WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Banding much lighter and less expansive compared to its previous runs at the same timeframes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 36 CCB taking over. Moderate precip just south of MMU. light snow north of that. Surface freezing line is hanging out in Orange County but coming south. Where is MMU?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We're still getting pretty good northern stream interaction. I really don't see any significant changes or red flags that would set off the alerts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Where is MMU?? Morristown, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Banding much lighter and less expansive compared to its previous runs at the same timeframes NAM always overdoes QPF and then has to cut down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Very nice band on hi res NAM coming up through S NJ and SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 39 is a nice hit. Surface freezing line crashing towards the coast. Currently drapped over the city and I-95. Precip is a bit lighter than you would want on the NW side of things but that's too be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Seeing the NAM finally come more to reality with the ridiculous warmth and precip it printed out. I just hope it doesn't go to the dual-max QPF look. I wouldn't be too concerned unless the precip shield shunted notably SE. That ridiculous banding and 2"+ QPFs just weren't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 By the looks of it, it seems the idea like the idea of us being in between the two QPF maxes is becoming likely. Even the NAM at 42 hours sim radar shows it clearly. Heavy precip still down near DC, light into NYC and drying up from the west quicker, with heavy precip already well into BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM always overdoes QPF and then has to cut down... I see no significant changes regarding QPF. I would be worried if I lived out near the NJ/PA border but then again that region always is on the cusp with coastals. Everyone from MMU east does really well. Hr 42 has moderate snow over the area. I'm sure the high res simulated radars will continue to look impressive. Through hr 45 everyone south of KMMU has 0.50-0.75"+. I touch more for the city and south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 By the looks of it, it seems the idea like the idea of us being in between the two QPF maxes is becoming likely. Even the NAM at 42 hours sim radar shows it clearly. Heavy precip still down near DC, light into NYC and drying up from the west quicker, with heavy precip already well into BOS At 42 hrs .75 to Monmouth cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Of importance the freezing line heads east of prior runs and runs through queens and Brooklyn. Not nearly as much warm air and obviously a more realistic scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 30 hi res sim radar very heavy band of snow hammering DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 45 still getting good wrap around snows. The surface freezing line is now east of the city. The city especially and immediate western burbs getting it good. Simulated high res radars actually look better than you would expect. Has measurable precip getting here by 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Very nice hit on the NAM, definitely a solid 8-12" event. It lessened the warmth but the 850mb freezing line does start moving west at hour 48. Damage has been done, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 45 still getting good wrap around snows. The surface freezing line is now east of the city. The city especially and immediate western burbs getting it good. Simulated high res radars actually look better than you would expect. Has measurable precip getting here by 15z. That makes this a 15 hour storm and Ill take that every day of the wk and twice on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And....SUPERBAND at 33 hours hi res sim walloping DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks indeed like the NAM is going with the dual-QPF max look. Luckily it's the NAM but other models are going with it also. That could be a significant fly in the ointment for snow here, if we're stuck with relatively weak stuff in between the two maxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 through HR 48, the entire metro area is .75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 At 51 1.0 line up to NYC. Still precipitating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Over an inch of liquid and much colder...I don't see anything worth complaining about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks indeed like the NAM is going with the dual-QPF max look. Luckily it's the NAM but other models are going with it also. That could be a significant fly in the ointment for snow here, if we're stuck with relatively weak stuff in between the two maxes. Dude we get over 1" QPF on this run. What are you complaining about? 850s and 2m temps ticked east, which is most important for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the thing about this storm it just sits there according to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DE gets absolutely crushed at HR 33 on the 4KM NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 45 still getting good wrap around snows. The surface freezing line is now east of the city. The city especially and immediate western burbs getting it good. Simulated high res radars actually look better than you would expect. Has measurable precip getting here by 15z. At 48 hrs 1.25 precip up to Monmouth cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 48 everyone from Passaic County NJ eastward getting hammered as the wrap around snows come back in and reinforce the CCB. By hr 51 the surface freezing line starts heading back northwest but I really wouldn't worry about it too much. The QPF was cut to about 0.50-0.75"+ NW of the city. The city itself is still in excess of 1". The real cutoff doesn't begin until you get about 75 miles NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Very nice hit on the NAM, definitely a solid 8-12" event. It lessened the warmth but the 850mb freezing line does start moving west at hour 48. Damage has been done, however. It was easy to see that the models were too warm yesterday with the temps on NNE winds. GFS looks like it bombed the thermal aspects of it like it normally does. Now we just need as much of this as possible to be at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 6z is not really a good basis of comparison. Not sure that ever had a chance of verifying. Aloft, the 12z run actually looked better. The 500mb low was a tad further north, and it was not as cut off from the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 10-30 miles NW of the city looks like they get 1-1.25" QPF as snow/mostly snow before any possible mix/change as the precip ends a hour 54 and on... 8-12" is pretty close to probably what it is going to show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dude we get over 1" QPF on this run. What are you complaining about? 850s and 2m temps ticked east, which is most important for you. This. Who cares if DC and BOS get 2 feet, on this run, we get close to a foot of snow, and that's nothing to complain about whatsoever, and I don't think there is a single member of the forum who wouldn't take the NAM right now if they could gaurentee that this would verify, or press their luck. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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