even saw some signs of it on the NAM. This is a plausible scenario-that the storm essentially skips over us after nailing DC and then nails Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I wrote sunday nite here when the GFS advertised this at 0z Sunday nite , it weakened it SE once off the MA coast , and then bombed in back out over NE The jump threat was there since then , not saying its correct , but the 0z EURO control run does this to some extend too this morning only the NAM ans SREF paste the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 but honestly the EURO overnight was too bad... still wouldnt of been a moderate snowfall for most... was very cold as well The Euro did trend north last night by a good margin, but never showed a major hit here for many days now. Now the GFS and all the models are trending south. If these solutions are correct I have to give the Euro the most credibility. We will see at 1pm what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Exactly what one of my main worries is and I even saw some signs of it on the NAM. This is a plausible scenario-that the storm essentially skips over us after nailing DC and then nails Boston. The storm doesn't "jump" over us. The storm track takes the initial shot of precip to our south. Then as the storm comes north a bit the precip wraps back in and nails us. That's what will bring the goods. If we have to just rely on the initial shot of precip moving by to the south it's not going to be a good end result. It was encouraging to see that the NAM/SREF's held serve and that the Euro has trended more towards the NCEP models the last two runs. I agree, it's a forecasting nightmare. Three completely seperate camps here 24-36 hours out. I think if you're the NWS you need watches for a good portion of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Euro did trend north last night by a good margin, but never showed a major hit here for many days now. Now the GFS and all the models are trending south. If these solutions are correct I have to give the Euro the most credibility. We will see at 1pm what it shows. fully agree... if the NAM,SREFS and EURO (becomes on our side) i would say that 3-6 to 4-8 is a good bet for the area. The GFS is always the last to realize what the hell is going on from having to losing to having it; it really is ridiculous. I guess we will see @ 1-1:15pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro did have a couple of inches, and did come North like 300 miles in 48hrs, But GFS wow! Way to go with being inconsistent. She did this with NE Blizzard as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And here we go. Apparently ukie is south east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro did have a couple of inches, and did come North like 300 miles in 48hrs, But GFS wow! Way to go with being inconsistent. She did this with NE Blizzard as well. Crazy thing is that the GFS WAS VERY consistent ! Then all of a sudden said...."um cancel that" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The storm doesn't "jump" over us. The storm track takes the initial shot of precip to our south. Then as the storm comes north a bit the precip wraps back in and nails us. That's what will bring the goods. If we have to just rely on the initial shot of precip moving by to the south it's not going to be a good end result. It was encouraging to see that the NAM/SREF's held serve and that the Euro has trended more towards the NCEP models the last two runs. I agree, it's a forecasting nightmare. Three completely seperate camps here 24-36 hours out. I think if you're the NWS you need watches for a good portion of the area. You're right-the better term is that it goes around us, due to the 500mb low continuing to trend south, and then the phasing in of northern stream energy enhances the precip for New England. I doubt it's as extreme as the GFS is trying to paint it but IMO it happens to some extent. We need the 500mb low to stay north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the GFS solution were to verify it wouldn't come as a surprise to the masses, as this storm was never hyped up as a huge snowmaker on TV for our area too much....same with boston I disagree, this storm has been hyped since late last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You know it really bothered me that the Canadian ensembles have been a complete miss the past few days. I'm anxious to see the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You guys still have time to ride down to DC.. just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT should be claiming victory at any moment if he hasn't done so already lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It just amazes me how inaccurate the models are within 1 to 2 days of a storm. Like shouldn't they be far more technologically advanced than this. The Euro is actually looking pretty good once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT should be claiming victory at any moment if he hasn't done so already lol. well i think it should be advisable that he waits until 1:30 to see the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm glad I never vested much into this storm. Was hoping all along to see DC get hit good. Even with a shift north, Euro was 4" best S and E of NYC. I think .4 to 75. QPF is where this thing will end up Snow or Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It just amazes me how inaccurate the models are within 1 to 2 days of a storm. Like shouldn't they be far more technologically advanced than this. The Euro is actually looking pretty good once again. We see this all the time. It's usually the other way around where the Euro is showing a good storm and the GFS is still lost 36 hours out. This time it was the reverse. I think it's way too early to be claiming which model had the best idea. So far the NAM/SREF's have been the only really consistent models. The fact that yesterday the GEFS were 12/12 I think led everyone to believe that the GFS was on to something. This would be a huge defeat for NCEP if this ends up being a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 subtract the god awful NAM and SREF's and all models are south-ish.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 subtract the god awful NAM and SREF's and all models are south-ish.... they have been the most consistent ... they arent going to be wrong with every storm ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 fully agree... if the NAM,SREFS and EURO (becomes on our side) i would say that 3-6 to 4-8 is a good bet for the area. The GFS is always the last to realize what the hell is going on from having to losing to having it; it really is ridiculous. I guess we will see @ 1-1:15pm. that is right - it is now realizing that its idea of a closer to the coast scenario was wrong and its correcting itself. The euro had the "right-ish" idea all along...its a scapper...and because of that most will not get an accumulating snow (if the GFS has finally caught on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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