Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 edit: sorry, it was out on a diff site for a while now and i forgot...it was really warm. doesnt show snow at all which is very weird. considering even under the best dynamics in the cbb, its still wet lol. Yeah I had a brain fart myself, I forgot the sauna that was the GGEM, very strange to show pretty much all rain, but that p-type map is always very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was hoping to have a Consensus by this time but some the Models are showing a Light to Moderate Event maybe a few inches and some are showing a MECS or even a HECS in the Nams case. Is it possible that the Foreign Models GGEM, Eukie, Euro jump aboard or will Nam and GFS trend backwards tomorrow ? I mean what is a difference of a foot between models /: Also is a new JMA out or coming out tonight as it has been one of the models showing a big hit ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 we are really cutting it close.... euro, ggem, ukie = minor or non event. gfs, nam, jma = major event. add some ensembles here and there and it furthers the mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah I had a brain fart myself, I forgot the sauna that was the GGEM, very strange to show pretty much all rain, but that p-type map is always very warm. yea...i had one too lol. anyway, while i think the ggem has been consistent in not have wild run to run swings the past several days like the gfs and euro have had...i am not sure how reliable it is within 48hrs on picking up dynamics, i think its a low resolution model if im not mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Spot on. Here in Kew Gardens betw LGA and JFK easily cost us 2-4 inches betw 2-6pm between moderate sleet, frz rain and light snow. we eeked out 11 inches but an hour's drive east you were into double totals(understood because of banding) but still would have liked to have seen 15-17. In any case, Im optimistic at this point that we will see 6+ this go arond and thats all you can ask in March and anything else is gravy! Right. And in this case, we won't have an initial primary low that will make a sleet/frz rain mess any sort of issue. The NAM, verbatim, could change us over to sleet as the event progresses, though; especially if you consider a model's tendency to underestimate warmth just above the surface...that LLJ off the water rips in its setup. The NAM might be too wrapped up anyway, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well said, 2/8 had a pretty long period of sleet as opposed to rain, this still has more time to become somewhat more clear. When do the next SREF's come out? Thanks. Another thing is that the precipitation at night helps. But as I've implied, I'm much more concerned about getting the heavy precipitation in our area to begin with, and the rest will take care of itself from there. I'm not saying that no one will have BL issues, but it's really just not a big concern of mine. I would have been mildly curious to see how the Euro would have handled the BL had we actually gotten heavy precipitation, though. The SREFs come out at around 2:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thanks. Another thing is that the precipitation at night helps. But as I've implied, I'm much more concerned about getting the heavy precipitation in our area to begin with, and the rest will take care of itself from there. I'm not saying that no one will have BL issues, but it's really just not a big concern of mine. I would have been mildly curious to see how the Euro would have handled the BL had we actually gotten heavy precipitation, though. The SREFs come out at around 2:30. Thanks, and I agree. Time after time people are so worried about BL temps and if snow will actually stick, if it comes down hard there is no need to worry, how long the snow lasts is an entirely different story. (Idc how long it stays now, I'm ready for spring after one more storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS hold serve Very encouraging. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS hold serve dang..howd u get em so fast? still not out on ncep site for me yet. edi: yea they didnt budge much, maybe a little less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 dang..howd u get em so fast? still not out on ncep site for me yet. Right? I still can't see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 dang..howd u get em so fast? still not out on ncep site for me yet. On SV. Maps are not great though but you can definitely tell the SREFS are pretty much unchaged. I honestly didn't expect them to back off anyway with the euro continuing its NW trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like a little more to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Does anyone have the Euro ensembles? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM more amped once again through 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is really amped, should be a weenie run..What a tough situation to be in for a forecaster and a weather enthusiast like myself. My excitement is being tamed by the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is really amped, should be a weenie run..What a tough situation to be in for a forecaster and a weather enthusiast like myself. My excitement is being tamed by the euro Yet peaked because of the slow North trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yet peaked because of the slow North trend. Well you can't deny one thing.. That being both the srefs and nam have been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 VV's exploding, H5 looks even better as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 VV's exploding, H5 looks even better as well Yep, another weenie run incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow - at the sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Any QPF totals for Tri-state and Temps on new Nam ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HR 42- 45 - 48 are wetter than the 0z , but at hr 48 , those 850 s get very close . Wana see those 48 hr 925 mb temps for NJ shore and LI Hr 54 , 2 nd run in a row the 850s come west . still looks like some pretty good rates . The model is seeing some mid level warmth , I Ddnt think thats just drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ehh its warmer again, dam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HR 42- 45 - 48 are wetter than the 0z , but at hr 48 , those 850 s get very close . Wana see those 48 hr 925 mb temps for NJ shore and LI I think it's because it's so amped, once the low occludes like that its game over and changes to rain. It doesn't even hit new england..Take this run with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ehh its warmer again, dam Warmer where Even North and West of City or just LI and close to coast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Any QPF totals for Tri-state and Temps on new Nam ? 1.5+ QPF easily, but if this run were to verify(which it won't) temps would be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SO a couple of you guys were loving the Run a few minutes ago now it is rain ? Rain will be a part of this storm, there are no two ways around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Warmer where Even North and West of City or just LI and close to coast ? By 54 it would be rain for everyone basically. But a very wired looking run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SO a couple of you guys were loving the Run a few minutes ago now it is rain ? lol it's still a good thump of snow but then changes over, you can look at it for yourself too. Who cares anyway it's the nam and the euro looks nothing like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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