Significant Ocean Storm March 5-7 2013 Discussion Part II

[JSantanaNYC]

I dont know what to think of the EURO.. there is more precip after the .50 (66hr).

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Moderate precip is exploding westward at 84 hours as that northern stream wave really strengthens and pulls moisture back. Perhaps it will give us another few tenths. 

 

we could use a slower southern stream to allow this late northern wave to pull it back sooner than 84hr.

[earthlight]

Inverted trough galore after 72 hours...total precip in NYC is around 1" maybe more.

[Ericjcrash]

LOL! The northern stream wave EXPLODES and becomes a closed 543 dam contour in Atlantic City, and almost another .25" of precip has extended back towards NYC. 

Maybe the Euro is high on drugs. That would be a bizzare soulution.

[Dark Energy]

Forget the sfc low track, whats up with the sfc high supplying the cold air?

[psv88]

Inverted trough galore after 72 hours...total precip in NYC is around 1" maybe more.

 

Upton mentioned this scenario in their Afternoon package. The norlun spicing things up a bit

[ny747pilot]

LOL! The northern stream wave EXPLODES and becomes a closed 543 dam contour in Atlantic City, and almost another .25" of precip has extended back towards NYC.

then moves it SE

[earthlight]

I think the inverted trough solution is unlikely to give us much snow...the main thing to take out of this run was that it ticked northwest again.

[Ericjcrash]

Inverted trough galore after 72 hours...total precip in NYC is around 1" maybe more.

Good luck with that ECMWF 

[nyblizz44]

winters and bizzare solutions go hand in hand. Do you realize if we hit a foot in this storm that we will be above average for the season simply on basis of 2 storms? Doesnt get much more bizzare than this. One things is for sure. LOTS of potential here& as always if the phase happens just at the right time & a 985 closes off in right position then we r smiling all the way to the snow bank

Maybe the Euro is high on drugs. That would be a bizzare soulution.

Bizzare 

[CTWeatherFreak]

So .. tomorrow night's 0z... think we'll sort things out by then?

[dbc]

So .. tomorrow night's 0z... think we'll sort things out by then?

Well I would friggin hope so, lol.

[Dsnowx53]

Well I would friggin hope so, lol.

 

 

Well I much prefer discussions of this nature rather than everyone over-analyzing the BL, so I like the drama  

[dbc]

Well I much prefer discussions of this nature rather than everyone over-analyzing the BL, so I like the drama

Lol, agreed.

[Ericjcrash]

winters and bizzare solutions go hand in hand. Do you realize if we hit a foot in this storm that we will be above average for the season simply on basis of 2 storms? Doesnt get much more bizzare than this. One things is for sure. LOTS of potential here& as always if the phase happens just at the right time & a 985 closes off in right position then we r smiling all the way to the snow bank

Bizzare 

3, and not really that odd. On the coast often its feast or famine. FWIW there were a few .5" clippers thrown in.

[SnowWisher]

I think the inverted trough solution is unlikely to give us much snow...the main thing to take out of this run was that it ticked northwest again.

Can anyone comment on what the Euro thermal profile looked like through 72 hrs for the metro areas; NYC, Long Island, and surrounding areas north and west of NYC etc? Thank you.

[Storm At Sea]

Did you not just see someone post about the annoyance of BL discussion? Just let it go already.

 

Can anyone comment on what the Euro thermal profile looked like through 72 hrs for the metro areas; NYC, Long Island, and surrounding areas north and west of NYC etc? Thank you.

[SnowWisher]

Did you not just see someone post about the annoyance of BL discussion? Just let it go already.

Yes sir I read that post but I don't get into banter. It's fine if you don't want to answer I will just wait for the free stuff. I've been on this board since the existence of wright weather and before that and choose to stay in the background and just read. This is a perfect example as to why I do. Even from a professional like yourself there is banter. Have a good night

[Dsnowx53]

A quick glance comparing hours 42 of the GFS and Euro shows that the Euro is not interacting as much with the shortwave that is diving to the SE from southeast Manitoba. The 546 dam contour wraps around that shortwave on the GFS, but remains cut off within itself on the Euro. Thus, the heights are not bent back as quickly on the Euro.

 

It definitely ticked stronger with the shortwave that initially phases from the departing ULL, which was a good sign. And it was interacting more with the aforementioned shortwave, but just not enough for the epic solutions. 

[RU848789]

Did you not just see someone post about the annoyance of BL discussion? Just let it go already.

no offense, but why wouldn't the thermal fields and boundary layer conditions and resultant precip types across the region, as predicted by what most would consider the best global model, be of interest in this forum?  I know there's BL uncertainty, but there's uncertainty about the track, about the intensity of the precip, about the strength of the CCB and dynamic cooling, so why wouldn't we be discussing all of these, despite the uncertainties?  Unless there's some reason to simply discount the Euro, i.e., if it didn't initialize properly or something like that. 

[NorthShoreWx]

I think it is reasonable to discuss the boundary layer on a Euro run less than 48 hours before the start of a borderline (for p-type) storm.  Five days ago it made less sense, but it is perfectly reasonable now...especially in a discussion thread.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

It has more to do with people wanted to know BL every single run, for every model, and at every single hour. It's way too much model hugging. 

[Storm At Sea]

The Euro continues to play catch up...just saying.

 

I think it is reasonable to discuss the boundary layer on a Euro run less than 48 hours before the start of a borderline storm.  Five days ago it made less sense, but it is perfectly reasonable now...especially in a discussion thread.

