earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html GGEM has been out for a bit here.. That's the RGEM which runs only to 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html GGEM has been out for a bit here.. That's the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have WSI access, and it's been stuck on hour 0 for a while now. Btw, your "took the night off" bit was funny. Maybe we're better off with one less piece of data. Paralysis by analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Some interesting things I noticed gfs vs nam. 1st, pretty nice agreement with regards to 500mb low at 18z wednesday.... but then the differences start. Nam completely splits off/cuts off the 500mb low and does a loop de loop where gfs doesn't bc of a little closed pocket 5h vort over S CAN over the lakes. Interesting and major implications.... fun fun... here's to the Euro being nice time for bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's the RGEM which runs only to 48 hrs That link i gave you goes to 120 hours ..it got stuck at 49 hrs tonight however...normally it goes to 120 Edit: out to 51 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Maybe we're better off with one less piece of data. Paralysis by analysis You were right...Canadian maps are out on the p-type site and they are pretty tough to look at. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013030500/I_nw_g1_EST_2013030500_051.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You were right...Canadian maps are out on the p-type site and they are pretty tough to look at. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013030500/I_nw_g1_EST_2013030500_051.png Virtuallly all rain for everyone if I am interpreting it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Did the Euro initialize yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Virtuallly all rain for everyone if I am interpreting it right. yea...nothing to interpret. green globs are not good. it has a warm bias, we can hang on that at least for now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yea...nothing to interpret. green globs are not good. it has a warm bias, we can hang on that at least for now.... Seems like a ridiculous solution considering the positioning and heavy returns but the upper air features that we cannot see probably tell the tale. Not encouraging any way you slice it, warm bias or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can't say I see any exciting changes on the Euro through 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can't say I see any exciting changes on the Euro through 24 hours Maybe more interaction with the northern stream from what I am hearing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Maybe more interaction with the northern stream from what I am hearing? Yes definitely...but it's farther southeast with the height field on the East Coast to the east of the big shortwave/upper level low. So we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Maybe more interaction with the northern stream from what I am hearing? Yes. That retrograding vort max is much stronger and further west. Our bowling ball is even trying to bend towards it, so to speak. That being said, the height rises aren't any higher yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 From ORH WXman - Euro is northeast of 12z through 30 hours. We'll see if its enough for a good hit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's definitely ticking northward of 12z. It remains to be seen if it will cave completely to the NCEP solutions. Doesn't look like it to me, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro is a hot mess at 48 hours compared to the GFS and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro is a hot mess at 48 hours compared to the GFS and NAM A hot Mess is not the Words I was looking to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's definitely improved over 12z with the orientation aloft and the QPF totals are slightly higher and precipitation shield better oriented. But compared to the NCEP models...it is ugly. And now that we're 48 hours out...that is a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It definitely ticked further north at H5, and the surface low and precipitation ticked a bit further north as well, but not nearly to the extent of the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's definitely improved over 12z with the orientation aloft and the QPF totals are slightly higher and precipitation shield better oriented. But compared to the NCEP models...it is ugly. And now that we're 48 hours out...that is a bad sign. Would you say it resembles the Ukie at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Would you say it resembles the Ukie at least? I'm not sure what the Ukie showed past that one graphic which had around 0.10" ... The Euro has about 0.50" on the nose for NYC through 66 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's definitely improved over 12z with the orientation aloft and the QPF totals are slightly higher and precipitation shield better oriented. But compared to the NCEP models...it is ugly. And now that we're 48 hours out...that is a bad sign. The fact that it keeps adjusting North is somewhat encouraging though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 The fact that it keeps adjusting North is somewhat encouraging though. Yes, and a few hundred mile adjustment since last nights 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes, and a few hundred mile adjustment since last nights 00z run. But nothing more than .50 after hr 66? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes, and a few hundred mile adjustment since last nights 00z run. North trend is definitely encouraging, tomorrow's 12z runs will certainly be critical. This is a forecasting nightmare from a computer model standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Moderate precip is exploding westward at 84 hours as that northern stream wave really strengthens and pulls moisture back. Perhaps it will give us another few tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I am interested to see what the Euro ensembles will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It gon rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LOL! The northern stream wave EXPLODES and becomes a closed 543 dam contour in Atlantic City, and almost another .25" of precip has extended back towards NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.