Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think it's because it's so amped, once the low occludes like that its game over and changes to rain. It doesn't even hit new england..Take this run with a grain of salt SLP is quite a bit weaker, would have to think that hurts dynamics. This would be no good verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol it's still a good thump of snow but then changes over, you can look at it for yourself too. Who cares anyway it's the nam and the euro looks nothing like this Euro is too light for any meaningful snow so I do care lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol it's still a good thump of snow but then changes over, you can look at it for yourself too. Who cares anyway it's the nam and the euro looks nothing like this Getting ready for bed but anyway not as Optimistic as I was this afternoon and earlier tonight between Euro not Great and Nam trending Worse. Still 18-24 hrs for this to trend better or worse I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It would change to rain at HR 51, but not before a 1.00-1.5 QPF dump of wet snow. Also after hour 54 most of the precip lightens up. Wouldn't put too much into this solution though, at least the storm is still there and it hasn't trended towards the more southern models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 nam still has about 1.25-1.5 before the change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It would change to rain at HR 51, but not before a 1.00-1.5 QPF dump of wet snow. Also after hour 54 most of the precip lightens up. Wouldn't put too much into this solution though, at least the storm is still there and it hasn't trended towards the more southern models. it actually did shift south from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 nam still has about 1.25-1.5 before the change over Yeah I'll take 1.25" of QPF as snow any day, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It would change to rain at HR 51, but not before a 1.00-1.5 QPF dump of wet snow. Also after hour 54 most of the precip lightens up. Wouldn't put too much into this solution though, at least the storm is still there and it hasn't trended towards the more southern models. Really, for Some reason that important detail was left out. 1 to 1.5 frozen is still good in my book. Hoping that Nam hold and Gets colder over next few runs. Crazy how we are under 48 hrs and still not sure if this will be a foot of snow a couple inches of snow or mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 it actually did shift south from 0z Was referring to the fact that it still gets heavy precip into the area vs a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really, for Some reason that important detail was left out. 1 to 1.5 frozen is still good in my book. Hoping that Nam hold and Gets colder over next few runs. Crazy how we are under 48 hrs and still not sure if this will be a foot of snow a couple inches of snow or mostly rain. It did according to precip type maps. Skew-t/soundings would be more accurate though. Off to bed, why I stay up for the 6z nam is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Was referring to the fact that it still gets heavy precip into the area vs a scraper. Yea, its crazy it went from giving some parts of MA 3.5" to only 1" if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yea, its crazy it went from giving some parts of MA 3.5" to only 1" if that. Ya it only makes it so far north before stalling/spinning in circles. Southern ct hardly makes it in the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ya it only makes it so far north before stalling/spinning in circles. Southern ct hardly makes it in the good stuff. Hopefully it doesn't go more south - Come on stay up with us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 6z NAM is very snowy for Orange County.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Gfs is colder and dryer - Its crazy 42 hours out and ever single model has a different scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS looks terrible for the area. Very ragged and very low snow totals even for the NW. Ruh Roh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 6z NAM is very snowy for Orange County.. 06z NAM is spitting out 2.09" of QPF and 16.7" of snow for KSWF. I would be happy with half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS looks terrible for the area. Very ragged and very low snow totals even for the NW. Ruh Roh. cant say if I agree... GFS still shows around 1" pecip for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 cant say if I agree... GFS still shows around 1" pecip for the area Check out some of the snow maps for the 6z GFS. We are clearly in the 'screw zone' when the storm gets its act together. The NAM prints out a foot plus in NW NJ and the GFS shows 2 maybe 3" --- which is exactly what the Euro printed out. For big snows, folks better hope the NAM/SREF combo is right versus the GFS/Euro --- or the GFS/EURO make dramatic changes during the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Euro snowmap gives the area 6 + inches of snow and 18 + for parts of SNE. It seems colder than all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Euro snowmap gives the area 6 + inches of snow and 18 + for parts of SNE. It seems colder than all the models. Most of the accumulating snow comes Thursday night into Friday morning, per the Euro. I'd be pulling for the Euro solution right now, to be honest..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Most of the accumulating snow comes Thursday night into Friday morning, per the Euro. I'd be pulling for the Euro solution right now, to be honest..... Two part storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Norlun signature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Two part storm? Verbatim, on the Euro...yes. Not saying it's correct, but that 2nd shortwave that drops in Thursday night is mighty impressive looking. So, maybe we can blend GFS/Euro for tomorrow night into Thursday and see if the GFS picks up on part 2 Thursday night into Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 can you post the euro snow map bud? I have the accuweather pro map, so I can't post it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro Control is much wetter than OP for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro Control is much wetter than OP for what its worth. Red Flag for the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS gives NYC .75-1.00 QPF just like the op. It's drier than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro Control is much wetter than OP for what its worth. Yea that's a very good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yea that's a very good sign Maybe not much wetter, but the shift is towards us not away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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