SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I really laugh when I read *this was never a nyc special*.. what? Sne was out the game a few hours ago. And they have high qpf. It was never a sne storm ..or was it? No, it wasn't a SNE storm until recently, but everything this year has worked it's way up there at one time or another. they also have better elevation in many spots, so temps are less of an issue, plue they are more north. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1.75" line kissing the city on the 09z SREF's. 1.25"+ for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It looks like around 1.5" for NYC. Over 1.75 to Western LI. Wow. Something has to give between the SREF/NAM camp and the GFS / Euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 09z SREF's indicate mostly snow for 90% of us. The only area that briefly changes over is Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow. Something has to give between the SREF/NAM camp and the GFS / Euro camp. I think they meet in the middle as we have seen before, but gosh wouldn't it be nice if the SREF's were right, foot plus for everyone on this forum... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the SREF is showing 1.50 QPF I would expexct the NAM to look as beefy as well at 12z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 High bust potential with this one, if BL temps drop faster or it's colder overall, then forecast amounts could go way up. Again that's why our early November storm and late October storm 2011 took us and the public by surprise when temps dropped off faster than we thought and we received more snow than expected. I fully anticipate the same and am confident because we don't have a primary low that allows warmth to come in from the ocean like with the February storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 6z GFS ensembles were ugly in terms of snowfall, slamming areas west of DC and then all of New England. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zsnowf072.html and yet taunton VERY bullish on Euro and discounting the wetter Gfs/ Nam .. they dont even hv watches up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the SREF is showing 1.50 QPF I would expexct the NAM to look as beefy as well at 12z . I always looked at it from the other direction, that the SREF reacted to the prior NAM run, and was the last set of the suite, so if the 6z NAM was nice, the 9z SREF would be nice. NAM was warm at 6z, so suprised to see the SREF so cold. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think they meet in the middle as we have seen before, but gosh wouldn't it be nice if the SREF's were right, foot plus for everyone on this forum... -skisheep Agreed. Would love to see a NW move at this point but as you and Earthlight alluded to, odds are that thr SREF and nam capitulate a bit. Still psyched to be tracking something like this at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Here's what I see good and bad about the upcoming storm: Good -Nighttime heaviest precip: This will obviously end what melts from incoming sun and also will help to cool us down further. Precip looks to start in the later afternoon hours, and much of that should be rain along the coast, mix inland, but the heaviest should be after 0z and linger through the overnight. -Wind direction: The wind direction should be NNE or NE through much of the storm, scouring out much of what would be a torched boundary layer if we had east winds. This is likely why models are cooling down even though they vary in the amount of precip shown. -Strong easterly jet: This should provide a strong incoming moisture stream and strong lift due to the east-heading closed off upper low. There should be heavy banding associated with this in the zones in the main precip batch. Bad -Potential for the storm "skipping" over us: The low could head east too much initially before a phase occurs and dynamics lurch north to nail eastern SNE. The GFS and Euro show this with dual QPF maxes, one over the N VA area and one over eastern New England, with us sort of in a shaft zone. The GFS is likely overdone with this due to convective feedback errors robbing the CCB related precip, but it is a threat. A more moderate precip event could cut down significantly on accumulations since temps will be borderline. -Warm air from the low level jet: The NAM shows a massive warm surge coming in with its likely overdone precip swath. This would be more of a concern for eastern LI, but it could hamper things further west if the incoming jet is really that strong. -Earlier or later timing: We want as much of this to fall at night as possible. If more of it falls earlier or later, we probably see lesser amounts. A lot of the lighter hanging-back snow/mix that models generate from the main stuff over New England probably wouldn't stick for a lot of people. Right now, I think it will be a 4-8" event for most of us-ranging from 4" for NYC and western/central LI, to 8" just NW of the city. 3-6" west of I-287 due to lighter QPF, and 2-4" for