Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro Control is much wetter than OP for what its worth. I mean, when is it now wetter/more amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS gives NYC .75-1.00 QPF just like the op. It's drier than the last run. Are you sure its out already raleighwx didn't update yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't like how the gfs is ticking east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS gives NYC .75-1.00 QPF just like the op. It's drier than the last run. Gfs just looks very dry for some reason, doesn't really make sense to me as the low is pretty far north and it's deepening. There's a definite convective feedback problem though if you just look at hour 42 with that small intense blob to the storm's east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't like how the gfs is ticking east We saw a couple of weeks back how the GFS jumped on the more northerly solution several times only to back off as we approached the storm. The NAVGEM looks more like the euro with the ENE track off Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Gfs just looks very dry for some reason, doesn't really make sense to me as the low is pretty far north and it's deepening. There's a definite convective feedback problem though if you just look at hour 42 with that small intense blob to the storm's east. 6Z Navgem & RGEM still look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS looks fine, QPF bomb is hurting the precip shield but a solid forecaster knows it never verifies like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS looks fine, QPF bomb is hurting the precip shield but a solid forecaster knows it never verifies like that. I'd like to hear what the Mets on here think as well. I've been reading that there is a 'transition' as the storm gets going off shore --- thus creating a 'jump' or 'screw' area that misses out on the heavy stuff. Not trying to be negative, just trying to learn and assess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 We have seen this multiple times this winter where the GFS has the right idea but gets way too aggressive between 42 and 84 hours with the north or northwest trend. The Euro typically will slowly trend northwest while the GFS will tick south and east, leaving the NAM and SREF data the far most amplified. They usually will cave to the global models QPF forecasts. Yesterday I weighted 60/40 ECMWF/NCEP data respectively which left me with 0.75-1.25" QPF from northwest to southeast from about MMU to ISP. So I'm still pretty comfortable with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'd like to hear what the Mets on here think as well. I've been reading that there is a 'transition' as the storm gets going off shore --- thus creating a 'jump' or 'screw' area that misses out on the heavy stuff. Not trying to be negative, just trying to learn and assess... If we get an inch of liquid it would b hard to argue we were jumped The NAMs 2 inches yesterday werent really ever taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We have seen this multiple times this winter where the GFS has the right idea but gets way too aggressive between 42 and 84 hours with the north or northwest trend. The Euro typically will slowly trend northwest while the GFS will tick south and east, leaving the NAM and SREF data the far most amplified. They usually will cave to the global models QPF forecasts. Yesterday I weighted 60/40 ECMWF/NCEP data respectively which left me with 0.75-1.25" QPF from northwest to southeast from about MMU to ISP. So I'm still pretty comfortable with that. For snow lovers I guess the big question is how much of that is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For snow lovers I guess the big question is how much of that is snowI would think a good chunk of it is snow/ frozen due to the timing. It happens to be perfect this time as far as that goes. Overnight..If it was 12 hours different, it would be a different ballgame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If we get an inch of liquid it would b hard to argue we were jumped The NAMs 2 inches yesterday werent really ever taken seriously. I hear ya but when there are 2" qpfs to your south and north, you feel jumped. For big snows the qpf has got to be high given the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I would think a good chunk of it is snow/ frozen due to the timing. It happens to be perfect this time as far as that goes. Overnight.. If it was 12 hours different, it would be a different ballgame i think this is tremendously overrated. the benefit of nighttime is better ability to stick, especially on main roads. however when it comes to precip-type, as in what is falling from the sky, that really comes down to overall track (wind direction) and dynamics of precipitation. If we get the right combo of those things, it really wouldn't matter if it was 2pm or 2am. I have seen 8 inches of snow accumulate in early April here on the island...at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 For snow lovers I guess the big question is how much of that is snow That's going to come down to thermal profiles and precipitation rates. I think 3-6 is a good forecast west of NYC with 1-3 in NYC and LI. But that could easily end up higher. I just can pull the trigger on it yet given the marginal profiles all the way up to 900 hPa and