[Dsnowx53]

Reading through the forums during the late morning and early afternoon will get you annoyed very quickly with BL discussions. It turns into everyone bickering and arguing over which snowfall map is right, and people cancelling the event, or saying "bring on spring because this is clearly rain or nothing" kind of posts. It's much more important to discuss the actual synoptic setup which is leading to the heavy precipitation in the first place, since that is the uncertainty. Until we can get the areas of heavy precipitation nailed down, or even be certain that we're going to see heavy precipitation to begin with, it's tough to discuss. It's really not concrete at all.

 

I've always found that models will be too warm in the BL during heavy precipitation. And considering the water temperatures are not exactly warm this time of year, we have a dynamic system, and the winds would theoretically back towards the NE and N at the surface, then the BL should cool quickly, regardless of what any model shows. This is why I don't over-analyze the BL. If we had ripping SE winds, it would be different.

 

Models also tend to underestimate the amount of warm air aloft via a primary low or something of those sorts. This is why the NAM scenario, assuming it would actually take place, does yield concerns for eastern sections changing over to sleet, because you are able to more efficiently advect warmer air at the mid levels given how much stronger the winds are at those levels than they are at the surface. 

 

Remember with the 2/8/13 event, it was not really the BL that was the problem for areas whose totals got held down...it was the warm air just above​ the surface that was stingier than forecast. I mean, the BL was a problem at first, but plain rain was not nearly the hindrance that the sleet was. 

[Absolute Humidity]

FWIW, it does show a couple of inches CNJ and North, a couple as in 2 - 4 pasty inches.

[Dsnowx53]

It has more to do with people wanted to know BL every single run, for every model, and at every single hour. It's way too much model hugging. 

 

 

Yes, this! 

[Ericjcrash]

Reading through the forums during the late morning and early afternoon will get you annoyed very quickly with BL discussions. It turns into everyone bickering and arguing over which snowfall map is right, and people cancelling the event, or saying "bring on spring because this is clearly rain or nothing" kind of posts. It's much more important to discuss the actual synoptic setup which is leading to the heavy precipitation in the first place, since that is the uncertainty. Until we can get the areas of heavy precipitation nailed down, or even be certain that we're going to see heavy precipitation to begin with, it's tough to discuss. It's really not concrete at all.

 

I've always found that models will be too warm in the BL during heavy precipitation. And considering the water temperatures are not exactly warm this time of year, we have a dynamic system, and the winds would theoretically back towards the NE and N at the surface, then the BL should cool quickly, regardless of what any model shows. This is why I don't over-analyze the BL. If we had ripping SE winds, it would be different.

 

Models also tend to underestimate the amount of warm air aloft via a primary low or something of those sorts. This is why the NAM scenario, assuming it would actually take place, does yield concerns for eastern sections changing over to sleet, because you are able to more efficiently advect warmer air at the mid levels given how much stronger the winds are at those levels than they are at the surface. 

 

Remember with the 2/8/13 event, it was not really the BL that was the problem for areas whose totals got held down...it was the warm air just above​ the surface that was stingier than forecast. I mean, the BL was a problem at first, but plain rain was not nearly the hindrance that the sleet was. 

Well said, 2/8 had a pretty long period of sleet as opposed to rain, this still has more time to become somewhat more clear. When do the next SREF's come out?

[Ericjcrash]

ggem finally out and its a close to a huge hit but most of the area misses on the best cbb.

Looks like the UK, a hair better. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks like the UK, a hair better. 

 

edit: sorry, it was out on a diff site for a while now and i forgot...it was really warm. doesnt show snow at all which is very weird. considering even under the best dynamics in the cbb, its still wet lol.

[nyblizz44]

Reading through the forums during the late morning and early afternoon will get you annoyed very quickly with BL discussions. It turns into everyone bickering and arguing over which snowfall map is right, and people cancelling the event, or saying "bring on spring because this is clearly rain or nothing" kind of posts. It's much more important to discuss the actual synoptic setup which is leading to the heavy precipitation in the first place, since that is the uncertainty. Until we can get the areas of heavy precipitation nailed down, or even be certain that we're going to see heavy precipitation to begin with, it's tough to discuss. It's really not concrete at all.

 

I've always found that models will be too warm in the BL during heavy precipitation. And considering the water temperatures are not exactly warm this time of year, we have a dynamic system, and the winds would theoretically back towards the NE and N at the surface, then the BL should cool quickly, regardless of what any model shows. This is why I don't over-analyze the BL. If we had ripping SE winds, it would be different.

 

Models also tend to underestimate the amount of warm air aloft via a primary low or something of those sorts. This is why the NAM scenario, assuming it would actually take place, does yield concerns for eastern sections changing over to sleet, because you are able to more efficiently advect warmer air at the mid levels given how much stronger the winds are at those levels than they are at the surface. 

 

Remember with the 2/8/13 event, it was not really the BL that was the problem for areas whose totals got held down...it was the warm air just above​ the surface that was stingier than forecast. I mean, the BL was a problem at first, but plain rain was not nearly the hindrance that the sleet was. 

Spot on. Here in Kew Gardens betw LGA and JFK easily cost us 2-4 inches betw 2-6pm between moderate sleet, frz rain and light snow. we eeked out 11 inches but an hour's drive east you were into double totals(understood because of banding) but still would have liked to have seen 15-17. In any case, Im optimistic at this point that we will see 6+ this go arond and thats all you can ask in March and anything else is  gravy!