eastern LI (east of the William Floyd Pkwy) due to mix. Hopefully models beef up QPF today and continue with the colder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We shall see. It's a very tough forecast, but I would bet on accumulations being significantly higher in a band over w. Suffolk than over NYC, due to more sustained heavier precip. and lack of urban heat island. If I had to forecast now, I'd go 2-4" urban ne NJ and NYC, 3-6" Nassau, 5-10" w. Suffolk and 3-6" Twin Forks. I'd also go for a band of 4-8" from Westchester/Putnam counties into sw CT, with 6-12" over interior se CT. Here's what I see good and bad about the upcoming storm: Good -Nighttime heaviest precip: This will obviously end what melts from incoming sun and also will help to cool us down further. Precip looks to start in the later afternoon hours, and much of that should be rain along the coast, mix inland, but the heaviest should be after 0z and linger through the overnight. -Wind direction: The wind direction should be NNE or NE through much of the storm, scouring out much of what would be a torched boundary layer if we had east winds. This is likely why models are cooling down even though they vary in the amount of precip shown. -Strong easterly jet: This should provide a strong incoming moisture stream and strong lift due to the east-heading closed off upper low. There should be heavy banding associated with this in the zones in the main precip batch. Bad -Potential for the storm "skipping" over us: The low could head east too much initially before a phase occurs and dynamics lurch north to nail eastern SNE. The GFS and Euro show this with dual QPF maxes, one over the N VA area and one over eastern New England, with us sort of in a shaft zone. The GFS is likely overdone with this due to convective feedback errors robbing the CCB related precip, but it is a threat. A more moderate precip event could cut down significantly on accumulations since temps will be borderline. -Warm air from the low level jet: The NAM shows a massive warm surge coming in with its likely overdone precip swath. This would be more of a concern for eastern LI, but it could hamper things further west if the incoming jet is really that strong. -Earlier or later timing: We want as much of this to fall at night as possible. If more of it falls earlier or later, we probably see lesser amounts. A lot of the lighter hanging-back snow/mix that models generate from the main stuff over New England probably wouldn't stick for a lot of people. Right now, I think it will be a 4-8" event for most of us-ranging from 4" for NYC and western/central LI, to 8" just NW of the city. 3-6" west of I-287 due to lighter QPF, and 2-4" for eastern LI (east of the William Floyd Pkwy) due to mix. Hopefully models beef up QPF today and continue with the colder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Through hr 21, heights are a tad lower out ahead of the storm than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We shall see. It's a very tough forecast, but I would bet on accumulations being significantly higher in a band over w. Suffolk than over NYC, due to more sustained heavier precip. and lack of urban heat island. If I had to forecast now, I'd go 2-4" urban ne NJ and NYC, 3-6" Nassau, 5-10" w. Suffolk and 3-6" Twin Forks. I'd also go for a band of 4-8" from Westchester/Putnam counties into sw CT, with 6-12" over interior se CT. Definitely could be-high bust potential all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Definitely could be-high bust potential all around. Bust potential as in we get more or less than currently anticipated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Through hr 21, heights are a tad lower out ahead of the storm than 6z. Slightly higher than 00z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 hr 27 precip up to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like a hit again and NW of GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Here's what I see good and bad about the upcoming storm: Good -Nighttime heaviest precip: This will obviously end what melts from incoming sun and also will help to cool us down further. Precip looks to start in the later afternoon hours, and much of that should be rain along the coast, mix inland, but the heaviest should be after 0z and linger through the overnight. -Wind direction: The wind direction should be NNE or NE through much of the storm, scouring out much of what would be a torched boundary layer if we had east winds. This is likely why models are cooling down even though they vary in the amount of precip shown. -Strong easterly jet: This should provide a strong incoming moisture stream and strong lift due to the east-heading closed off upper low. There should be heavy banding associated with this in the zones in the main precip batch. Bad -Potential for the storm "skipping" over us: The low could head east too much initially before a phase occurs and dynamics lurch north to nail eastern SNE. The GFS and Euro show this with dual QPF maxes, one over