uncertainties regarding the placement of the best lift and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NAVGEM may be proving itself as a useful piece of guidance as it never jumped on the GFS track near the DBM yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 storm center approaching TN/KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Right now if I had to make a forecast I'd go 1-3" for NYC, Long Island, eastern NJ, 2-4" for Orange County due to lack of QPF, and 3-6" for Western NJ zones, Westchester county, and Coastal Connecticut. Conservative for the city, but I think the bust potential is much higher there due to warmth. I think 3-6" IMBY seems a safe call, even the EURO probably would hit the low end of that. and I agree on the NAVGEM, I think it might have to have the automatic toss that the NOGAPS had removed, it actually has done well with this, very EURO esque. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Right now if I had to make a forecast I'd go 1-3" for NYC, Long Island, eastern NJ, 2-4" for Orange County due to lack of QPF, and 3-6" for Western NJ zones, Westchester county, and Coastal Connecticut. Conservative for the city, but I think the bust potential is much higher there due to warmth. I think 3-6" IMBY seems a safe call, even the EURO probably would hit the low end of that. and I agree on the NAVGEM, I think it might have to have the automatic toss that the NOGAPS had removed, it actually has done well with this, very EURO esque. -skisheep It was interesting that it took until the 18z run to get a solution similar to the 12z Euro after the 12z was a little more south with the precip. I would like to see what we come up with when the scores are posted. I couldn't find much detail in regard to that on the Navy site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It looks like we might be in between two QPF maxes. One over VA/DC and the other over Boston/SNE Would be a bummer if DC/BOS both got 12"+ while NYC struggles to get significant (4"+) snows due to lack of heavy precip to cool the boundary layer. 0z Euro actually ramped up the QPF totals for the Boston area, while staying mostly the same in our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It looks like we might be in between two QPF maxes. One over VA/DC and the other over Boston/SNE Would be a bummer if DC/BOS both got 12"+ while NYC struggles to get significant (4"+) snows due to lack of heavy precip to cool the boundary layer. 0z Euro actually ramped up the QPF totals for the Boston area, while staying mostly the same in our region We still get an inch plus of QPF on this map that's not exactly nothing. It would suck if we got passed over, but such is life, we can't win every storm, and this was really never a NYC special to begin with, it's always been borderline here, even on the epic GFS runs yesterday, temps were borderline. Still think a solid advisory event is possible for areas not in the immediate 5 boroughs. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I really laugh when I read *this was never a nyc special*.. what? Sne was out the game a few hours ago. And they have high qpf. It was never a sne storm ..or was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I actually wouldn't be surprised to see models amp up again today. The globals are still trending north and with more precip, the NCEP models backed off somewhat possibly to get closer to the globals. It's a very favorable pattern for a big storm, one of the best you could hope to get for March and precip always tends to go up as we approach the event. Remembering March 2001, models always tend to make a last minute adjustment north rather than south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 09z SREF hold serve..still very wet and amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 09z SREF hold serve..still very wet and amped Still about 1" QPF for NE NJ/NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still about 1" QPF for NE NJ/NYC? More. Probably around 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 6z GFS ensembles were ugly in terms of snowfall, slamming areas west of DC and then all of New England. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zsnowf072.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still about 1" QPF for NE NJ/NYC? It looks like around 1.5" for NYC. Over 1.75 to Western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I really laugh when I read *this was never a nyc special*.. what? Sne was out the game a few hours ago. And they have high qpf. It was never a sne storm ..or was it? Nah brother , this was always a MA storm first , then on Sunday nite the 0z GFS started filling in New England , and that was the first talk of us being jumped , but the models filled us in yesterday , but blasted New England as well . And now its true looks like you may see 2 inches outside DC and 2 inches in Boston ,. But if we get an inch of liquid and hlaf of that is snow , its more than many thought we would get just 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 09z SREF hold serve..still very wet and amped Slightly drier on the NW side, but these are standard minor fluctuations with every coastal low. BTW the 6z Hi-Res NAM actually changes most of NJ over to rain. I'll take that as a positive though considering it's bias to be overamped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.