JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 map my god..sharp cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 my god..sharp cutoff They're showing too much of the dual QPF max for my liking. The possible shaft zone in the middle is a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nonsensical. The always inaccurate thermal profile on the GFS combined with hideous convective feedback makes it clear to me that this is way off. Hate the clown maps even when it shows 2 feet. They are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS still looks great. 1.5" QPF very close to NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nonsensical. The always inaccurate thermal profile on the GFS combined with hideous convective feedback makes it clear to me that this is way off. Hate the clown maps even when it shows 2 feet. They are awful. Going by soundings, JFK should be snow sometime after 0z on the GFS, and it could still be a little too warm. There would definitely be more accums on at least the west-central portions of Long Island than the clown map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS still looks great. 1.5" QPF very close to NYC and LI. Good to see the ensembles not backing off, I still want the Euro to be on our side though...we will find out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nonsensical. The always inaccurate thermal profile on the GFS combined with hideous convective feedback makes it clear to me that this is way off. Hate the clown maps even when it shows 2 feet. They are awful. i agree...just posted it cuz someone asked. on the other hand, once we are inside the RAPs range...it did extremely well with the feb SNE event....its going to be a good tool to use imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 West of Long Island and Manhattan the clown maps are even more silly. You cannot trust the GFS thermal profile in these type of storms, soundings output included. The convective feedback also total messes with the qpf. The GEFS shows very clearly that the GFS indeed has massive convective feedback problems. Going by soundings, JFK should be snow sometime after 0z on the GFS, and it could still be a little too warm. There would definitely be more accums on at least the west-central portions of Long Island than the clown map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i agree...just posted it cuz someone asked. Yeah, you could've gotten it form multiple sources, and each source would have a decent map. They suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thanks. By the way some were talking, I assumed the GFS was showing 4-8" for NYC and the immediate suburbs, not 2-4" (and maybe only 1-2" south of I-78 in Central Jersey). With the 1" of liquid equivalent discussed, this means most of the precip is falling as rain. Huge departure from the NAM in terms of output. I can see how this is going to be a difficult forecast and why people like Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 are putting up 2-5" or 3-6" amounts. Kind of hard to say 2-16", lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Good to see the ensembles not backing off, I still want the Euro to be on our side though...we will find out shortly. Yeah, the Euro still bothers me just a bit. I definitely liked the way it trended at 12z, but it still does not have to cave all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think moreso than a north-south difference in the models, they are completely different storms ! It is not just "further north = more snow". The GFS is further south and not even more snow as opposed to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 looks like no ggem so far - an hour late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 West of Long Island and Manhattan the clown maps are even more silly. You cannot trust the GFS thermal profile in these type of storms, soundings output included. The convective feedback also total messes with the qpf. The GEFS shows very clearly that the GFS indeed has massive convective feedback problems. Look at the QPF max it generates southeast of where the comma head precip would be. The individual members may be having the same issues with feedback. That would shear out and diminish the comma head related precip too much most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, the Euro still bothers me just a bit. I definitely liked the way it trended at 12z, but it still does not have to cave all the way. Yea, the Ensembles were way north with the precip so I think it was foreshadowing more of a shift north at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, you could've gotten it form multiple sources, and each source would have a decent map. They suck. i never look at the these clowns...so where is there a better source for gfs snowfall maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Look at the QPF max it generates southeast of where the comma head precip would be. The individual members may be having the same issues with feedback. That would shear out and diminish the comma head related precip too much most likely. I noticed that as well but it still not blatantly as bad as the Op. End of the day, between you and me, I want the Euro on board and to maintain up until event time (as well as all the other models) before I feel at ease. It has been a crazy 12 hours waiting for this Euro run considering all the trends we saw at 12z and 18z and now again at 0z, let's hope we all see what we want in an hour or so. At 200 hours I predicted 12-18 for NYC metro, I am sticking by that even if I have to go down in flames while doing it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 looks like no ggem so far - an hour late. Maybe someone hacked it and changed it's awful thermal profile problems so it will show a snow bomb for us all, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's pretty reasonable...I could see Westchester doing a lot better because they might start off as snow during the day Wednesday while parts of NYC mix, and then stay snow longer if the low wraps up too much when it occludes and brings in warm air. I could see 12-18" for Dobbs Ferry if everything goes well, although that's asking a lot. If I had to make a forecast right now it'd be: NYC: 4-8" (lowest amounts in eastern Queens) Westchester, Rockland, NNJ, North Shore LI: 8-12" Eastern LI and central NJ: 3-6" Eastern areas may see more QPF, but may also waste more, so it could be a wash if they get the really big precip totals. This happened in the 2/8 blizzard: LI and CT had some sleet mix in, and rainfall during the day, but they ended up with the jackpot totals because the huge liquid/QPF made up for it. In the 2/8-9 storm, we blew 0.20" out of 3.87" liquid eqivalent on rain/mix. No complaints here. NAM to me looks like mostly a wet snow bomb with taint on the backend as it warms the mid levels. I didn't look at soundings, but I inferred from the partial thicknesses that there would be a sizeable sub freezing layer remaining below 850, so I wouldn't rule out sleet reaching the surface on the backend if the boundary isn't too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So far total model qpf for the event, pending on rates 30 - 50% lost to rain or poor rates 00z (NYC/NE-NJ) SREF : 1.50 - 1.75 NAM : 1.75 - 2.00 GFS: 0.80 - 1.10 RGEM : 0.25 - 0.50 (thru 48 hours) UKMET: 0.35 - 0.50 GGEM : took the night off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i never look at the these clowns...so where is there a better source for gfs snowfall maps? I don't know about better, they all are terrible and I've seen a few versions, all different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So far total model qpf for the event, pending on rates 30 - 50% lost to rain or poor rates 00z (NYC/NE-NJ) SREF : 1.50 - 1.75 NAM : 1.75 - 2.00 GFS: 0.80 - 1.10 RGEM : 0.25 - 0.50 (thru 48 hours) UKMET: 0.35 - 0.50 GGEM : took the night off Well if Bulk is at night and it comes down heavy majority should be snow IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 30-50% loss to rain? Where do you speak of? I think for most of C and N NJ along with area just outside of the city, it goes from nothing to moderate snow quite quickly. 700 mb RH and VV's align right at the cusp of 90%. Hence, it looks to be one of these events where the snow comes in like a wall. So far total model qpf for the event, pending on rates 30 - 50% lost to rain or poor rates 00z (NYC/NE-NJ) SREF : 1.50 - 1.75 NAM : 1.75 - 2.00 GFS: 0.80 - 1.10 RGEM : 0.25 - 0.50 (thru 48 hours) UKMET: 0.35 - 0.50 GGEM : took the night off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 30-50% loss to rain? Where do you speak of? I think for most of C and N NJ along with area just outside of the city, it goes from nothing to moderate snow quite quickly. 700 mb RH and VV's align right at the cusp of 90%. Hence, it looks to be one of these events where the snow comes in like a wall. Pending on guidance... some rain , some lighter snowfall rates with lack or minimal accumulations. Perhaps 25% to as much as half. That was a quick estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Earthlight, what site do you prefer for the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 According to SNE thread the ggem is running on wsi. Nothing yet on the canadian met sites or meteocentre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html GGEM has been out for a bit here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Earthlight, what site do you prefer for the Canadian? I use WSI which is a pay site and updates rapidly. The Canadian just initialized there...very late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 According to SNE thread the ggem is running on wsi. Nothing yet on the canadian met sites or meteocentre. I have WSI access, and it's been stuck on hour 0 for a while now. Btw, your "took the night off" bit was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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