the N VA area and one over eastern New England, with us sort of in a shaft zone. The GFS is likely overdone with this due to convective feedback errors robbing the CCB related precip, but it is a threat. A more moderate precip event could cut down significantly on accumulations since temps will be borderline. -Warm air from the low level jet: The NAM shows a massive warm surge coming in with its likely overdone precip swath. This would be more of a concern for eastern LI, but it could hamper things further west if the incoming jet is really that strong. -Earlier or later timing: We want as much of this to fall at night as possible. If more of it falls earlier or later, we probably see lesser amounts. A lot of the lighter hanging-back snow/mix that models generate from the main stuff over New England probably wouldn't stick for a lot of people. Right now, I think it will be a 4-8" event for most of us-ranging from 4" for NYC and western/central LI, to 8" just NW of the city. 3-6" west of I-287 due to lighter QPF, and 2-4" for eastern LI (east of the William Floyd Pkwy) due to mix. Hopefully models beef up QPF today and continue with the colder look. a reaosnable forcast, to say the least, yet this storm ,with its specifics & high moisture content ( possible high warmth) is like playing russian Roulette...we shall see. at the very least it will be exciting to the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM looks better than 6z. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 30 precip knocking on the door of NYC. I don't see any major differences so far that would sound off an alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 precip shield Hr 30 - same as 36 hr 6z . 850`s a little further east at 12z however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Odd look at 33 despite a big hit. The closed off low is in VA for a while but elongated out into the Atlantic. Signs of a more Eastward jog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 30 precip knocking on the door of NYC. I don't see any major differences so far that would sound off an alarm. even the timing itself is still spot on. often when there r serious busts they show ugly head in delay or total change in start times. not in this case 1-3 pm has been target all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 33 steady precip arriving. This would be tomorrow afternoon right around 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 a reaosnable forcast, to say the least, yet this storm ,with its specifics & high moisture content ( possible high warmth) is like playing russian Roulette...we shall see. at the very least it will be exciting to the last minute Ratios are another X-factor-if we get into heavy banding it would increase ratios due to better lift and snowgrowth. If we have more moderate precip ratios would likely be lower. Borderline temps would mean a very wet and gloppy snow regardless, and ground temps shouldn't be a big issue at night and with temps this morning below freezing. I would hedge toward slightly below 10-1 for most, maybe 8-1. So 0.75" liquid as snow could be 6" or so in actuality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 if the storm travels over the bench mark we will get a significant snowfall...yea there might be some rain mixed in at times especially at the beginning but that happens with marginal temperature storms this time of year...this time of the year has produced many a wet snowfall for the area with temperatures near freezing...At the height of the storm temperatures should be near freezing...We all should see at least a little snow out of this...It could be a large wet snow and if that happens we could be dealing with power outages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 36 CCB taking over. Moderate precip just south of MMU. light snow north of that. Surface freezing line is hanging out in Orange County but coming south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ratios are another X-factor-if we get into heavy banding it would increase ratios due to better lift and snowgrowth. If we have more moderate precip ratios would likely be lower. Borderline temps would mean a very wet and gloppy snow regardless, and ground temps shouldn't be a big issue at night and with temps this morning below freezing. I would hedge toward slightly below 10-1 for most, maybe 8-1. So 0.75" liquid as snow could be 6" or so in actuality. But by same token with earlier version of Nam bringing in CCB for full fledged 12 hour time slot 7p-7am wouldnt be unusual to see those ratios rise to 12-1 & so even while halfing 1.75 QPF we could still hot a ft in the soty( though I think thats the outer limit of accumilation potential for this storm in CPK) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 36- Much better look mid level temp wise than 6z hr 42 850s comfortably east than where they were progged just 6 hrs ago Prob sim liquid , but colder aloft ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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